Jump to content

The importance of a J.J. Hardy bounce-back

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 228
  • Created
  • Last Reply
SurhoffRules Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

SurhoffRules

Posted
Posted
A lot of posters wrote off Hardy after last year, but he's shown this year how valuable he is when he's healthy. Now he needs to stay healthy.

Taking just his extensions with us and assuming we don't pick up his 2018 option, we will pay him around 60.5 million for 2012-2017.

His current BB ref WAR over that period is 12.1 with a little over a season to go, making him about a $5M/WAR production.

Just for fun, let's say he finished this year and next at 2.0 wins each season (although I think he could outperform that next year with health). That would put him at 4.2M per win over the course of his extensions.

I don't know exactly was a win is worth these days, but I'm pretty sure that's right in the ballpark.

I think JJ Hardy contract was a good value for both the player and the team. I've been happy to have him on the Os for the last several years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

Posted
Posted
Taking just his extensions with us and assuming we don't pick up his 2018 option, we will pay him around 60.5 million for 2012-2017.

His current BB ref WAR over that period is 12.1 with a little over a season to go, making him about a $5M/WAR production.

Just for fun, let's say he finished this year and next at 2.0 wins each season (although I think he could outperform that next year with health). That would put him at 4.2M per win over the course of his extensions.

I don't know exactly was a win is worth these days, but I'm pretty sure that's right in the ballpark.

I think JJ Hardy contract was a good value for both the player and the team. I've been happy to have him on the Os for the last several years.

Agreed. I wonder if he'll retire an Oriole when his contract is up. He's pretty banged up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
bobmc Hangout Grand Counsel

bobmc

Posted
Posted

"A viewer of “Wall to Wall Baseball” on Saturday asked why shortstop J.J. Hardy always takes the first pitch. I hadn’t really given it much thought, but Hardy offered confirmation and a smile yesterday and added, “You never noticed that?”

Hardy estimated that he’s swung at the first pitch about 10 times this season. Last night, he took a knuckle-curve for a ball in the second inning before homering, a 95 mph fastball for a strike in the fourth before walking, a 97 mph fastball for a strike in the sixth before flying out and a 94 mph fastball for a ball in the eighth before walking.

Hardy is 1-for-5 with two RBIs on the first pitch of an at-bat, and he knows that the hit came off the Angels’ Tim Lincecum. It was an RBI single in the sixth inning of a July 10 game at Camden Yards."

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2016/09/notes-on-rotation-hardy-and-tonights-game.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
Posted

I often wonder if savvy veterans do stuff like this all year long, just to save the tendency breaker for a big spot.

By this point pitchers know they can first pitch strike him relatively safely. I'll be interested to see whether coming down to the wire he breaks character any, and whether he can get any kind of short term results boost.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
He always ranks near the bottom in first-pitch swing percentage. This year he's at 3.8%, which is low even for him (8.1% career). That translates to 14 first-pitch swings in 370 PA.

Thank Jesus, someone needs to. So much for the veteran presence that would set the tone for the young guys theory(Ben Zobrist). Hardy's had one of the more underrated season's by an Oriole in recent memory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted

J.J. Hardy’s power has gone missing. The Orioles shortstop has hit 20-or-more dingers five times — including a career high 30 in 2011 — but he has just 27 over the last three seasons. Injuries have been the primary reason.

Hardy had a lower back problem in 2014 — “I could barely bend over and tie my shoes” — which made aggressive swings impossible. Last year he tore the labrum in his left shoulder, which severely compromised his ability to get extension.

There was another injury this year — a foot fracture that cost him seven weeks — but this one wasn’t a power sapper. Hardy feels good physically and has been “hitting the ball farther than I ever have in batting practice.”

Translating that power to games has been made difficult by recent history.

“I had to change my approach because of the injuries and I’ve had about 1,000 at bats with that changed approach,” explained the 34-year-old infielder. “I need to get the old approach back. I’d like to get back to driving the ball — I’d like to get back to swinging for the fences — but it’s not as easy as just changing overnight. We’re kind of working on that.”

Hardy hit his ninth home run of the season a few hours after we spoke.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-refsnyders-plan-doziers-bananas-santana-hardy-wainwright-more/

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
Thank Jesus, someone needs to. So much for the veteran presence that would set the tone for the young guys theory(Ben Zobrist). Hardy's had one of the more underrated season's by an Oriole in recent memory.

I think 3.8% is overly low. With those numbers and Hardy's decline in power it would be foolish for a pitcher to not pump in strike one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


×
×
  • Create New...