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"You know we are gonna participate in the Rule 5 Draft."(OF Rickard from Tampa)

weams

By weams
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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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Lough's minor league ISO was in the .150-.170 range. Rickard's is in the .080-.140 range. Lough's OBP fell off something like .050. Rickard's will probably fall off more.

That would put him at .340, which would be way better than Lough. I don't think Lough has done well enough to preclude the O's giving Rickard a chance to stick.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Lough's minor league ISO was in the .150-.170 range. Rickard's is in the .080-.140 range. Lough's OBP fell off something like .050. Rickard's will probably fall off more.

I agree this is a worry. Rickard's line reminds me a bit of former Orioles prospect Matt Angle, who always put up good OBP's in the minors but couldn't do it in the majors (in limited opportunities). For that matter, Hoes kind has a similar line.

Hoes: .288/.369/.383

Angle: .279/.366/.359

Rickard: .283/.390/.387

Still, his very strong line in 2015 and his good performance in the Dominican Winter League is encouraging. I guess we'll see what he's got in three months.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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That would put him at .340, which would be way better than Lough. I don't think Lough has done well enough to preclude the O's giving Rickard a chance to stick.

I'd give Rickard a chance. But I don't think you can count on a .340. He might do it, but there are non-linearities when you have no power but walk a lot in the minors. Also, he only has 89 AAA ABs. There's a lot of uncertainty there, a lot of translation.

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Number5 Hangout Grand Counsel

Number5

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I'd give Rickard a chance. But I don't think you can count on a .340. He might do it, but there are non-linearities when you have no power but walk a lot in the minors. Also, he only has 89 AAA ABs. There's a lot of uncertainty there, a lot of translation.

Looks like he was told to unbutton his shirt a little bit and work on hitting the ball with authority in winter ball. Strikeouts are up a bit, and power numbers seem to be up considerably from what he had been posting up to now in his minor league career.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Looks like he was told to unbutton his shirt a little bit and work on hitting the ball with authority in winter ball. Strikeouts are up a bit, and power numbers seem to be up considerably from what he had been posting up to now in his minor league career.

We'll see. I'm skeptical that you can turn up your power a lot with no other ill effects.

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CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

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More from fangraphs on KATOH and projecting the rule 5 prospects:

Due to the difficulty of identifying Rule 5 eligible players, I neglected to include Rickard in my Rule 5 preview. But if I had a time machine, I?d go back and make him the first player I mention. The former ninth-round pick had a break-out year in 2015, slashing .321/.427/.447 across three levels of the minors: High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Rickard doesn?t hit for much power, but does an excellent job of controlling the strike zone: he walked nearly as often as he struck out last year. He also runs well, which should come in handy in the outfield. Rickard was pretty bad in 2014, so it remains to be seen if he sustains his 2015 breakout. But if he does, the Orioles might have hit the jackpot with this pick. Rickard was the only player from KATOH?s top 100 (#98) who was taken in the Rule 5.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-yesterdays-rule-5-selections/

Again, I continue to love this pick.

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