Kimbrel goes to Boston

[SteveO]

Since 2010 Kimbrel was worth 13.4 WAR. O'Day was worth 11.9 WAR and missed most of 2011. I think he's in the same stratosphere. Kimbrel has had an ERA+ decline 4 straight years. Kimbrel is a better player but they're in the same stratosphere.

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Kimbrel closes games, O'Day does not. I have no doubt that O'Day could, till he does that day in and day out at the level Kimbrel has there is no comparison.

You all can't pretend like the fact one guy closes and the other does not has no bearing on their value. It does, a lot.

[Malike]

Kimbrel closes games, O'Day does not. I have no doubt that O'Day could, till he does that day in and day out at the level Kimbrel has there is no comparison.

You all can't pretend like the fact one guy closes and the other does not has no bearing on their value. It does, a lot.

I choose not to believe that it's harder to get 3 outs in the 9th then it is the 8th.

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[Can_of_corn]

I choose not to believe that it's harder to get 3 outs in the 9th then it is the 8th.

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How many blown 9th innning saves does O'Day have?

[Il BuonO]

Unfortunately they have the farm to support moves like this.

Kimbrel is one of the few real difference makers out of the pen.

And so is Britton. Unfortunately, the Orioles farm is in disrepair, but it's exactly the type of deal they should be looking to make for him.

[Machado13]

Sons of Sam Horn are not happy with this trade.

Majority of posters saying this is a massive, massive overpay.

[Malike]

How many blown 9th innning saves does O'Day have?

Less than Kimbrel does!

[Stotle]

Or they could sign O'Day and him and Kimbrel both.

O'Day is very good but Kimbrel is a step up.

And they get Kimbrel on a 3/$37.5 MM. Better odds he remains healthy/effective over that time than O'Day staying healthy/effective over his 3/$30 MM or so.

[Stotle]

Keep in mind the top two pieces here are kids who play positions where Boston already has a young, cost-controlled, potential superstar locked-in at the major league level. It'd be like Baltimore having a top 100 3B prospect at Frederick/Bowie. Neither of these players were being depended upon for the Red Sox long term plans. Each was trade bait; just a question of how they'd be used. Still more to deal from, too, but I think Boston goes after a top tier FA starter.

[weams]

Keep in mind the top two pieces here are kids who play positions where Boston already has a young, cost-controlled, potential superstar locked-in at the major league level. It'd be like Baltimore having a top 100 3B prospect at Frederick/Bowie. Neither of these players were being depended upon for the Red Sox long term plans. Each was trade bait; just a question of how they'd be used. Still more to deal from, too, but I think Boston goes after a top tier FA starter.

That makes sense. I would love that have that level of redundancy.

And I still would not spend it on a closer in the off-season.

[Can_of_corn]

Keep in mind the top two pieces here are kids who play positions where Boston already has a young, cost-controlled, potential superstar locked-in at the major league level. It'd be like Baltimore having a top 100 3B prospect at Frederick/Bowie. Neither of these players were being depended upon for the Red Sox long term plans. Each was trade bait; just a question of how they'd be used. Still more to deal from, too, but I think Boston goes after a top tier FA starter.

I would love to have a top 100 3B prospect at Frederick/Bowie.

Three years isn't that long in the grand scheme of things.

[Stotle]

I would love to have a top 100 3B prospect at Frederick/Bowie.

Three years isn't that long in the grand scheme of things.

Okay, but Bogaerts isn't a FA until 2020 and Betts isn't until 2021. So that's 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 that Guerra and Margot would be redundant. And the Red Sox have other options for capable, cheap, in-house back-ups during that time.

That doesn't make it a "value" trade -- but there's something to be said for getting Kimbrel on a 3/$37.5.

[Can_of_corn]

Okay, but Bogaerts isn't a FA until 2020 and Betts isn't until 2021. So that's 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 that Guerra and Margot would be redundant. And the Red Sox have other options for capable, cheap, in-house back-ups during that time.

That doesn't make it a "value" trade -- but there's something to be said for getting Kimbrel on a 3/$37.5.

I know what you meant.

I was just taking the opportunity to remind folks that Manny really isn't under team control that much longer.

[Il BuonO]

Okay, but Bogaerts isn't a FA until 2020 and Betts isn't until 2021. So that's 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 that Guerra and Margot would be redundant. And the Red Sox have other options for capable, cheap, in-house back-ups during that time.

And from what I've read they don't project with the upside of Bogaerts or Betts.

[Stotle]

And from what I've read they don't project with the upside of Bogaerts or Betts.

I think both are a little better than the public reports, but also come with proximity risk. Margot is a legit long-term CF fix for the Padres, and that's a very big need for them. Guerra took big steps forward this year on both sides of field -- scout clocked 100 mph from shortstop and the lower-half working much better. That said, I really do agree with you. Tough to call Guerra or Margot comparable talents when Betts/Bogaerts are potential 6 win players, annually.

[Stotle]

I know what you meant.

I was just taking the opportunity to remind folks that Manny really isn't under team control that much longer.

Absolutely. It'll be interesting to see how Baltimore handles him. Also, with Wieters on another year, there's even more uncertainty as to how the 25-man shapes up over the next three years. Seems like it's essentially Jones/Machado/Schoop and then who knows? There's a chance Sisco ends-up a long-term piece at either C or an outfield corner, which would help. But moving Britton and getting one or two more cheap, cost-controlled pieces, would certainly help. And if Manny can't be extended then the minor-league depth is going to be even more important come 2018.