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neveradoubt

By neveradoubt
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paulcoates Veteran All-Star

paulcoates

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This is gonna be the offseason that a lot of people look back on as a point in time where salaries just got completely out of hand. A completely average player is now worth $10M a year? Cespedes will make 50x what a rookie makes now.

The price of baseball is going up by a whole lot over the next 5 years, which means a lot more risk in contracts. I wonder how Pete is going to react to having this much volatility tied up in big contracts at many positions on his team?

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

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Terrible deal by mets but also amazing that he shot down nats offer. They can't get anyone to take their money except Murphy who was probably not getting anything close from any other team.
Keep in mind the Nats offer was $10M more than ours, which wasn't pulled until Davis signed.
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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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I think there is at least a decent possibility Cespedes will end up leaving money on the table long term as I expect him not to be able to opt out and do better next offseason which will leave him in a 3 year/$75M contract and very little contract to follow. He will need to get better than 2/$25 on his next deal if he doesn't opt out in order to come out ahead. Maybe he will age a lot better than I expect him to.

Interesting deal to say the least.

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Plan A is to have a good year and take the opt out. The market for bats is pretty thin next year, and teams such as the Yankees that aren't players now could be by then. If he puts up a decent year, he should be about to get something like 4/$90 or 5/$100. I think the odds are >50% he will have a pretty good year at Age 30 and be in roughly the same position next year for an Alex Gordon type of deal.

If he has an off year next year, Plan B is to bounce back in years 2 and 3, get a QO which will be about $20M at that point, or another 2-3 year deal.

He would have to be bad for three years in a row to get completely shut out after year 3. Seems like a good gamble to take, and lately the market seems to be rewarding greed.

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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Plan A is to have a good year and take the opt out. The market for bats is pretty thin next year, and teams such as the Yankees that aren't players now could be by then. If he puts up a decent year, he should be about to get something like 4/$90 or 5/$100. I think the odds are >50% he will have a pretty good year at Age 30 and be in roughly the same position next year for an Alex Gordon type of deal.

If he has an off year next year, Plan B is to bounce back in years 2 and 3, get a QO which will be about $20M at that point, or another 2-3 year deal.

He would have to be bad for three years in a row to get completely shut out after year 3. Seems like a good gamble to take, and lately the market seems to be rewarding greed.

Good take. It's a no lose for both parties. They can both win and the Mets can get a comp pick out of this next offseason. Spend the money while they can before they have to lock up their SP's. Good news for O's fans is that this makes the Mets even bigger favorites to win the NL East.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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This is gonna be the offseason that a lot of people look back on as a point in time where salaries just got completely out of hand. A completely average player is now worth $10M a year? Cespedes will make 50x what a rookie makes now.

The price of baseball is going up by a whole lot over the next 5 years, which means a lot more risk in contracts. I wonder how Pete is going to react to having this much volatility tied up in big contracts at many positions on his team?

Why would the price of baseball be going up over the next five years? The only reason that would be true would be if many more people were interested in baseball and willing to spend money on it. It certainly wouldn't be going up just because owners decided to spend more on payroll.

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Uli2001 Hangout Grand Counsel

Uli2001

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I think there is at least a decent possibility Cespedes will end up leaving money on the table long term as I expect him not to be able to opt out and do better next offseason which will leave him in a 3 year/$75M contract and very little contract to follow. He will need to get better than 2/$25 on his next deal if he doesn't opt out in order to come out ahead. Maybe he will age a lot better than I expect him to.

Interesting deal to say the least.

I remember back when the Rangers signed a young Alex Rodriguez for 10/250. It was considered an insane contract by everyone. Now, it looks thrifty.

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Uli2001 Hangout Grand Counsel

Uli2001

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This is gonna be the offseason that a lot of people look back on as a point in time where salaries just got completely out of hand. A completely average player is now worth $10M a year? Cespedes will make 50x what a rookie makes now.

The price of baseball is going up by a whole lot over the next 5 years, which means a lot more risk in contracts. I wonder how Pete is going to react to having this much volatility tied up in big contracts at many positions on his team?

Oops. Wrong post replied to.

I remember back when the Rangers signed a young Alex Rodriguez for 10/250. It was considered an insane contract by everyone. Now, it looks thrifty.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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It is almost a no lose for the Mets, but saying there is no possible lose for Cespedes is incorrect. He could certainly lose 25M dollars from what was available. It isn't even difficult to imagine. Bat slows a bit, major injury, significantly loss of defensive value due to age. Who knows where he could be in 3 years. Now, the consolation prize is that he is guaranteed at least 75M so nobody is crying for him, but he could certainly end up leaving significant money on the table.

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If he has even a solid year I would be shocked if he doesn't opt out. So long as he doesn't get injured/fall off a cliff in 2016 I think he likely makes out just fine.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Oops. Wrong post replied to.

I remember back when the Rangers signed a young Alex Rodriguez for 10/250. It was considered an insane contract by everyone. Now, it looks thrifty.

What was the free agent value of a win from 2001-2010? I'd guess it started out around $3M and ended up at maybe $5 or $6M. If the average was $4M they were paying for 62 wins and he gave the Rangers and Yanks 71. It was a fair deal with some excess value. Today at $7M or so a win it would be better, but a 25-year-old ARod (or Harper or Machado or Trout) would cost more in 2016 dollars.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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What was the free agent value of a win from 2001-2010? I'd guess it started out around $3M and ended up at maybe $5 or $6M. If the average was $4M they were paying for 62 wins and he gave the Rangers and Yanks 71. It was a fair deal with some excess value. Today at $7M or so a win it would be better, but a 25-year-old ARod (or Harper or Machado or Trout) would cost more in 2016 dollars.

I hear you, but your argument is a bit circular like all cost per wins arguments like this. Arod's contract contributed to the increase in the cost per wins on the free agent market, so they are not completely independent. It's like averaging the cost of driving a mile across different car models to justify the expense of buying a Mercedes versus a Toyota.

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paulcoates Veteran All-Star

paulcoates

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Why would the price of baseball be going up over the next five years? The only reason that would be true would be if many more people were interested in baseball and willing to spend money on it. It certainly wouldn't be going up just because owners decided to spend more on payroll.

I wonder if there are owners who simply won't want to or be able to spend a much larger that current percentage on just one player? If so, I would imagine the larger markets would see an greater increase in those types of players

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