6 Predictions for the Winter Meetings: #2: Orioles sign Jason Heyward

[NATTYBO's]

He doesn't need his power to develop. He's worth it at his current level of production. The possibility of further gains on offense is gravy.

If you are the sort that only wants to give huge contracts to power guys or someone who demands power from RF then Heyward isn't the player for you.

I am a novice when it comes to advanced metrics but what is it within WAR that rewards players? Heyward hasn't had an OPS a over .800 since 2012. I personally would rather save the money for Manny who showing offensive progression.

[baltfan]

I would frontload his contract for three years give him an opt out with the hope that because the back years are lower he will opt out. You then effectively sign him to a three year deal.

[Dark Helmet]

There's a few guys you can automatically cross off the wish list. Heyward, Gordon, Greinke, and Cueto. Probably Upton too, unless he'll take a 1 year deal to try and up his value some. Other than that, start looking at the non tender lists for who can help the most. It's obvious this winter will be too "pricey" for the Orioles.

[Can_of_corn]

I am a novice when it comes to advanced metrics but what is it within WAR that rewards players? Heyward hasn't had an OPS a over .800 since 2012. I personally would rather save the money for Manny who showing offensive progression.

Heyward gets a lot of value from his baserunning and defense.

[Can_of_corn]

I would frontload his contract for three years give him an opt out with the hope that because the back years are lower he will opt out. You then effectively sign him to a three year deal.

I'd rather backload it and watch him opt out anyway.

[baltfan]

I'd rather backload it and watch him opt out anyway.

Me too but the Orioles probably aren't willing to take the risk he doesn't.

[NATTYBO's]

Heyward gets a lot of value from his baserunning and defense.

If we want to retain Manny there's no way we sign Heyward....Manny is already a much better player at a younger age.

[El Gordo]

I am a novice when it comes to advanced metrics but what is it within WAR that rewards players? Heyward hasn't had an OPS a over .800 since 2012. I personally would rather save the money for Manny who showing offensive progression.

Check out Roberto Clemente's offensive numbers through age 25. Heyward's are better. Not to say he will develop into Clemente II but the potential is there.

[Can_of_corn]

Me too but the Orioles probably aren't willing to take the risk he doesn't.

Oh no, seven more years of Heyward.

Woe is me!

Odds are good that the escalating rise in the value of a win will be greater then his decline.

[Dark Helmet]

If we want to retain Manny there's no way we sign Heyward....Manny is already a much better player at a younger age.

The Orioles can't afford Manny. Improve the team now, and enjoy Manny until he signs elswhere.

[Can_of_corn]

If we want to retain Manny there's no way we sign Heyward....Manny is already a much better player at a younger age.

Manny 19-22 17.7 rWAR 16.6 fWAR

Heyward 20-23 18.4 rWAR 16.5 fWAR

Much better?

[NATTYBO's]

Manny 19-22 17.7 rWAR 16.6 fWAR

Heyward 20-23 18.4 rWAR 16.5 fWAR

Much better?

Manny took a huge leap forward this year with OPS this year...his injuries from 2014 are dragging those numbers down. I don't think there's one GM in baseball who wouldn't prefer Manny over Heyward. Sometimes you just need to use the eye test and the eye test doesn't justify a $200MM contract for Heyward.

[Can_of_corn]

Manny took a huge leap forward this year with OPS this year...his injuries from 2014 are dragging those numbers down. I don't think there's one GM in baseball who wouldn't prefer Manny over Heyward. Sometimes you just need to use the eye test and the eye test doesn't justify a $200MM contract for Heyward.

Injuries are an important part of projecting players. For what it is worth Heyward was also hampered by injuries during that time player.

How much of Heyward have you seen that you trust your eyes over overwhelming evidence?

As I said earlier some folks require big power numbers for a large contract for a CO. You should probably just own up to being one of those people.

[NATTYBO's]

Injuries are an important part of projecting players. For what it is worth Heyward was also hampered by injuries during that time player.

How much of Heyward have you seen that you trust your eyes over overwhelming evidence?

As I said earlier some folks require big power numbers for a large contract for a CO. You should probably just own up to being one of those people.

I value Power and OPS more then base running when valuing players...Ricky Henderson would cash in nowadays

[Can_of_corn]

I value Power and OPS more then base running when valuing players...Ricky Henderson would cash in nowadays

So how much have you actually seen of Heyward? Couple hundred games? You also follow the Braves maybe?