Fangraphs: Noting Kevin Gausman (Extend Gausman now!)

[Spy Fox]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/noticing-kevin-gausman/

An encouraging take on our favorite recently de-spectacled pitcher.

"And there are some reasons to think there?s a good deal of upside left in Gausman. He?s thrown the ball like a three-win pitcher over the course of his career but it wouldn't be shocking to see a 4-5 WAR season in the near future. For one, his strikeout rate was up and his walk rate was down in 2015 compared to 2014. The only thing that bit him was a increase home run rate, and while that?s a concern, when you pair it with a solid increase in Soft% allowed and a 3.4-point drop in Contact%, you?ve got yourself a nice little trend overall."

"If he can develop his other offerings even a little more as he ages, he could be extremely dangerous. There's definitely potential for at least one of his slider or splitter to become consistently above average."

"It's a strange situation overall in that the Orioles haven't attempted to push Gausman terribly hard over the first couple of years of his career...That arrangement has kept him out of the headlines, but it might also give the Orioles a shot to lock up a potentially great pitcher for pennies on the dollar."

[Il BuonO]

This line of thinking is probably lost on some here, but as a small to mid market team the Orioles have to be creative when it comes to locking up their homegrown players. And yes, there's little risk involved when you do it before not after a breakout season.

A low innings number isn?t an argument in favor of Gausman as a good pitcher, but it is a small reason why we?re less likely to notice him and realize he?s still on a track for a really nice career.

Consider, instead, his 2014 and 2015 seasons as one unit. It?s 225.2 innings of work over 37 starts and eight relief outings. That?s a bit more than a full season, but it?s in the neighborhood of a full season. Over those two years he?s produced a 3.6 WAR and 3.3 RA9-WAR, which would be very good marks for a pitcher in his first or second full season.

....It?s a strange situation overall in that the Orioles haven?t attempted to push Gausman terribly hard over the first couple of years of his career. Perhaps it cost them in 2014, but given that they made the ALCS, it?s hard to make that case. As a result, Gausman has only burned through one year of service time and hasn?t logged a ton of mileage on his arm. That arrangement has kept him out of the headlines, but it might also give the Orioles a shot to lock up a potentially great pitcher for pennies on the dollar. If he already had two years of service and a pair of 170-plus inning seasons under his belt, the cost of an extension would be much higher.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/noticing-kevin-gausman/

[Can_of_corn]

Who was the last starting pitcher the O's extended? Was it Mussina?

[Il BuonO]

Yeah, and he had a better track record. I did like how author combined seasons to show value. I'm thinking of doing the same with my wife.

[Frobby]

Already a thread, although without any replies:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/150963-Fangraphs-Noting-Kevin-Gausman

At what price is this worthwhile?

[backwardsk]

Who was the last starting pitcher the O's extended? Was it Mussina?

When was the last starting pitcher that made it to FA that was worth resigning? Was it Mussina?

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[Can_of_corn]

Yeah, and he had a better track record. I did like how author combined seasons to show value. I'm thinking of doing the same with my wife.

I'd be willing to consider it.

Ownership's record makes me think he wouldn't.

[Can_of_corn]

When was the last starting pitcher that made it to FA that was worth resigning? Was it Mussina?

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Bedard, Guthrie on a team friendly deal, Tillman after the 2014 season.

[Il BuonO]

Already a thread, although without any replies:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/150963-Fangraphs-Noting-Kevin-Gausman

At what price is this worthwhile?

Obviously, I never saw the thread. And I think the terms laid out in the piece are fairly straightforward. Did you read it?

[backwardsk]

Bedard, Guthrie on a team friendly deal, Tillman after the 2014 season.

Tillman made it to FA?

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[Il BuonO]

As a refresher, $30 million over five years with a couple of $12-14mil options. That's a lot less downside risk with about $6 million AAV even if he only turns into a closer. Heck, at current rates Britton will sail past that in arbitration.

[Can_of_corn]

Tillman made it to FA?

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That would be why I said "after the 2014 season".

[Frobby]

Who was the last starting pitcher the O's extended? Was it Mussina?

Probably Scott Erickson, who signed a 5-year deal in the offseason of 1998-1999.

[Frobby]

As a refresher, $30 million over five years with a couple of $12-14mil options. That's a lot less downside risk with about $6 million AAV even if he only turns into a closer. Heck, at current rates Britton will sail past that in arbitration.

Let's assume, for sake of argument, that Gausman reaches the level Tillman was at in 2012-14 for the next few years. I'm guessing his comp on a year-to-year basis would look something like:

$500k

$3.5 mm (Tillman got $4.3 mm but he had more service time and had two 200-inning seasons under his belt)

$6.0 mm

$9.0 mm

$12.0 mm

Total: $31 mm

Considering injury and performance risks, I think 5/$30 mm is pretty risky, even though Gausman could turn out to be better than the 2012-14 Tillman over the next few years and the options may come in handy. So, I'd say that's a borderline call.

[Can_of_corn]

Probably Scott Erickson, who signed a 5-year deal in the offseason of 1998-1999.

Thanks.