Fangraphs: Noting Kevin Gausman (Extend Gausman now!)

[Il BuonO]

Let's assume, for sake of argument, that Gausman reaches the level Tillman was at in 2012-14 for the next few years. I'm guessing his comp on a year-to-year basis would look something like:

$3.5 mm (Tillman got $4.3 mm but he had more service time and had two 200-inning seasons under his belt)

$6.0 mm

$9.0 mm

$12.0 mm

$14.5 mm

Total: $45 mm.

Considering injury and performance risks, and possible upside beyond a Tillman-like performance, yes I'd do the 5/$30 mm with a couple of options.

Pretty good and as the writer notes there are advantages to not having the mileage on his arm so far.

[Frobby]

Pretty good and as the writer notes there are advantages to not having the mileage on his arm so far.

I had to edit my post -- forgot that the first year was not arb-eligible and that significantly alters the analysis. See my edited post.

[Il BuonO]

I had to edit my post -- forgot that the first year was not arb-eligible and that significantly alters the analysis. See my edited post.

Well, I like the first scenario better. That said, it doesn't line up perfectly. Here's the thing: the Orioles are or have operated as a team with payroll constraints. Better to lock up talent now for less money and possibly more risk than to wait for a breakout season and risk no chance of extending them.

It strikes me the latter risks alienating the fanbase as may happen with Machado.

[Frobby]

Well, I like the first scenario better. That said, it doesn't line up perfectly. Here's the thing: the Orioles are or have operated as a team with payroll constraints. Better to lock up talent now for less money and possibly more risk than to wait for a breakout season and risk no chance of extending them.

It strikes me the latter risks alienating the fanbase as may happen with Machado.

I don't disagree -- obviously, you need to pick your spots and the terms of the deal have to be pretty favorable. Seems to me that under the proposed deal, you win if Gausman stays healthy and turns out to be better than Tillman. If he's just about as good as Tillman, it's a push, or maybe a slight win. It he gets hurt or is worse than Tillman, then it's a loss. So, is that a gamble you are comfortable taking?

One could argue that this is the kind of risk the Orioles need to take if they want to be competitive at a mid-market payroll. On the plus side, Gausman has been nursed along and is at an age where it feels like he should have a lower risk of arm injury than some other guys. He's not a max effort guy and he has good size. On the negative side, we really haven't seen as much progress on his breaking ball as we'd like over the last three years. Overall, I'd be OK with this deal, but hardly doing backflips. And of course, who knows if Gausman would consider it?

[AdamK]

I think extending him now only sends the wrong message to people who HAVE to wear glasses. #endspecshamingnow #blindisbeautiful #cantseethiscontinue

[DrungoHazewood]

Let's assume, for sake of argument, that Gausman reaches the level Tillman was at in 2012-14 for the next few years. I'm guessing his comp on a year-to-year basis would look something like:

$500k

$3.5 mm (Tillman got $4.3 mm but he had more service time and had two 200-inning seasons under his belt)

$6.0 mm

$9.0 mm

$12.0 mm

Total: $31 mm

Considering injury and performance risks, I think 5/$30 mm is pretty risky, even though Gausman could turn out to be better than the 2012-14 Tillman over the next few years and the options may come in handy. So, I'd say that's a borderline call.

I think that's the kind of risk the Orioles need to take on. Chance of a 4, 5 or more win pitcher at $6M a year, with the downside being poor performance at 2015 Tommy Hunter rates.

[Il BuonO]

The O's don't really have a history of extending pitchers before they hit free agency. I think all the extend Machado/extend Britton/extend Gausman/extend Tillman stuff is kind of a pointless exercise. They'll either extend them when they're closer to free agency (and yeah that's frustrating) or they just won't.

That's right. It's frustrating because the Orioles are exactly the type of team which should consider these types of moves.

[Frobby]

The O's don't really have a history of extending pitchers before they hit free agency. I think all the extend Machado/extend Britton/extend Gausman/extend Tillman stuff is kind of a pointless exercise. They'll either extend them when they're closer to free agency (and yeah that's frustrating) or they just won't.

I don't put that much stock in "history." It has been a long time since the Orioles had a pitcher who would have been worthy of considering an early extension. I agree it's unlikely the O's would make such a move, but that doesn't make it any less fun to debate whether such a move would be wise.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't put that much stock in "history." It has been a long time since the Orioles had a pitcher who would have been worthy of considering an early extension. I agree it's unlikely the O's would make such a move, but that doesn't make it any less fun to debate whether such a move would be wise.

The Orioles are unlikely to win the World Series because they've lost two of their last three.

[backwardsk]

If I was Gausman I would not discount any FA years. He's already made $6M including signing bonus. He's a top pick that's proven that he can get MLB guys out. So if he were to get hurt he has made some money. There's just too much money in FA to pass up.

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[Can_of_corn]

If I was Gausman I would not discount any FA years. He's already made $6M including signing bonus. He's a top pick that's proven that he can get MLB guys out. So if he were to get hurt he has made some money. There's just too much money in FA to pass up.

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Money talks but if I'm Gausman I am going to be hesitant to extend in Baltimore. First off the long term projections don't look particularly rosy and I would be kinda upset about my usage.

[Crazysilver03]

That's right. It's frustrating because the Orioles are exactly the type of team which should consider these types of moves.

They should. If they had the talent that warranted it. For all the talk of extending Tillman and or Gonzo last year, half the board this year would have been about who to try to dump their contracts on. I know Gausman will cost more after this year but let's see him have decent consistent success in the majors.

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[backwardsk]

Money talks but if I'm Gausman I am going to be hesitant to extend in Baltimore. First off the long term projections don't look particularly rosy and I would be kinda upset about my usage.

In today's environment, I don't see why pitchers who are bonus babies would extend.

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[Can_of_corn]

In today's environment, I don't see why pitchers who are bonus babies would extend.

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I don't see why any above average player would extend. Unless it is for very close to market rates.

[backwardsk]

I don't see why any above average player would extend. Unless it is for very close to market rates.

I could see a lower round draft pick with a small bonus try to lock in a contract after a year or two of success to hedge against injury before they hit arbitration.

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