Davis Signs With Baltimore (7/$161M, incl $42M deferred)

[weams]

It suggests that he is compensating.

True, but the problem is that he is on a team that collectively has poor plate discipline. If Davis was on a team like the Royals or Cardinals then it wouldn't be as big of a deal. Pitchers don't have to throw strikes to the Orioles' 2-6 hitters to get them out and Machado has no business hitting leadoff.

I don't understand how the team can be so cheap for so long and then decide to break the bank on Davis. They gave significant raises to 3 of their own players but the team hasn't gotten any better and they still have the same exact holes as last year. They have 3 years before Machado leaves to play for NY, Boston or LA so as a fan it would be nice if they stopped screwing around.

Davis walks a lot and has good plate discipline.

[Can_of_corn]

Where did you get that data please?

Looks to me like the O's scored 47% of the time, in a fourth way tie for 25th place. Cubs were way back at 40%, which is probably why they only won 97 games.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-situational-batting.shtml

Now if they are trying to say that the O's scored the fewest total runs in that situation they might be right, but that's a pretty useless stat.

[PaulFolk]

Last season the Orioles were last in scoring with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs

14th, actually (they were ahead of Seattle). And that's because the Orioles had fewer plate appearances w/runner on third and less than two outs than any other team in the AL. The O's had 279 PAs in that situation, the Mariners had 293, and all other teams had 308 or more.

[Frobby]

Last season the Orioles were last in scoring with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs

First of all, that is wrong. Seattle was last, and we were second to last.

But second of all, you've misdiagnosed the main cause of that problem. The O's only had 279 opportunities with a runner on 3rd and less than two out, which was last in the league and 49 opportunities lower than league average. Our OPS in that situation was a healthy .832. We cashed the runner in 47% of the time, compared to league average of 50%, so over our 279 opportunities, we were about 8 runs below average. So the big problem was lack of opportunities, with poor performance in those opportunities being a much smaller factor.

Davis, by the way, scored a runner from 3B with less than two outs 17 out of 36 times, which is one below the league average in 36 chances. Of course, in 3 of those 36 times he hit a home run, so he got at least one extra run home.

At the end of the day, I'm more concerned with how many total runs we scored than I am with what the base/out situation was when we scored them.

(PS -- while I was looking this stuff up, Paul beat me to the punch with much of it.)

[TonySoprano]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/orioles?src=hash">#orioles</a> still hoping to announce Chris Davis signing later today.</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">January 21, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NationalHugDay?src=hash">#NationalHugDay</a> <a href="https://t.co/iQFdE2G5Rs">pic.twitter.com/iQFdE2G5Rs</a></p>— Sporting News MLB (@SN_Baseball) <a href="

">January 21, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Herman]

On the last point...

We would never resign jones.

There was no way wieters and Davis would be Orioles in 2015.

List goes on.

Maybe we should stop speaking with such certainty.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They actually did the right thing by locking Jones up early and they were able to do it for significantly less than he would have gotten on the open market. They offered Wieters a qualifying offer with the expectation and hope that he would decline it. That being said, does giving Wieters and Davis significant raises make the team better?

Davis walks a lot and has good plate discipline.

He made a ton of extra money by putting up great numbers in August and September (kind of like team ace Ubaldo Jimenez). Imagine how much better he would be in theory if he had Machado batting behind him and guys at the top of the lineup who did a better job getting on base. Instead, they brought in Mark Trumbo and Machado might be hitting leadoff again.

Looks to me like the O's scored 47% of the time, in a fourth way tie for 25th place. Cubs were way back at 40%, which is probably why they only won 97 games.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-situational-batting.shtml

Now if they are trying to say that the O's scored the fewest total runs in that situation they might be right, but that's a pretty useless stat.

The Cubs also had good pitching led by Jake Arrieta who was allowed to throw his cutter and won the CY Young

[Herman]

On the last point...

We would never resign jones.

There was no way wieters and Davis would be Orioles in 2015.

List goes on.

Maybe we should stop speaking with such certainty.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They actually did the right thing by locking Jones up early and they were able to do it for significantly less than he would have gotten on the open market. They offered Wieters a qualifying offer with the expectation and hope that he would decline it. That being said, does giving Wieters and Davis significant raises make the team better?

Davis walks a lot and has good plate discipline.

He made a ton of extra money by putting up great numbers in August and September (kind of like team ace Ubaldo Jimenez). Imagine how much better he would be in theory if he had Machado batting behind him and guys at the top of the lineup who did a better job getting on base. Instead, they brought in Mark Trumbo and Machado might be hitting leadoff again.

Looks to me like the O's scored 47% of the time, in a fourth way tie for 25th place. Cubs were way back at 40%, which is probably why they only won 97 games.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-situational-batting.shtml

Now if they are trying to say that the O's scored the fewest total runs in that situation they might be right, but that's a pretty useless stat.

The Cubs also had good pitching led by Jake Arrieta who was allowed to throw his cutter and won the CY Young

[Herman]

On the last point...

We would never resign jones.

There was no way wieters and Davis would be Orioles in 2015.

List goes on.

Maybe we should stop speaking with such certainty.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Davis walks a lot and has good plate discipline.

First of all, that is wrong. Seattle was last, and we were second to last.

But second of all, you've misdiagnosed the main cause of that problem. The O's only had 279 opportunities with a runner on 3rd and less than two out, which was last in the league and 49 opportunities lower than league average. Our OPS in that situation was a healthy .832. We cashed the runner in 47% of the time, compared to league average of 50%, so over our 279 opportunities, we were about 8 runs below average. So the big problem was lack of opportunities, with poor performance in those opportunities being a much smaller factor.

Davis, by the way, scored a runner from 3B with less than two outs 17 out of 36 times, which is one below the league average in 36 chances. Of course, in 3 of those 36 times he hit a home run, so he got at least one extra run home.

At the end of the day, I'm more concerned with how many total runs we scored than I am with what the base/out situation was when we scored them.

(PS -- while I was looking this stuff up, Paul beat me to the punch with much of it.)

So do you disagree that poor plate discipline is one of the problems on the team?

The reason I hate the runs scored stat (and a lot of stats in general) is because it is misleading. For example - the Orioles could go 5 games and score a total of 10 runs and then score 12 runs in the 6th game (situations like that happened with relative frequency last season). All of a sudden their total runs doesn't look concerning. Think about how often the Orioles offense was shut down by below average pitchers, emergency starters from the minors and even guys from the independent league.

[Can_of_corn]

So do you disagree that poor plate discipline is one of the problems on the team?

The reason I hate the runs scored stat (and a lot of stats in general) is because it is misleading. For example - the Orioles could go 5 games and score a total of 10 runs and then score 12 runs in the 6th game (situations like that happened with relative frequency last season). All of a sudden their total runs doesn't look concerning. Think about how often the Orioles offense was shut down by below average pitchers, emergency starters from the minors and even guys from the independent league.

Kazmir?

[Frobby]

. That being said, does giving Wieters and Davis significant raises make the team better?

No, but we didn't have the option of signing them for what they made last year. I think the better question is, was this the best use of our funds? With Wieters, there's a pretty broad consensus that his $15.8 mm could have been spent more productively elsewhere, given that we have Joseph. We took a calculated risk that he would reject the QO and garner us a draft pick, and we lost that bet. I still think that was a reasonable bet to make, and hopefully Wieters + Joseph > Clevenger + Joseph at the catcher position, though I frankly don't expect that combo to be 2 wins better. As to Davis, I have no problem at all with his $17 mm salary for 2016, it is down the road that I worry about. I'm still waiting to see what Cespedes winds up with to decide if I would have preferred that option.

As to the larger point that we are paying a lot without actually increasing the talent that was on last year's team, I think that is true. We have to hope that some of our players (especially the starting pitchers) have better years, and that we get some pleasant surprises from unexpected sources. Those things tend to happen for teams that make the playoffs.

[Dipper9]

To me Trumbo is a huge upgrade at DH, and I believe it won't take much for Kim and a Reimold/somebody platoon to put up better numbers than the rotating pile of nothing we had at the corner outfield spots last year. Throw in a full year of Wieters and Schoop and I think positionally we are better than 2015. Keep in mind 2015 we scored more runs than our ALCS year in 2014, and I think offensively we're solid.

I believe the bullpen will be better than last year, and it was already solid.

The one area of weakness is still the rotation, but we still have time to fix that to a degree.

[El Gordo]

2015 :

DH .684

LF .640

RF .767

Should be able to upgrade in LF and at DH RF maybe not.

[BohKnowsBmore]

No, but we didn't have the option of signing them for what they made last year. I think the better question is, was this the best use of our funds? With Wieters, there's a pretty broad consensus that his $15.8 mm could have been spent more productively elsewhere, given that we have Joseph. We took a calculated risk that he would reject the QO and garner us a draft pick, and we lost that bet. I still think that was a reasonable bet to make, and hopefully Wieters + Joseph > Clevenger + Joseph at the catcher position, though I frankly don't expect that combo to be 2 wins better. As to Davis, I have no problem at all with his $17 mm salary for 2016, it is down the road that I worry about. I'm still waiting to see what Cespedes winds up with to decide if I would have preferred that option.

As to the larger point that we are paying a lot without actually increasing the talent that was on last year's team, I think that is true. We have to hope that some of our players (especially the starting pitchers) have better years, and that we get some pleasant surprises from unexpected sources. Those things tend to happen for teams that make the playoffs.

I agree. The wieters QO was a calculated risk. It didn't work out in the same way many hoped, but I think Wieters at 1/16 is still better than losing him with no draft pick compensation. That's just me. But to say the decision was wrong just because the lower probability result (looking forward at the time) occurred is silly.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Herman]

No, but we didn't have the option of signing them for what they made last year. I think the better question is, was this the best use of our funds? With Wieters, there's a pretty broad consensus that his $15.8 mm could have been spent more productively elsewhere, given that we have Joseph. We took a calculated risk that he would reject the QO and garner us a draft pick, and we lost that bet. I still think that was a reasonable bet to make, and hopefully Wieters + Joseph > Clevenger + Joseph at the catcher position, though I frankly don't expect that combo to be 2 wins better. As to Davis, I have no problem at all with his $17 mm salary for 2016, it is down the road that I worry about. I'm still waiting to see what Cespedes winds up with to decide if I would have preferred that option.

As to the larger point that we are paying a lot without actually increasing the talent that was on last year's team, I think that is true. We have to hope that some of our players (especially the starting pitchers) have better years, and that we get some pleasant surprises from unexpected sources. Those things tend to happen for teams that make the playoffs.

To me Trumbo is a huge upgrade at DH, and I believe it won't take much for Kim and a Reimold/somebody platoon to put up better numbers than the rotating pile of nothing we had at the corner outfield spots last year. Throw in a full year of Wieters and Schoop and I think positionally we are better than 2015. Keep in mind 2015 we scored more runs than our ALCS year in 2014, and I think offensively we're solid.

I believe the bullpen will be better than last year, and it was already solid.

The one area of weakness is still the rotation, but we still have time to fix that to a degree.

Offensively they are not solid! It's one dimensional and pitchers know that they don't need to throw strikes! Like I said before, the total runs stat is misleading (a lot of stats are). I agree that Trumbo is an upgrade at DH but he is another high strikeout guy on a team with collectively poor plate discipline. I don't hate the move considering that they had a hole at DH, but the downside is that it compounds the poor plate discipline problem that the team already has. The Orioles do not have the starting pitching to keep the team afloat when the boom or bust offense goes through a stretch where they score something like 20 runs in 10 games (like they did with relative frequency last year).

I do agree with that Schoop should continue to get better. I am a big fan of Schoop and hopefully he stays healthy b/c he has a ton of upside. I just worry that Wieters will be batting higher in the order than he should because he is one of the few lefties on the team.

...and if Reimold is still on the roster that illustrates the problem

[Can_of_corn]

Offensively they are not solid! It's one dimensional and pitchers know that they don't need to throw strikes! Like I said before, the total runs stat is misleading (a lot of stats are). I agree that Trumbo is an upgrade at DH but he is another high strikeout guy on a team with collectively poor plate discipline. I don't hate the move considering that they had a hole at DH, but the downside is that it compounds the poor plate discipline problem that the team already has. The Orioles do not have the starting pitching to keep the team afloat when the boom or bust offense goes through a stretch where they score something like 20 runs in 10 games (like they did with relative frequency last year).

I do agree with that Schoop should continue to get better. I am a big fan of Schoop and hopefully he stays healthy b/c he has a ton of upside. I just worry that Wieters will be batting higher in the order than he should because he is one of the few lefties on the team.

...and if Reimold is still on the roster that illustrates the problem

Reimold is a flawed player but he does have pretty good plate discipline.