The start of the decline

[Sports Guy]

All I've said is that in these past two games I have seen things eerily similar to the past. Does anybody here want to refute the statement that the O's M.O. for the past few seasons has been to start off well, throw together a few lousy losses, and watch those losses snowball to the grand result of another disappointing season?

If not, then I do not see how anyone can get on my case for starting this thread.

I'm not and i am not even saying you are wrong about some of your points.

It is just hilarious...The way this board changes day to day amazes me.

Everyone here pretty much acknowledges that we are a 75-85 win team...Guys, here is a news flash for you...THAT IS AVERAGE!

When you are just average, you have your ups and downs.

Why is everyone so dramatic with these ups and downs?

[Mackus]

You should tell the last few Orioles' teams that (not counting 2005 of course).

What game in April changed the season for the Orioles? What game or games caused them to go from a team that was capable of winning 90+ games to an under-.500 team?

Just because the team starts hot doesn't mean its capable of sustaining it. You're confusing a collapse with a regression to the norm.

[MCL1021]

I meant benched as in have him on the bench for tomorrow night, I should have been more specific.

I've decided not to post anymore the rest of the night, because I realize I'm looking like a dumbass posting things because I'm pissed off.

I really need to not get so aggrivated over something so silly. Catch ya'll later.

[blueberryale77]

Roberts might still be feeling the lingering effects of the flu that sidelined him over the weekend?

Would love to see Mora benched for a couple days, but I don't think it will happen. Sam's philosophy seems to be "stay the course." It's also a little early for the riot act.

I agree. Had Roberts not homered and had three hits last night, I would have said Sam should have rested him for the day game after the night game vs a lefty considering the condition he was in on Sunday. Of course, Sam wouldn't have done that no matter what happened last night. But while I sympathize with Roberts if he's not feeling well, he should have told Perlozzo before the game if he was feeling too weak to make a throw to first base... although the Orioles' "iron man" culture probably does make it a little more difficult to do what's best for the team.

[Mackus]

I meant benched as in have him on the bench for tomorrow night, I should have been more specific.

I've decided not to post anymore the rest of the night, because I realize I'm looking like a dumbass posting things because I'm pissed off.

I really need to not get so aggrivated over something so silly. Catch ya'll later.

What Mora needs is what Millar got in the first game against the Yankees. A night off. After that day off, he came back smoking.

I don't trust Perlozzo to get Mora the rest he needs throughout the year though. I also think he'll play tomorrow because Perlozzo won't want to give the impression that he is benching Mora because of his recent mistakes.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Well that's not all you said, and actually, this isn't that eerily similiar to the past imo.

Yes, actually it is all I said. My first post said this:

"There have been times in the past where the O's have started off hot and then suddenly, you check the paper and they are 10 games below .500. You can't quite put your finger on where it went wrong.

Well this Oakland series will be it for this year. Two awful performances in back to back games. We played so well against Toronto and then mail it in against an Oakland team that isn't that good.

Just remember these two games come July 31 when we are wondering what players the O's are going to trade for the "future"."

What is the theme of that post? That the Orioles in years past have started off playing well and have eventually stumbled. I personally believe (and maybe you disagree) that the bad performances begin when we lost bad games which tend to snowball -- partially because this team has never had a real manager since Davey Johnson left.

My posts in this thread have been fairly consistent. Perhaps people think that I meant to say we shouldn't even bother playing the rest of the games, which is wrong. I happen to think we will finish below .500 AGAIN but that does not mean that the season is a throw-away, just that I don't think it will happen.

[Pedro Cerrano]

What game in April changed the season for the Orioles? What game or games caused them to go from a team that was capable of winning 90+ games to an under-.500 team?

Just because the team starts hot doesn't mean its capable of sustaining it. You're confusing a collapse with a regression to the norm.

You want 2006 for an example? After starting off the season with a very good 11-7 record (hmmm, wasn't that our record before these last two games?!) the O's go on to lose four straight to division rivals NYY and TOR from 4/19-4/22 getting outscored a pathetic 28-7 in those four games. Team was never the same after that. Four bad losses right around this time last year -- can't think of a better example than that.

[Leitch]

This statement is so unbelievably untrue. Do you really think this is true? Would you like me to dig up 15-20 examples of play-off teams losing like this over the past couple years? The Yanks blew a 4-5 run lead in the 9th just this past weekend.

I am just amazed by some of the things I read here after a couple losses where we didn't play well.

I guess a real glaring example would be last year's World Series

[Sports Guy]

You want 2006 for an example? After starting off the season with a very good 11-7 record (hmmm, wasn't that our record before these last two games?!) the O's go on to lose four straight to division rivals NYY and TOR from 4/19-4/22 getting outscored a pathetic 28-7 in those four games. Team was never the same after that. Four bad losses right around this time last year -- can't think of a better example than that.

But its not like we didn't recover because we lost those games...We didn't recover because we just weren't good.

[Sports Guy]

What will you say if the Orioles win 7 of the next 10 games? Won't it be hard to point to this as the turning point if they shake this off and play well the next couple weeks?

Forget 7 out of 10...What if we win both games vs Boston?

[Mackus]

You want 2006 for an example? After starting off the season with a very good 11-7 record (hmmm, wasn't that our record before these last two games?!) the O's go on to lose four straight to division rivals NYY and TOR from 4/19-4/22 getting outscored a pathetic 28-7 in those four games. Team was never the same after that. Four bad losses right around this time last year -- can't think of a better example than that.

So before those 4 losses they were a team that could reasonably have been expected to compete all season and win 90+ games? The team was so horribly shaken after losing 4 straight in April that they went from a legit contender to a sub-.500 also ran?

[Pedro Cerrano]

So before those 4 losses they were a team that could reasonably have been expected to compete all season and win 90+ games? The team was so horribly shaken after losing 4 straight in April that they went from a legit contender to a sub-.500 also ran?

Not too sure if the archives go back that far but I'm sure if you looked at the boards when we were 11-7 people were quite giddy. Probably the same people that have been giving me a hard time on this thread. And yes, I think those four games right there maybe didn't shut the door on the season entirely, but was the proverbial pebble that started the avalanche that I referenced a few posts back.

[mweb]

No, the way you phrased it on the first post was more dramatic and strong then what you have since said. To say with any certainty that these two games will lead to the demise of this team is quite the overreaction. It may lead to the demise, but lets not carried away.

[DoobyDoo]

Perlozzo should definitely let the team have it after the last two games, there's no doubt about that. We should have won this game 2-0. The A's didn't score a single legitimate run.

[Mackus]

Not too sure if the archives go back that far but I'm sure if you looked at the boards when we were 11-7 people were quite giddy. Probably the same people that have been giving me a hard time on this thread. And yes, I think those four games right there maybe didn't shut the door on the season entirely, but was the proverbial pebble that started the avalanche that I referenced a few posts back.

Again, you're confusing a collapse with a regression to the norm. Teams that are roughly .500 teams will have stretches where they play above .500, maybe even monthlong stretches. They'll also have opposite stretches where they play below .500 for weeks at a time. Teams don't just rotate wins and losses for the entire year, they ride hot and cold streaks that last for fairly significant amounts of time.