Fangraphs: Cameron thinks half a Billion for Harper may be too cheap

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/500-million-for-bryce-harper-might-still-be-a-bargain/

"I was talking to an executive this offseason," Paulsen said. "At one point in time they said you could be the first $400 million player. Do you ever think about your future and what's possible, in terms of you could break records for the money you make at one point in time?"

"Yeah, I mean I don't really think about that stuff. I just try to play the years out and do everything I can to help my team win," Harper said. "But don't sell me short. That's what you're doing right now to me, so don't do that."

The market value of a superstar slugger expected to consolidate roughly the same value into one roster spot should not be significantly lower than dividing the same money into two players who add up to the same total value.

In today's dollars, the market suggests that Harper?s performance is worth something like $50 million per year.

[MDtransplant757]

He's gonna get paid, but by who and how much will be the biggest questions coming up

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[Can_of_corn]

Haven't read the article yet but on the surface it makes sense. Figure 10/500M starting in 2019. Let us go with 10M a win average for 2019-2028 (which is low but makes the math easy). Harper will be 26-35 for that time frame.

It isn't unreasonable at all to expect him to average 5 wins a year if he's healthy.

I don't expect him to get that much, it is just too large a jump from current values, but I can see him easily being worth it.

[backwardsk]

I'd offer Manny $0.5B first.

I hope Harper stays in Washington. I don't want him in pinstripes.

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[Can_of_corn]

I'd offer Manny $0.5B first.

I hope Harper stays in Washington. I don't want him in pinstripes.

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Machado needs to put together a year with the glove like 2013 and a year with the bat like 2015. That will get him his 10 win season and open up the vault.

[backwardsk]

Machado needs to put together a year with the glove like 2013 and a year with the bat like 2015. That will get him his 10 win season and open up the vault.

Show him the money before he does that.

I know you're down on the offseason, but if DD locks him up, wouldn't you call this offseason a winner?

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[Can_of_corn]

Show him the money before he does that.

I know you're down on the offseason, but if DD locks him up, wouldn't you call this offseason a winner?

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Not for what my preferences are as a fan.

While I would love a Machado extension putting whip cream and a cherry on top of a manure sundae does not a tasty treat make.

[Frobby]

In 2000, a median payroll was about $60 mm, and that winter, ARod was signed to a 10/$252 mm contract. The median payroll by 2018 could be $150 mm (it's over $130 mm now, by the BB-ref method). So proportionately, a 10/$600 mm contact would be the equivalent of what ARod got. But I don't think you'll see anyone but the Yankees or Dodgers considering anything within $200 mm of that. And that's only if Harper proves he can stay healthy and put up numbers along the lines of last year's.

[Frobby]

Show him the money before he does that.

I know you're down on the offseason, but if DD locks him up, wouldn't you call this offseason a winner?

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Yes. It was my top priority of the offseason. At this point I'd be astounded if it happened.

[weams]

Federal baseball

"The Nats-owning Lerners, GM Mike Rizzo and Boras have an extremely close relationship," Heyman wrote today.

"And to this point they seem to work almost anything out; at one point Boras had as many as 10 players on the Nats."

But... Heyman added, and this is a fairly big but...

"Maybe the Nats have heard the whispers that the asking price may be $40 to $50 million a year, and perhaps for 15 years (that could make it as much as an astounding $750 million)."

Boras, in a phone interview with Heyman, "said he 'didn’t want to get into the pricing.'"

"Boras places Harper in a category with just a 'few players' who can attract players, and attract fans," Heyman wrote.

"Said Boras, 'The value of these players is exponential with the revenue of the game. There are only a few players where that algorithm works."