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The upside to our rotation


ChuckS

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Tillman, Gallardo, and Jimenez have all pitched like middle rotation starters for at least two out of the last three seasons. Gausman has even more upside and could possibly develop into a TOR starter this year.

We could be okay at four spots in the rotation. If they all pitch to their potential then we just need Wright/Wilson/Worley to not get blown up out there to have a pretty good rotation.

The downside. Tillman pitched like a # 5 last year. Jimenez pitched like a # 5 in 2014. Gallardo had some stuff come up in his physical and his fastball has been down several MPH in Spring Training......he could fall apart. Gausman has never pitched a full season in the bigs or shown that he can be more than a two pitch pitcher.

I think we need some good fortune this season. There are a lot of question marks, but some room for optimism.

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Everyone could have a career year. Now what is realistic. Gallardo has a bum shoulder and is throwing like a pitcher with a bum shoulder. Tillman had a bad year and has had a bad spring. Jimenez has had one good half with the Orioles and has been terrible the other 3/4 of the time he's been here. Expecting one solid year from him seems very dubious. Gausman has the most talent. He also has a tender shoulder for the 2nd year in a row. The 5th spot is between two unproven rookies who, even in a best case, will probably go through some painful growing pains. I think the starting pitching situation is worse than it was last year.

Last year we had Gausman as our 6th starter. Now we have Mike Wright as #5 and Tyler Wilson at #6.

The depth is definitely worse than 2015. But I think Tillman can reasonably be expected to have a better season. He had some pretty good months last season, he just needs to be more consistent and his stuff is still there. He was good in 2012, 2013, and 2014.

I think last season for Jimenez was about his mid-level performance. He was really bad in 2014, but really good in 2013. Last year was right in between. There is a lot of variation with him. He could pitch like a # 2 or a # 5.

Gausman needs to stay healthy and show some improvement. Neither are unreasonable expectations.

I am worried about Gallardo too. I am interested to see how he looks Friday. Hopefully that fastball gets into the low 90's.

I don't think everyone needs to have career years for us to have a passable rotation, but it will be an uphill climb.

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b64133517eca7b6094d65101ac504ce0.jpg

Our projected AAA staff...

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Looks like there are a couple of rotation spots to be filled. I would expect one of Wright or Wilson to be back there once Gausman comes off the DL. Gausman could also get a couple starts down there in April.

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