Analyzing Mike Wright

[Il BuonO]

Sure. You don't want to leave breaking pitches and change ups up high. No one complained about Ubaldo's first start. He threw several breaking pitches and changeups high in the zone and got away with it. Didn't bother anyone because the Twins didn't hit them.

The main difference between good pitchers and bad pitchers is consistency. I think Wright has good enough stuff to succeed.

I havent checked in much lately, otherwise I surely would have complained about Jimenez.

[JayThomas]

The main difference between good pitchers and bad pitchers is consistency. I think Wright has good enough stuff to succeed.

Sorry, missed this post. This I agree with. I think he has stuff too, and if he can get in the reps to learn to control it before blowing up and being sent back to AAA, then I also think he has the size and stamina to give us a lot of innings. He can be a big big piece of a championship team. I just meant that what I saw tonight was a total 2-inning Daniel Cabrera-esque meltdown in innings 4/5. We can't run him out there too many times if that's what we're going to get. Somehow, he has to get in the reps to overcome that.

[JayThomas]

First 12 starts at AA - 4.91 ERA

Last 26 starts at AA - 3.21 ERA

First 26 starts at AAA - 4.62 ERA

Last 14 starts at AAA - 2.22 ERA

First 9 starts in MLB - 6.48 ERA

Rest of MLB career - TBD

Excellent perspective. May he get the reps and come out successfully at MLB like at previous levels.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Wright has an excellent fastball and I love how he attacks the zone. He needs to refine his approach with two strikes though. He's leaving fastballs that are far too hittable over the plate with 2 strikes and that's gotta change.

[WEAVERMAN]

I'll cut him some slack on a cold night in Boston after a long layoff, but his breaking stuff was just not credible tonight. Better luck next time.

He needs to be on a short leash, in the rotation. He needs to get better soon.

[Sessh]

I disagree that those bouncers were sliders. They did not break like a slider, they broke like a change up. It was breaking away from lefties and towards righties which is the opposite of what a slider does. He kept trying

to throw that pitch over and over again. He threw a few good ones that broke right over the outside corner at the knees, but then he'd throw the next one in the ground. They were not sliders and like someone said, if

they were attempts at sliders, I could throw a better one. He obviously does not have a good feel for whatever kind of change up that was, but the break on the pitches in question were not consistent with a slider.

[joeyc]

He needs to learn another pitch or learn to command his curve ball and change up. He throws way too many fastballs. That ain't working over 9 innings in the major leagues.

[Frobby]

I'm going to disagree. He actually had a nice slider working for most of the night until the last inning or so when he kept on trying to over throw it. His slider was his number two pitch instead of the changeup for most of the game.

I didn't see the first couple of innings, and was focusing on what I saw in the 4th and 5th, when almost every breaking pitch he threw was a potential wild pitch. I'm glad to hear that his slider was sharp earlier. As I said, I'm inclined to cut Wright some slack on a cold night where it's hard to get a feel for the baseball.

[sportsfan8703]

Too much of a SSS last night vs one of the best lineups in the MLB. It was obvious he didn't wanna hang anything, so at least he missed low with his pitches. Who knows, maybe the gameplan was for him to go out there and pound the lower portion of the zone with fastballs, don't hang anything, and don't walk anyone. Keep us in the game. I was being tough on him when I was watching but then I realized he was facing a ton of lefties and a great lineup. Too early to tell if he's the "bad" Wright from last year. TEX and KC should be more tough tests for him.

[Sanfran327]

I always forget that Wright throws so hard. That's nice to have.

I don't put a lot of stock into last night's performance though. Papi owns him, and he drove in half of the runs. Also, it was so damn cold that I don't think he had a very good grip on the ball. If he's still pitching like this in May, I'll reassess my opinion. Until then, he pitched just well enough for us to win.

[TouchemAll]

If you are like me, you were pretty excited last season when Mike Wright threw 14 shutout innings in his first two starts as a major league pitcher.

But then he proceeded to give up 30 runs over his next 28.3 innings as the wheels came off for him.

At that point I sort of wrote off Wright as a replacement level starter, who'd just over performed in his first couple of games. I mean, in 2014 over a full season at Norfolk, he'd gone 5 - 11 with a pedestrian 4.62 ERA, 1.405 WHIP and 6.5 K/9.

Nothing to see here.....move along.

So I was sort of surprised during spring training this year when Buck gave him the most opportunities (he led or tied for the lead on the O's in games started and innings pitched this spring) to win a starting spot. Tyler Wilson and to a lesser extent Vance Worley both outpitched Wright this spring, but Buck apparently made up his mind early on that Wright was the next guy up for the O's.

It sure seemed like Buck and DD saw something in Wright that I was missing. So I went back to his minor league stats and took another look.

I posted in another thread what I found - Wright has been a sort of "Jekyll & Hyde" pitcher during his career thus far. The first time he gets an extended look at a particular level of competition, he struggles. But once he repeats that level, he pitches much better.

Here are Wrights aggregate stats at A / AA / AAA split by first time he faces a level and when he repeats that level of competition. I took some liberties and assumed for this purpose that Rk / A- / A and A+ were all similar to each other:

1st time, Age Dif -2.9, W-L 13 - 16, ERA 4.91, GS 46, IP 249.4, H 280, ER 136, HR 23, BB 68, K 190,

2nd time, Age Dif -1.8, W-L 25 - 06, ERA 2.90, GS 48, IP 270.3, H 258, ER 87, HR 16, BB 69, K 234,

1st time: BF 1084, WHIP 1.40, H9 10.1, HR9 0.8, BB9 2.5, K9 6.9, K/W 2.79

2nd time: BF 1126, WHIP 1.21, H9 8.6, HR9 0.5, BB9 2.3, K9 7.8, K/W 3.39

The sample sizes are almost identical - similar numbers of starts, IP and batters faced. There are slight improvements in BB/9 and K/9 the 2nd time around but these aren't significant enough by themselves to explain the difference in performance.

The real difference makers seems to be the reductions in H9 & HR9 that translates into him giving up over 2 runs less per nine innings.

But is Wright really doing something different that affects the number of hits and home runs he's giving up or is it just coincidental that he improves these metrics the 2nd time around?

I found this excellent article "Can pitchers prevent hits on balls in play" on Diamond-Mind.com.

The author uses a metric called NetIPAvg (net in play average) to clearly illustrate that most above average pitchers have a measurable ability to reduce the number of hits they give up on balls in play. It's a fascinating exploration of how different styles of pitchers (Power Pitchers, Control Freaks, Crafty Lefties, Knucklballers, etc.) can be successful by far exceeding league average in various metrics including K rate, BB rate, NetIPAvg and HR rate.

The part of the article to me that is relevant to my analysis of Mike Wright is the section on "Year to year variations, Part 1". It shows that pitchers - in this case Greg Maddux (control freak), Jamie Moyer (crafty lefty) and Randy Johnson (power pitcher), each started off their major league career by being below average in preventing hits on balls in play, but were able to consistently out perform the league average for NetIPAvg for long periods later in their career.

Apparently, after a sufficient period (usually a year or two) of time getting acclimated to the majors, each of these pitchers were able to learn something that helped them to consistently do a better job of preventing hits on balls in play.

I'm not suggesting that Mike Wright is the next Maddux, Moyer or Johnson. In fact, Wright is neither a control freak, a crafty lefty or a power pitcher. But I am intrigued with the possibility that Mike Wright might be one of those guys that has whatever "it" is that lets great pitchers learn how to minimize hits on balls in play.

His minor league career shows some indication that this might be the case. Let's hope his second go round in the Majors follows a similar pattern!

Good stuff:

Till he proves to me other wise, and I sure HOPE HE DOES, he's the next Tommy Hunter. Nice STRAIGHT fast ball and questionable control of his secondary pitches sums him up real good. JMHO I like Wilson better.

[Frobby]

4/19

Pretty decent outing by Wright IMO. His command was shaky early but his stuff was pretty good throughout. Something to build on.

[Rene88]

4/19

Pretty decent outing by Wright IMO. His command was shaky early but his stuff was pretty good throughout. Something to build on.

A few breaks here or there and that game is 6-0 Blue Jays early. His stuff is great and all, but reminds of watching Jake pitch early.

[MDtransplant757]

4/19

Pretty decent outing by Wright IMO. His command was shaky early but his stuff was pretty good throughout. Something to build on.

We're going to see growing pains from him. He'll be good, just give him time.

[LordBaltimore]

Six innings pitched allowing three earned runs for this staff is phenomenal.