Roch: Matusz Traded (along with draft pick)

[24fps]

Two points I would like to make:

DJ Stewart is on his way to being an epic fail, but the draft is not "an expensive crapshoot". It is, simply, a very cheap way to acquire major league talent. Pointing at individual picks that are busts truly fails to see the forest through the trees. Even Nolan Reimold and his 3.3 WAR to date in his career against his salary provides production to offset the cost of his entire class.

Second, I understand that the pic has value and that DD is grabbing that value now instead of letting that egg hatch and develop. Folks point repeatedly to the end product, however, of which 76th picks end up producing WAR at the major league level. That misses the very real possibility that the prospect taken with that pick had MORE value at any other point in time. Let's take Josh Hader for example - taken in the 19th round. At that time, that pick was not sellable, but if it were, it certainly would return a nominal amount - probably less than $5,000. Josh Hader developed nicely originally and made up a portion (along with a draft pick and LJ Hoes) of a trade for Bud Norris. Bud Norris provided about .6 WAR for the Os over 2+ years at a cost of about $15M. This year, Josh Hader is a top 60 prospect on mlb.com entering the season. Today's Hader by himself could probably have netted the 2013 Bud Norris. My point - even if Josh Hader NEVER makes to the bigs and joins a long line of 19th round picks who did not produce any WAR - is that Hader today has significantly more value than the original pick and more value than what he had in 2013. Reviewing simply the WAR created by those taken at a particular draft pick does not provide a full glimpse of the value of that pick. DD is selling the 76th pick at a point in time. Like Josh Hader, it is possible the pick has significantly more value in two years than today even if the player taken with that pick does not make it to the major leagues.

Every asset has current value and potential future value. When you choose to capture that value necessarily involves the risk that you don't maximize it fully. Unless you have the benefit of hindsight or a reliable crystal ball that is simply a fact of life. The fullness of time is not a tool in DD's toolbox.

[hoosiers]

Every asset has current value and potential future value. When you choose to capture that value necessarily involves the risk that you don't maximize it fully. Unless you have the benefit of hindsight or a reliable crystal ball that is simply a fact of life. The fullness of time is not a tool in DD's toolbox.

This is a fool's prophecy. If you maximize the value of every pick you have by selling it, you will not have a farm system. Period. The future competitiveness of a team is based largely on the status of the farm system. If one believes relatively high draft pick should be moved to eliminate poor FO decisions regarding the third, fourth or fifth reliever on a team, one is really selling those picks and the future competitiveness of the team short.

Further, the run of the current team has been built almost entirely on the backs of pre-FA, strong prospects that have kept payroll manageable - Gausman, Machado, Britton, Tillman, a cheap Gonzo, a cheap Chen, Schoop, Davis, Wieters, etc. Imagine life without them. Well, we will know that life soon enough. DD has bankrupted the farm system into one of the five worst in baseball and the pipeline of potential quality 2-3 WAR pre-arb producers in the organization is low - especially when compared to the rest of baseball. The team has competed by taking full advantage of the resources DD is now selling for cash - totally eliminating the upside the pick. You never know which pick turns into Machado or Britton and that's why you gather all the picks that are possible.

[Sessh]

Further, the run of the current team has been built almost entirely on the backs of pre-FA, strong prospects that have kept payroll manageable - Gausman, Machado, Britton, Tillman, a cheap Gonzo, a cheap Chen, Schoop, Davis, Wieters, etc. Imagine life without them. Well, we will know that life soon enough.

Unless, of course, some pieces are traded such as Machado, Jones and Britton. I know everyone wants to resign Machado, but the Orioles may be more like the Rangers with A-Rod at that rate. Manny is a great player,

but he's only one man. We need a whole team/organization full of talented players who will give this team a chance to compete for a World Championship for many years to come and I don't think we can do that with a

barren farm system. Of course, I don't think the FO has the guts to make such hard decisions, but it's either that or just say F the future and go back to being perennial losers for awhile. I really don't want that again.

Interesting discussion here BTW though I haven't read through the whole thread.

[24fps]

This is a fool's prophecy. If you maximize the value of every pick you have by selling it, you will not have a farm system. Period. The future competitiveness of a team is based largely on the status of the farm system. If one believes relatively high draft pick should be moved to eliminate poor FO decisions regarding the third, fourth or fifth reliever on a team, one is really selling those picks and the future competitiveness of the team short.

Further, the run of the current team has been built almost entirely on the backs of pre-FA, strong prospects that have kept payroll manageable - Gausman, Machado, Britton, Tillman, a cheap Gonzo, a cheap Chen, Schoop, Davis, Wieters, etc. Imagine life without them. Well, we will know that life soon enough. DD has bankrupted the farm system into one of the five worst in baseball and the pipeline of potential quality 2-3 WAR pre-arb producers in the organization is low - especially when compared to the rest of baseball. The team has competed by taking full advantage of the resources DD is now selling for cash - totally eliminating the upside the pick. You never know which pick turns into Machado or Britton and that's why you gather all the picks that are possible.

Who in this thread, or for that matter the history of this website, ever advocated selling every pick?

[Tony-OH]

This is a fool's prophecy. If you maximize the value of every pick you have by selling it, you will not have a farm system. Period. The future competitiveness of a team is based largely on the status of the farm system. If one believes relatively high draft pick should be moved to eliminate poor FO decisions regarding the third, fourth or fifth reliever on a team, one is really selling those picks and the future competitiveness of the team short.

Further, the run of the current team has been built almost entirely on the backs of pre-FA, strong prospects that have kept payroll manageable - Gausman, Machado, Britton, Tillman, a cheap Gonzo, a cheap Chen, Schoop, Davis, Wieters, etc. Imagine life without them. Well, we will know that life soon enough. DD has bankrupted the farm system into one of the five worst in baseball and the pipeline of potential quality 2-3 WAR pre-arb producers in the organization is low - especially when compared to the rest of baseball. The team has competed by taking full advantage of the resources DD is now selling for cash - totally eliminating the upside the pick. You never know which pick turns into Machado or Britton and that's why you gather all the picks that are possible.

Every point you make actually makes our point. The fact that "any pick you make" could turn into the next Machado or Britton is exactly why it's just a crap shoot. It's not like DD is trading away his entire draft. If he can get value for the 76th pick and still have his other 3rd round pick, how do you know he won't hit another Britton with that pick? BTW, what minor leaguers are tearing it up at the major league level right now that he traded away? I'm saying I agreed with all of his trades (I obviously hated the Davies trade), but again, minor leaguers are assets to be used to improve the organization. The draft is one way to improve an organziation, but DD is doing a nice job of augmenting that process with others. You don't need to keep all of your picks to be successful. Sure, the more picks the better, but the 76th pick netted him 3 million dollars in salary relief that can be used, and netted him a potential back end cheap rotation piece. That's pretty good value for the a pick that has about 5% chance of historically becoming an impact player.

[Tony-OH]

Unless, of course, some pieces are traded such as Machado, Jones and Britton. I know everyone wants to resign Machado, but the Orioles may be more like the Rangers with A-Rod at that rate. Manny is a great player,

but he's only one man. We need a whole team/organization full of talented players who will give this team a chance to compete for a World Championship for many years to come and I don't think we can do that with a

barren farm system. Of course, I don't think the FO has the guts to make such hard decisions, but it's either that or just say F the future and go back to being perennial losers for awhile. I really don't want that again.

Interesting discussion here BTW though I haven't read through the whole thread.

I think Manny transcends that thought process. He has a chance to become the best All-time Oriole. What value does that have for the organization? Manny will be the face of this franchise and has more talent than anyone who has come through the Orioles system ever. Yes, more than Ripken, more than Murray, more than one of my childhood heroes Brooks Robinson.

In my mind, you build you team around Manny Machado and you realize the long term marketing alone will pay off.

[Sessh]

I think Manny transcends that thought process. He has a chance to become the best All-time Oriole. What value does that have for the organization? Manny will be the face of this franchise and has more talent than anyone who has come through the Orioles system ever. Yes, more than Ripken, more than Murray, more than one of my childhood heroes Brooks Robinson.

In my mind, you build you team around Manny Machado and you realize the long term marketing alone will pay off.

He is still only one man. The others you mentioned were all part of great teams that had many great players. If it was just them, that team would go nowhere. Long term marketing doesn't win championships and neither

does a $300M contract on the books to go along with Davis. That's a lot of money sunk into two players which doesn't leave much for the rest of the team and no farm system. That is not a good team I don't care how

good Manny is. He, like any great player, needs a good team around him and by the looks of things down the line, he won't have that if we sign him to a monster contract. I don't doubt how good Manny is, but we will

just disagree on how to proceed with him and the others.

[Sessh]

He is still only one man. The others you mentioned were all part of great teams that had many great players. If it was just them, that team would go nowhere. Long term marketing doesn't win championships and neither

does a $300M contract on the books to go along with Davis. That's a lot of money sunk into two players which doesn't leave much for the rest of the team and no farm system. That is not a good team I don't care how

good Manny is. He, like any great player, needs a good team around him and by the looks of things down the line, he won't have that if we sign him to a monster contract. I don't doubt how good Manny is, but we will

just disagree on how to proceed with him and the others.

Referring of course to the Championship team in '83. Ripken and Murray were both on some pretty bad Orioles teams as well.

[Sessh]

Nice post so I would guess you see no alternative except to deal Machado?

At this time, no. What other way is there to breathe some life into our farm system fast enough that the team doesn't have to go through another 5+ years of losing to recover? Trading our biggest stars would accomplish

that very quickly. We would get quite a haul of very good young talent for the three I mentioned though Jones isn't helping his value much at the moment. Considering the state of our farm system, if you can turn one very

good player into several very good young players that are a bit less proven, I think you do that as many times as you can. Machado alone would probably require a multi-team trade and would net the Orioles several top

prospects. Britton would also bring in some nice pieces and with Jones, I guess it depends how bad someone wanted him and how he finishes the year offensively. I think the returns we would get from dealing them would

help us to get over their losses quickly.

One thing seems inescapable to me at this point. From a long term POV, Machado helps the team more by bringing in the wealth of prospects he would command in a trade than he ever could if he stayed here. We wouldn't

have to pay $300M or whatever he's going to get for those guys, either. If we let these guys walk for picks, we're screwed.

[24fps]

Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter will do everything in their power to field a championship major league team every year in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Everything. The best off season to make adjustments ended two months ago. History might tell us it was a missed opportunity, but nonetheless we're all in folks. Personally, I'm going to enjoy the ride.

[hoosiers]

Who in this thread, or for that matter the history of this website, ever advocated selling every pick?

I understand the sarcasm in this response, but I would like to note that DD has forfeited two of four first rounders, one of four second round picks (and was prepared to forfeit a second second rounder for Fowler) and three competitive balance picks (plus international slots).

So DD has moved/forfeited about 50% of his top picks and 100% of the pics he could sell (maybe 75% since I can't remember how we picked up the Josh Hart pick).

So, no, not quite 100%, but DD has made strong efforts to forfeit/sell the top draft picks he's had - to supplement the then current teams at the expense of our future.

[Can_of_corn]

I understand the sarcasm in this response, but I would like to note that DD has forfeited two of four first rounders, one of four second round picks (and was prepared to forfeit a second second rounder for Fowler) and three competitive balance picks (plus international slots).

So DD has moved/forfeited about 50% of his top picks and 100% of the pics he could sell (maybe 75% since I can't remember how we picked up the Josh Hart pick).

So, no, not quite 100%, but DD has made strong efforts to forfeit/sell the top draft picks he's had - to supplement the then current teams at the expense of our future.

I include Davis in that. I don't think anyone believes that Davis would not have eventually netted the O's a pick if they hadn't resigned him.

[24fps]

I understand the sarcasm in this response, but I would like to note that DD has forfeited two of four first rounders, one of four second round picks (and was prepared to forfeit a second second rounder for Fowler) and three competitive balance picks (plus international slots).

So DD has moved/forfeited about 50% of his top picks and 100% of the pics he could sell (maybe 75% since I can't remember how we picked up the Josh Hart pick).

So, no, not quite 100%, but DD has made strong efforts to forfeit/sell the top draft picks he's had - to supplement the then current teams at the expense of our future.

There was no sarcasm intended, only a response to one of several straw men you've used in responding to my prior posts.

No one thinks draft picks are worthless. It's just that they can be used in many ways besides sitting back and watching them grow as if building and maintaining a baseball franchise was some strange agricultural process. That's the point many of us are trying to make. Criticizing how DD's uses the resources he has is certainly fair game. A lot of us aren't quite as concerned as you seem to be though.

[OFFNY]

o

Belicek's debut for the Advanced-A Keys.

He ceded a 2-out, 2-run home run in the 3rd inning before getting the final out of the frame, and then departed.

9 OUTS: 2 Strikeouts, 1 Groundout (Including 1 Double Play), 2 Flyouts, 2 Popouts (Including 1 Double Play)

TREVOR WALKER BELICEK O (vs. Advanced-A Winston-Salem, 5/26)

IP:l 3

H:;; 5 l(1 Home Run, 4 Singles)

R:l) 2

BB: 0

SO: 2

Pitches: 41 (23 Strikes, 18 Balls)

2016 ERA: 6.00 l(Advanced-A Frederick)

PITCHES BY INNING

****************

21 (10 Strikes, 11 Balls)

81 (51 Strikes, 31 Balls)

12 (81 Strikes, 41 Balls)

[weams]

Who in this thread, or for that matter the history of this website, ever advocated selling every pick?

The only picks that can be sold are the competitive balance pick. Which in this case was before the third round.