For the first time this season, the Orioles are now favored to win the AL East

[O's84]

I think Dylan Bundy could be that substantial upgrade in their rotation.

He's thrown 33 innings 75 games through the season. If the innings limit is 75 (give or take) he has 39 innings left between now and then.

I don't think they make him start (yet) until possibly post-ASG. There are 12 games until the ASB, assuming he'll pitch once every 4-5 days, he probably will log another 6-8 innings.

So, 40 innings through 87 games. Will leave 75 games and 35 innings. Let's say they do a 5 IP/start scenario. That means he can make 7 starts. And he'll effectively be shutdown.

My gut is they don't even do that. They'll go with 3-4 IP from now until maybe the last month of the season and then try to throw him a few starts. Regardless, if the O's are fortunate enough to make the playoffs, Bundy won't be on it because of an innings limit. :shrug:

Unless you meant next year. And to that end, you *might* be right. But he'll still be limited to probably 130 IP at most. And that's assuming everything went well, he's healthy...and hopefully has his cutter back.

He does mean next year. He was responding to Roy saying the window might be closing next year and was countering that a healthy Bundy in the rotation would be a huge shot in the arm.

[crissfan172]

I love numbers and statistics. Hell...I minored in it.

But absolutely no part of me cares what our percent chance of winning the division is.

[Jagwar]

I love numbers and statistics. Hell...I minored in it.

But absolutely no part of me cares what our percent chance of winning the division is.

[Aristotelian]

Baseball Prospectus has us a tick behind the Sox to win the division (38.0% to 36.6%). Odds of making the playoffs sitting at 62.8%. Getting close to "print the tickets" territory.

[TradeAngelos]

.500 rest of way gets us 89 wins.

That is probably worst case scenario IMO.

[Orange]

Baseball Prospectus has us a tick behind the Sox to win the division (38.0% to 36.6%). Odds of making the playoffs sitting at 62.8%. Getting close to "print the tickets" territory.

We've got a 4.5 game lead and not projected to win the division? Where do I place my bet?

[Frobby]

We've got a 4.5 game lead and not projected to win the division? Where do I place my bet?

BP's mean projection is that we are a sub-.500 team from here, that will end up 87-75. I think that's possible, but not very likely. Remember that BP's projections are based on PECOTA, which had us winning 72 games this year.

[TradeAngelos]

Red Sox 4.5 games back of Orioles? They are 12-1 to win World Series. Orioles are 14-1.

Nationals worse record by 2 games, same division lead...in same league as prohibitive favorite to win it all (Cubs 3-1)...9-1 odds.

The long storied tradition of the Indians and how they are in it every year puts them at 10-1. Despite same record.

The LA Dodgers.....all of 6 games above .500 and again with that road through the Cubs to win it....same odds as O's 14-1

The Mets!! The amazing Mets....sitting 4 BACK in the division at an impressive 4 games over .500....14-1 just like the home team!

I LOVE IT!!!

[survivedc]

I LOVE IT!!!

Not much better than knowing you're good and thumbing your nose at everyone else that thinks you aren't.

[Redskins Rick]

Does the wizard behind the curtain project us winning going away? Frankly the starting pitching scares the hell out of me.

As long as they keep bashing away. Who needs SP?

[Moose Milligan]

It's going to be great to extend a big middle finger (or two) to the predictors from earlier this season.

Hey, I thought this team was gonna suck, too. But they're playing really well and it seems like despite half a season of winning baseball and trending upwards, no one is taking them seriously.

[Frobby]

BP has finally seen the light after the O's gained another game on Boston yesterday. They now put our odds of winning the AL East at 39.5%, compared to 31.9% for Boston and 24.9% for Toronto. Our overall playoff odds are at 64.6%.

They still have us expected to play .486 ball from here on out.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[Ruzious]

They cant do it without a substantial upgrade in their rotation.The window is closing too. Likely no Wieters/ and or Trumbo next year.

Remember the pitching staff that KC won it all with last year. Endy Volquez was their innings eater, and he's nowhere near an ace. Ventura was their young trouble-making future ace - but still a long way from being there. Guthrie was their 3rd starter, and he's now out of MLB. Chris Young was good - but only about 130 innings. And Johnny Cueto was awful as the 4th starter.

[Filmstudy]

As of this writing, the crosssection of online books on Oddschecker:

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner

shows the AL East as the most difficult race to handicap, with the best prices for each team at:

Orioles: 1.8-1

Blue Jays: 2-1

Red Sox: 2.05-1

Yankees: 20-1

Tampa Bay: 500-1

I think it's almost certainly happened at some point during a season, but I think it's unlikely any other divisional race has had 3 competitors this closely priced at the break since divisional play began in 1969.

[spiritof66]

As of this writing, the crosssection of online books on Oddschecker:

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner

shows the AL East as the most difficult race to handicap, with the best prices for each team at:

Orioles: 1.8-1

Blue Jays: 2-1

Red Sox: 2.05-1

Yankees: 20-1

Tampa Bay: 500-1

I think it's almost certainly happened at some point during a season, but I think it's unlikely any other divisional race has had 3 competitors this closely priced at the break since divisional play began in 1969.

I'm surprised the BJ's aren't the favorites at the break.