If This Is It-2017 Offseason

[Bahama O's Fan]

Yes we need another SP to upgrade either the Miley or Gallardo spot.

I'm going to let the two of them battle for number five and get rid of Ubaldo. Whether I can get a bag of balls for him and a straight release. Here would be my rotation:

Tillman

Bundy

FA

Gasman

Miley/Gallardo

I think would target Saunders for RF

[LookitsPuck]

Why is there rebuild talk? "We won't resign our guys?" That's the only argument to be made why we would have to rebuild. That's some sad, beta fan thinking.

Look at our under 30 talent:

Tillman 28

Bundy 23

Gausman 25

Britton 28

Brach 30

Givens 26

Davis 30

Schoop 24

Machado 23

Jones 30

Kim 28

Rickard 25

We have one of the youngest, most talented, rosters in the league. Rebuild this offseason? Put down the prospect rankings. Stop gushing over the narrative that Brian Cashman, and espn, sold you on at the trade deadline, and enjoy the winning.

Just goes to show that a suprisingly low percentage of people on here were fans of the team 1998-2012.

The 2017 Orioles (not counting arbitration eligible players) have contracts that put the *starting* payroll at nearly $100m. Now, some of that is deferred (Davis, O'Day).

But of that near $100m contracted payroll, the 3 worst starting pitchers on the staff are making ~34% of it. And that's Gallardo, Miley and Ubaldo.

So, the problem here is that with that much money tied up in those 3....and with Tillman, Bundy and Gausman also in competition for SP spots....the O's won't go out and get any expensive starters.

Payroll this year is around $155m (give or take).

Now, Wieters will be off the books. Pedro will be. As will Trumbo. So there's $30m wiggle room. But contracts are also going to be increasing (see: Tillman, Britton, Machado, etc.).

[Aristotelian]

I'm going to let the two of them battle for number five and get rid of Ubaldo. Whether I can get a bag of balls for him and a straight release. Here would be my rotation:

Tillman

Bundy

FA

Gasman

Miley/Gallardo

I think would target Saunders for RF

So you are going to eat salary on both Ubaldo and one of Miley and Gallardo? Good luck with that. Unfortunately I think our rotation is set with the group we have, plus Ubaldo will still be on the roster at least through spring training.

[Bahama O's Fan]

So you are going to eat salary on both Ubaldo and one of Miley and Gallardo? Good luck with that. Unfortunately I think our rotation is set with the group we have, plus Ubaldo will still be on the roster at least through spring training.

Whoever doesn't win the starting job is my long man

[DrungoHazewood]

What is the -6 number? Not WAR. BRef has him at -1.3 dWAR. Fangraphs gives -12.3 Def runs saved. So if I understand the positional adjustment numbers, that means his defense has been about twice as bad as the positional adjustment for his offense in RF.

The -12.3 is (defense + position). Position is -8, fielding is -4. If you zero out his fielding but give him a full 119 games of (17.5 per 162) DH penalty his positional adjustment is -13. So unless I'm missing something he's pretty much even as a DH or his real DH/RF combo.

Remember dWAR is (defense + position). oWAR is (offense + position). You can't add them up, it would double count positional adjustment. I really don't like the component WAR stuff because it leads to confusion. WAR has no meaning outside of total value of a player in context of his defensive responsibility.

[crowmst3k!]

Trade Manny, get haul.

[scOtt]

We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

[El Gordo]

The -12.3 is (defense + position). Position is -8, fielding is -4. If you zero out his fielding but give him a full 119 games of (17.5 per 162) DH penalty his positional adjustment is -13. So unless I'm missing something he's pretty much even as a DH or his real DH/RF combo.

Remember dWAR is (defense + position). oWAR is (offense + position). You can't add them up, it would double count positional adjustment. I really don't like the component WAR stuff because it leads to confusion. WAR has no meaning outside of total value of a player in context of his defensive responsibility.

I have always had a problem with the positional adjustment at DH. In RF Trumob gives up runs. As a DH he only creates them.

[jgjbanker]

If we could get a package close to what Chapman brought the Sox, would you trade just Britton?

[FlipTheBird]

If we could get a package close to what Chapman brought the Sox, would you trade just Britton?

In a heartbeat, but I don't know that it'll be considered. The Orioles don't have the assets to invest crazy money in a closer, and Zach's value will be at its all-time greatest this offseason.

[Can_of_corn]

If we could get a package close to what Chapman brought the Sox, would you trade just Britton?

I'm guessing you mean Yanks.

I'd rather have the Miller package.

And yes I would.

[Sessh]

Why is there rebuild talk? "We won't resign our guys?" That's the only argument to be made why we would have to rebuild. That's some sad, beta fan thinking.

Look at our under 30 talent:

Tillman 28

Bundy 23

Gausman 25

Britton 28

Brach 30

Givens 26

Davis 30

Schoop 24

Machado 23

Jones 30

Kim 28

Rickard 25

We have one of the youngest, most talented, rosters in the league. Rebuild this offseason? Put down the prospect rankings. Stop gushing over the narrative that Brian Cashman, and espn, sold you on at the trade deadline, and enjoy the winning.

Just goes to show that a suprisingly low percentage of people on here were fans of the team 1998-2012.

Yeah? So, what if a few of those guys get injured? Who replaces them? Minor leaguers with no future in the majors? The Orioles have NO FARM and if anything happens to even a couple of those players, the Orioles are

hit hard enough to knock them down significantly because there is nothing behind them. It is precisely because I was a fan during the down years and even doing write ups during those years that I see another stretch

like that right over the horizon if we don't do something to address this now before it gets to that point. Dealing only three of those players is enough to fix the Orioles system and set the organization up for success

for the next ten years. Not only that, but also achieve a decade's worth of draft building in one offseason and this chance will not likely be an option in 2018.

Even the youngest rosters get hit with injuries and then need to rely on the farm system to keep the team afloat while they recover. The Orioles have no such support system and it's amazing to me that you think that's

just fine and dandy. We signed Chris Dickerson because our system is garbage. We have to rely on the likes of Jimenez and Wilson in relief because our system is garbage. Mark Trumbo and Chris Tillman are the reasons

this club is in contention right now. Take either one or both out and the Orioles aren't in possession of a WC spot right now. Trumbo won't be here next year and even if he is, what are the chances he repeats this

contract year performance? Who replaces his production? We have no one. If Tillman gets injured, who replaces him? We don't even have a #5 starter in our system to replace him, so do explain to me how all this is

alright? You aren't looking at the bigger picture because if you were, you would see another 1998-2011 stretch only a few years away unless something is done NOW while the Orioles have a chance to immediately fix it

through trading their most valuable assets. The Orioles would get a TON of talent back for those guys that would surely be more than enough to give the organization hope for the future instead of more losing which is

what you're advocating.

You want to wait until it's obvious to a blind man that the team needs to rebuild and it'll be too late to do anything to avoid being basement dwellers for another 10 years. Keep hypnotizing yourself with that roster and

imagining no one can get injured because they're so young and we won't need the farm, but don't be surprised when this team ends up back in the cellar, but hey, at least we'll have Manny while we're down there. That

makes it ok, right? You're completely missing the bigger picture here. Completely.

[Can_of_corn]

Why is there rebuild talk? "We won't resign our guys?" That's the only argument to be made why we would have to rebuild. That's some sad, beta fan thinking.

Look at our under 30 talent:

Tillman 28

Bundy 23

Gausman 25

Britton 28

Brach 30

Givens 26

Davis 30

Schoop 24

Machado 23

Jones 30

Kim 28

Rickard 25

We have one of the youngest, most talented, rosters in the league. Rebuild this offseason? Put down the prospect rankings. Stop gushing over the narrative that Brian Cashman, and espn, sold you on at the trade deadline, and enjoy the winning.

Just goes to show that a suprisingly low percentage of people on here were fans of the team 1998-2012.

OK, I have to say it.

If you make a list of players under the age of 30 you don't want to include the ones that are, you know, not under 30.

[Can_of_corn]

I can't imagine the Orioles starting next year with this same rotation. That would be a disaster. Something has to give this offseason, especially if this downward trend continues to the end.

Do you think they will be able to trade away Ubaldo, Gallardo or Miley even as a salary dump?

They might be able to trade for another team's bad contract.

But right now all signs point to Tillman/Gausman/Bundy and two of the three listed above.

[Can_of_corn]

If I'm sitting in the GMs chair this offseason, I'm looking to move two of those contracts. If you start next season with those five, your in trouble and the fan base will know it.

But how?