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Pitching Decision Tonight?

Bahama O's Fan

By Bahama O's Fan
in Orioles Talk

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LA2 Hangout Grand Counsel

LA2

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I think Buck was wary of the fact that Ubaldo hadn't started a game in a month, and wanted to be sure he left the game with a good taste in his mouth.

I could understand if the top of the lineup was coming up, but it was the bottom 3, including a near-given out in Scherzer. The taste would have been better!--and they would have needed to use Ondrusek for only one inning.

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Moshagge3 Hangout Grand Counsel

Moshagge3

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If you run the Win Expectancy numbers, pitching a clean eighth inning would have only increased the Orioles' chance by a little more than 2%. So it's not as huge a mistake as I initially thought. But seriously, Ondrusek never should have been on this roster.

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

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If you run the Win Expectancy numbers, pitching a clean eighth inning would have only increased the Orioles' chance by a little more than 2%. So it's not as huge a mistake as I initially thought. But seriously, Ondrusek never should have been on this roster.

Increased it 2% over what?

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Rene88 Hangout Grand Counsel

Rene88

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Based on how he looked in the 7th, I knew it was a mistake to bring him out for the 8th. Everything he threw was belt high or higher. I guess Buck didn't want to use Brach in a game they were losing, even by one run. But I still might have tried Wright, because Ondrusek clearly wasn't on his game.

Amen. I literally told the Misses this game is over as soon as I saw him come in. In a close game? He got out of the first inning unscathed somehow, why bring him back for a second? Wright has filthy stuff for a reliever, but regardless, a horrible decision to bring in Ondrusek.

What did Beato or Andy Oliver do to get beaten out by this guy? Oliver Drake? Ondrusek doesn't deserve a 40-man spot.

Much much better options already in AAA or sign Hunter.

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Moshagge3 Hangout Grand Counsel

Moshagge3

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Increased it 2% over what?

Sorry, I should have used more precise math language. The Win Expectancy for a visiting team down one going into the bottom of the eighth is about 10%. If they hold the home team scoreless in the eighth it goes up to something like 12%. So Brach wouldn't be able to move the needle that much. Of course, Win Expectancy numbers just give you a picture in the aggregate and don't take into account who's pitching for the opponent, who's due up in the 9th, etc.

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

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Sorry, I should have used more precise math language. The Win Expectancy for a visiting team down one going into the bottom of the eighth is about 10%. If they hold the home team scoreless in the eighth it goes up to something like 12%. So Brach wouldn't be able to move the needle that much. Of course, Win Expectancy numbers just give you a picture in the aggregate and don't take into account who's pitching for the opponent, who's due up in the 9th, etc.

Thanks. What would it be giving up 1, 2 and 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th?

I'd have to think giving up just 1 run to go down 2 would take it down to 6%. So a scoreless 8th would double the chances of winning.

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Natty Hangout Veteran Council

Natty

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Speaking of being shut out. Did anyone else wonder why Davis didn't lay one down with AJ on third and the shift on? Easy run. His job is to drive in runs and that would have been accomplished

Because compared to many other teams, we don't hardly bunt or run. We try to win with power. And when the power does not happen. Look what does happen.

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