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How many wins will it take to make atleast the wild card game.

bpilktree

By bpilktree
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bpilktree Hangout Grand Counsel

bpilktree

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I was looking at the standings and trying to figure out what number we would likely need to get in as the wild card. I know everyone says the 90 mark but that does not seem to be the case. I am thinking 88 gets you atleast a tie of the second wild card.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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That seems somewhat likely. Here's what teams would have to do to get to 88 wins (excluding the division leaders):

BOS 16-16 (.500)

BAL 17-15 (.531)

DET 19-13 (.594)

KCR 20-12 (.625)

SEA 20-12 (.625)

HOU 20-12 (.625)

NYY 21-12 (.636)

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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90 to be safe. 88 may get you in, but that discounts any of those teams behind us getting red hot to end the season.
It also discounts us getting red hot.

I think the point is, while we don't know which team will get red hot, there's a decent chance that some contending team will. Could be us, could be someone else, but we can't assume that no team will get hot. There are four teams that have played .593 or bette in August, 3 did it in July, 5 did it in June, 4 in May, 1 in April.

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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I think the point is, while we don't know which team will get red hot, there's a decent chance that some contending team will. Could be us, could be someone else, but we can't assume that no team will get hot. There are four teams that have played .593 or bette in August, 3 did it in July, 5 did it in June, 4 in May, 1 in April.

The Royals, obviously, are lead contender, given that they're red hot as is.

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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Right now we are on pace for 88.4 wins with a 2 game lead on DET. It would seem that 89 should get it...but I will not feel safe until it is clinched. Too many teams in play, and DET, KC, and HOU all just pulled off better records in their last 10 than either us or BOS. Looks like a dogfight coming down to the wire.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Right now we are on pace for 88.4 wins with a 2 game lead on DET. It would seem that 89 should get it...but I will not feel safe until it is clinched. Too many teams in play, and DET, KC, and HOU all just pulled off better records in their last 10 than either us or BOS. Looks like a dogfight coming down to the wire.

From an objective point of view, as a fan of the sport, it's going to be a fascinating September. For us, it will be incredibly nerve-wracking.

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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What's scary for us is that teams play more division games over the last month. The teams in the central get to play Minn and CWS. The teams in the west get to play LAA and OAK. There are going to be a lot of nights where we scoreboard watch and see teams we're battling with play those 4 bottom feeders.

Catching Toronto and winning the AL East would be nice and all, but to be safe we need to get in front of BOS.

Can't depend on everyone else losing to get in. Someone is going to be up a 20-12 behind us. We need to be real close to that.

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VeveJones007 Hangout Veteran Council

VeveJones007

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From an objective point of view, as a fan of the sport, it's going to be a fascinating September. For us, it will be incredibly nerve-wracking.

At this point I hope it's nerve-racking because I have a sinking feeling that they're going to be 3+ game out in two weeks.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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That seems somewhat likely. Here's what teams would have to do to get to 88 wins (excluding the division leaders):

BOS 16-16 (.500)

BAL 17-15 (.531)

DET 19-13 (.594)

KCR 20-12 (.625)

SEA 20-12 (.625)

HOU 20-12 (.625)

NYY 21-12 (.636)

Now:

BOS 12-13 (.480)

BAL 13-12 (.520)

DET 13-12 (.520)

HOU 15-10 (.600)

NYY 17-9 (.654)

KCR 17-8 (.680)

SEA 18-7 (.720)

Detroit has made a big move since the OP, and I now think it's likely to take more than 88 wins to get the 2nd wild card.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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As said before, I worry about the Tigers. They have the hitting and the pitching.

And the schedule: 7 games with the Twins, 2 with the White Sox and 3 with the Braves. We really need to win our series with them in Detroit this weekend.

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