O's Offer Girardi Job

[Sports Guy]

1. He lost some time due to the fact that he did mission work.

Not the biggest deal in the world..Even if you want to look at him as a 26 y/o, his MiL were still unimpressive at the levels he was at.

2. While his K rate is maybe not as high as you would like, his stuff suggests that his K rate should be higher. This is possibly a product of him concentrating on learning how to pitch and throwing strikes versus trying to strike everyone out.

His K rate has always been low...What is your excuse for the low K rates in the minors?

3. We got rid of a late-bloomer a number of years ago who didn't have much of a k-rate--Jamie Moyer.

Myer is also left handed and possess a great changeup. I am sure being in Seattle and now in the NL helped him alot. Moyer also has very good control. Guthrie is showing that right now but hasn't throughout his career.

4. Though Guthrie's stuff isn't as good, Verlander is a guy who comes to mind who had a seemingly abnormally low k rate for his stuff last year. His k rate is now improving, but still isn't what you would expect for someone with his stuff.

Verlander is 4 years younger and had a career K rat eof over 10 in the minors...Guthrie's was around 6...Hopefully you can determine the difference from there.

5. Guys with k-rates similar to Guthrie who are pretty good.

Buerhle - 5.86

Halladay - 5.90

Blanton - 6.09

Halladay is normally above 6, which is where you want to be in terms of the average range..Halladay is also an extreme GB pitcher who doesn't give up many homers. BTW, you will notice that Halladay's ERA is very high for him this year.

Blanton has the K rate over 6, so he is fine..Also, i am sure he is helped out big time by his home park and he also has pin point control.

Buehrle's K rate is a little below average but it is close and it is no surprise that he is having a very good year in a year where his K rate is one fo the highest of his career. He has also shown great control. But he is giving up a ton of homers and with his K rate a little low, he could be in store for a bad second half, like a few years ago.

WS should trade him sooner than later.

BTW, i know you are going to say, in accordance to what i said about these guys, that Guthrie isn't giving up homers and has had great control as well. That is very true but that also goes against his career. 3 months or entire career...What is the better barometer?

[DrungoHazewood]

Just to provide some balance to Tony's gushing.

Some things to consider in evaluating Guthrie.

1. He lost some time due to the fact that he did mission work.

There's little evidence to suggest taking time off shifts one's development curve. He's still as likely as anyone to decline once he's past 28.

2. While his K rate is maybe not as high as you would like, his stuff suggests that his K rate should be higher. This is possibly a product of him concentrating on learning how to pitch and throwing strikes versus trying to strike everyone out.

Jorge Julio's stuff suggests he's K rate should be higher. So did a lot of pitchers. But it's not. And that's what matters.

3. We got rid of a late-bloomer a number of years ago who didn't have much of a k-rate--Jamie Moyer.

And Jamie Moyer was a one-in-a-million pitcher. I use him as a litmus test - if you call someone the new Jamie Moyer he's probably a junkballer with little chance of success, and since Moyer turned it around you're projecting his wildly unlikely career path onto everyone with a the same resume.

4. Though Guthrie's stuff isn't as good, Verlander is a guy who comes to mind who had a seemingly abnormally low k rate for his stuff last year. His k rate is now improving, but still isn't what you would expect for someone with his stuff.

Verlander is 24, made his MLB debut about a year after his last college start, and had a great K rate in the minors. Most very young pitchers see their K rate improve after a year or two in the league. Guthrie is 28, and has had a relatively low K rate in the minors.

5. Guys with k-rates similar to Guthrie who are pretty good.

Buerhle - 5.86

Halladay - 5.90

Blanton - 6.09

Guys with k-rates (since 2000) similar to Guthrie who flat-out suck:

Shawn Chacon - 5.91

Rocky Biddle - 6.21

Jose Acevedo - 6.18

There is a lot of value in sabremetrics but everyone needs to understand its limitations. Last year the sabermetricians said that the Nationals were fools for trading Brad Wilkerson for Alfonso Soriano. I saw more than one article saying that they might end up with roughly identical statistics. How did that work out?

There were numerous sabremetricians that were all set to write-off Jose Reyes early in his career. I have heard for a couple of years now that Wang can't keep it up in NY because his K rate is too low. J.D. Drew has made millions of dollars because he is such a favorite of sabermetricians.

SABRE GUYS PLEASE READ THIS PART. I AM A SUBSCRIBER TO BASEBALL PROSPECTUS. I BELIEVE IN THE VALUE OF STATISTICS. I AGREE THAT OBP IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN BATTING AVG, THAT RBI ARE VIRTUALLY WORTHLESS AS A STATISTIC, AND THAT K RATES GENERALLY ARE A GOOD WAY TO EVALUATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FUTURE SUCCESS. BUT, AS A MATH MAJOR LONG AGO, I ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT THE MORE COMPLICATED THE STATISTICAL COMPILATION, THE MORE LIKELY THERE IS ERROR THAT YOU HAVE FAILED TO ANTICIPATE.

A lot of people like analysis right up to the point where it doesn't fit their preconceived notions. Guthrie seems like his stuff should translate into lots of strikeouts and lots of success. So you talk about the limitations of the analysis rather than entertain the thought that he may regress because of a rather poor track record.

Statistics and sabermetrics are just taking what happened on the field, recording it, and looking for things in that record to try to figure out why it happened and what's likely to happen in the future. Sometimes Brad Wilkerson gets hurt. Sometimes a very, very extreme groundball pitcher like Wang can have success with a profile that's unique.

But most of the time a guy with a mediocre record in AAA and a good two-month stretch in the majors goes back to being mediocre. Not always. But usually. And usually is what you have to bet on if you want to succeed most of the time.

[jerios55]

Darn, just when I was starting to like Dave Trembley. I guess we won't get to see even one Sunday of Miggy DHing against his will.

And just as I talk about Miggy DHing he makes another error that doesn't get scored as one. That force at second would have been easy if he hadn't booted the ball. :002_smad:

Trembley would stay on though right?? It seems to me if he has a no BS mentality he would be a good coach to pair with Girardi.

[boogidownoriole]

MacPhail just said no tangible offer has been made yet

[MP]

MacPhail just said there is no offer yet for Girardi.

Edit: Jinx boogie!

[lostinlife28]

MacPhail just said no tangible offer has been made yet

No tangible offer? So is that the new word? Does it replace Process??

[boogidownoriole]

MacPhail just said there is no offer yet for Girardi.

Edit: Jinx boogie!

lmao! I am quick on the trigger:D

[markakis4pres]

I'm leaning towards that as well. Although I would not be upset with Girardi being named manager, I like a lot of what I'm hearing from Trembley. He wants things done right and although I'll reserve complete judgement on his in-game managing abilities once I see how he manages his bullpen, lineup and pinch hitting situations, I'm not sure it's such a bad idea to ride out the rest of the season with him and see where we are at the end of the season.

I'm not convinced Girardi really wants to be here and I really don't blame him to tell you the truth. Hopefully McPhail will change that feeling around baseball.

I think it was Buck Martinez who said that Trembley wants the players on the bench to watch the game and cheer the players instead of hanging out in the clubhouse.

He wants the respect of the players and wants them to play hard no matter what the situation is.

I wouldnt mind if we stuck with Trembley the rest of the year

[markpolis]

Just like Bruce Chen pal. We'll talk. When Guthrie's back to being an after-thought league-average 4-5 starter and the opportunity to potentially get a team's top 5 prospect for him is gone, we'll talk.

The amount of blinded homers is ridiculous. We are the biggest joke in professional baseball right now. Do all of you just crave to see a winning season so bad that you've thrown away all hopes of challenging for the division again someday? My plan, or a similar variation of it, actually makes sense. Quit calling me not a true fan and trying to write me off as a psycho just like you did about Chen when I'm right again about a pitcher.

A smart team would deal Guthrie.

I was never a Bruce Chen fan. I didn't say you were not a "true fan" and I didn't call you a "psycho". I think you've set a record for misquotes in one post.

BTW, don't act like a psycho or a little kid and others won't treat you like one.

[bryanman8]

I was never a Bruce Chen fan. I didn't say you were not a "true fan" and I didn't call you a "psycho". I think you've set a record for misquotes in one post.

BTW, don't act like a psycho or a little kid and others won't treat you like one.

You're a pain and you always have been. You insulted my age simply for voicing the opinion that Jeremy Guthrie is not a great pitcher and we should trade him. You do this time and time again and are always there to make a poke at my age when I voice an opinion that's the complete opposite of yours.

[bryanman8]

I disagree. I think Andy MacPhail is the reason he would take this job and the reason he would take this job is because he would have a lot of managerial say. MacPhail is going to be in charge of the franchise with player descisions and I am sure they told Girardi that things would be different. I am surpised that you don't see that. I have a hard time believing that Girardi would take the job if they told him everything would be the same.

Girardi would be the first step into a youth movement with spending cash for Girardi when he gets this ship turned around.

What makes you think MacPhail is the guy to build a winning baseball team here? Lot of Cubs fans call him McFail. What'd he have, one winning season in ten years? He's been out of baseball management for like the past year--I just really don't think he's got what it takes to turn this ship around.

It starts with the GM. We need to get a new one. Unless MacPhail tears it all down and trades Miggy and Trax and Walker and Bradford and Mora and Roberts and all them, he's going to give Girardi this team with maybe the addition of Torri Hunter and ask him to get us looking like a winning team.

It's the same thing Girardi did in Florida. He took a young solid group of guys and made the fans think they had enough there to win. Now that same team's still out there sans him and they're clearly not a playoff team.

If Girardi is able to get us 81 wins, I have no doubt we'll think we're contenders again and sign Hunter in the offseason and upgrade the bullpen once again and continue to stay the status quo.

[Sports Guy]

What makes you think MacPhail is the guy to build a winning baseball team here? Lot of Cubs fans call him McFail. What'd he have, one winning season in ten years? He's been out of baseball management for like the past year--I just really don't think he's got what it takes to turn this ship around.

It starts with the GM. We need to get a new one. Unless MacPhail tears it all down and trades Miggy and Trax and Walker and Bradford and Mora and Roberts and all them, he's going to give Girardi this team with maybe the addition of Torri Hunter and ask him to get us looking like a winning team.

It's the same thing Girardi did in Florida. He took a young solid group of guys and made the fans think they had enough there to win. Now that same team's still out there sans him and they're clearly not a playoff team.

If Girardi is able to get us 81 wins, I have no doubt we'll think we're contenders again and sign Hunter in the offseason and upgrade the bullpen once again and continue to stay the status quo.

Why not? Cause his name wasn't in moneyball?

If Wood and Prior were healthy, would you even be having this conversation?

[bryanman8]

Why not? Cause his name wasn't in moneyball?

If Wood and Prior were healthy, would you even be having this conversation?

Because he's not the innovative mind we need to turn this ship around. His tenure with the Cubs was a massive failure involving mainly Jim Hendry and Dusty Baker, two people I would not want anywhere near my baseball team.

Do you really think a traditionalist like him is gonna come in and start tearing this ship apart? Do you really think he's not on the exact page with Angelos and hence why he got the job? Angelos only cares about putting enough fans in the seats by hoving around .500. He's not going to tolerate 3 or so straight awful years to rebuild.

You were one of the biggest proponents of tearing it all up and remain one, SG. Please, don't be so easy and think MacPhail is actually going to do anything right.

[boogidownoriole]

I was just listening to Gammons on the Michael Kay show on the way home and he was really praising the Orioles moves if they get Girardi. He said this could be the start of the Orioles being the Orioles.

And he said he was just speaking with Stark and they both agreed that the Orioles will be on their way

Then, earlier, Kay had Schmuck on the show for a while and Schmuck was praising the Orioles starting pitchers (while saying the hitting is average) and that Tejada will be dealt.

Its great hearing so much Orioles stuff

[Sports Guy]

Because he's not the innovative mind we need to turn this ship around. His tenure with the Cubs was a massive failure involving mainly Jim Hendry and Dusty Baker, two people I would not want anywhere near my baseball team.

Do you really think a traditionalist like him is gonna come in and start tearing this ship apart? Do you really think he's not on the exact page with Angelos and hence why he got the job? Angelos only cares about putting enough fans in the seats by hoving around .500. He's not going to tolerate 3 or so straight awful years to rebuild.

You were one of the biggest proponents of tearing it all up and remain one, SG. Please, don't be so easy and think MacPhail is actually going to do anything right.

I don't know what he will do but i know i won't dismiss him at this point. He was the head of the Twins when they won and was 2 health ace starters away from having a legit shot in the NL central.

Bottom line is he has already stated that playoffs are the goal, not 500 like our current regime.

Now, the question is how does he achieve this? Does he think we just need to add on or do a full rebuild?

I am not sure what having an innovative mind has to do with anything here.

No one is asking for anything drastic..Just the obvious.