The 2017 OPS Projections Thread

[Frobby]

Once again, its time for my thread summarizing the offensive projections of various projection systems.     So far, ZiPS, Steamer, Rotochamp and CAIRO have come out with their player projections.     I have made my own assumptions about how many plate appearances each player will have.    Obviously, this will get tweaked as we see how the roster develops.   

I've also added a column showing 2016 actual performance, for comparison purposes.    You'll note that the total result for 2016 -- .748 OPS -- is lower than the team's actual 2016 OPS of .760.    There are two reasons for this: (1) change in personnel (Smith and Castillo for Alvarez and Wieters), and (2) using my 2017 guesstimates for plate appearances instead of actual 2016 plate appearances.    We were somewhat fortunate in terms of injuries to our best hitters in 2016, and my projections hedge on that a bit.   So really, the 2016 column on the chart is just to use as a baseline for people to see if a particular projection for a player is higher or lower than last year.

Player	 PA      ZiPS   Steamer CAIRO	RotoCh.	 2016

Davis	650	 0.843	0.810	0.803	0.810	0.791

Schoop	600	 0.750	0.746	0.723	0.734	0.752

Machado	650	 0.860	0.885	0.841	0.861	0.876

Hardy	500	 0.655	0.677	0.669	0.656	0.716

Flah'ty	200	 0.645	0.676	0.662	0.636	0.609

Cast'lo	400	 0.725	0.722	0.720	0.725	0.745

Joseph	200	 0.632	0.641	0.658	0.587	0.413

Kim 	450	 0.804	0.771	0.783	0.783	0.802

Jones	650	 0.754	0.782	0.760	0.759	0.746

Smith	450	 0.775	0.795	0.783	0.754	0.757

Trumbo	625	 0.798	0.812	0.791	0.804	0.849

Rickard	200	 0.648	0.692	0.746	0.705	0.696

Others	525	 0.600	0.600	0.600	0.600	0.591

						

Totals	6100     0.750	0.756	0.745	0.743	0.748

In summary, ZiPS and Steamer think our individual hitters will do a little better than last year, while CAIRO and Rotochamp think they'll do a little worse.   But in any event, the team projection comes down a bit from last year's actual for the reasons I explained above.    So, this suggests our offense will be close to last year's but probably not quite as good, mostly because we aren't likely to enjoy the same level of good health as in 2016.    Needless to say, we did have some guys who stayed off the DL in 2016 but played with some nagging injuries, including Davis and Jones, and maybe those guys can outperform what is projected here.

[25 Nuggets]

Yes - to simplify it, the Orioles resigned Trumbo, replaced Alavarez with Smith and replaced Wieters with Castillo.  Overall, looks quite similar.

I think it is worth saying that I expect Boston and Toronto to score less runs than last year, and for overall scoring in the AL East to go down.  I wonder what ZiPS and Steamer think about this.

[Aristotelian]

Kim out-OPSing Jones and Trumbo. Interesting. He beat Jones last year, but the projections see major regression for Trumbo. I guess it is possible he does not lead MLB in HR twice in a row.

Davis is the key. He is just as likely to hit .750 as he is .950. I guess .810-.840 is as good a prediction as any but I think that understates his potential for either total suckitude or total domination.

[backwardsk]

I'll take the over for Manny.

[Ohfan67]

Thanks for the work Frobby. 

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Kim out-OPSing Jones and Trumbo. Interesting. He beat Jones last year, but the projections see major regression for Trumbo. I guess it is possible he does not lead MLB in HR twice in a row.

Davis is the key. He is just as likely to hit .750 as he is .950. I guess .810-.840 is as good a prediction as any but I think that understates his potential for either total suckitude or total domination.

I think the .800ish projections for Trumbo are quite realistic.   He's a career 112 OPS hitter, and playing for the Orioles that puts him at about .800.    

Davis had a .792 OPS last year, and I don't see that as either total domination or total suckitude.   It's below what I would have projected, but much better than his lousy 2014 season (.704).    

[Frobby]

I didn't include Mancini because I doubt he'll be on the OD roster, but the projections think he'll be decent.   

ZiPS - .750

Steamer - .754

RotoChamp - .760

CAIRO - .775

[TommyPickles]

Great post, Frobby.

I think its interesting that every single projection has Schoop's OPS going down in his age 25 season...

I'll take the over on him.  I see him OPS'ing .755-.775.

[VeveJones007]

Overall, these seem reasonable. Smith is getting a very nice park-adjustment benefit. My one minor quibble is that several of these project Manny to slightly regress in 2017 compared to his performance in 2016. Unless there was some batted-ball randomness that was to his benefit in 2016, it's hard to see why a projection system would anticipate anything but improvement from a player his age with his track record.

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, VeveJones007 said:

Overall, these seem reasonable. Smith is getting a very nice park-adjustment benefit. My one minor quibble is that several of these project Manny to slightly regress in 2017 compared to his performance in 2016. Unless there was some batted-ball randomness that was to his benefit in 2016, it's hard to see why a projection system would anticipate anything but improvement from a player his age with his track record.

They have to make sure their 4th/5th place finish predictions for the Orioles makes sense. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, TommyPickles said:

Great post, Frobby.

I think its interesting that every single projection has Schoop's OPS going down in his age 25 season...

I'll take the over on him.  I see him OPS'ing .755-.775.

I can see Schoop going either direction.    His regression in the second half of the season was very disappointing.    He looked to be on the verge of becoming a star in the first half.    I don't know if the pitchers figured him out or whether he just lost his focus.    With just the smallest bit of plate discipline he can be a good hitter.  

[Spy Fox]

55 minutes ago, VeveJones007 said:

Overall, these seem reasonable. Smith is getting a very nice park-adjustment benefit. My one minor quibble is that several of these project Manny to slightly regress in 2017 compared to his performance in 2016. Unless there was some batted-ball randomness that was to his benefit in 2016, it's hard to see why a projection system would anticipate anything but improvement from a player his age with his track record.

I think it's a similar reason the projections don't usually project many 90+ win teams, because they're an average of tons of simulations, which tends to mute the more extreme results. So if you are already among the best in the league, it's probably not going to predict you to get much better. 

Also, I think that I had an impression that Manny's 2016 was another big step forward from his 2015. Probably because he started the season on such a roll for the first couple months. But I just looked at the numbers and he was basically equally good over the past two years. They were very similar stat-wise, and if anything 2016 was a (basically negligible) step down.

[Frobby]

Manny was pretty average (offensively) in the second half of the season.   Another guy who started swinging at everything, after a pretty disciplined first half.  

[Frobby]

On 1/22/2017 at 11:38 AM, Frobby said:

Once again, its time for my thread summarizing the offensive projections of various projection systems.     So far, ZiPS, Steamer, Rotochamp and CAIRO have come out with their player projections.     I have made my own assumptions about how many plate appearances each player will have.    Obviously, this will get tweaked as we see how the roster develops.   

I've also added a column showing 2016 actual performance, for comparison purposes.    You'll note that the total result for 2016 -- .748 OPS -- is lower than the team's actual 2016 OPS of .760.    There are two reasons for this: (1) change in personnel (Smith and Castillo for Alvarez and Wieters), and (2) using my 2017 guesstimates for plate appearances instead of actual 2016 plate appearances.    We were somewhat fortunate in terms of injuries to our best hitters in 2016, and my projections hedge on that a bit.   So really, the 2016 column on the chart is just to use as a baseline for people to see if a particular projection for a player is higher or lower than last year.

Player	 PA      ZiPS   Steamer CAIRO	RotoCh.	 2016



Davis	650	 0.843	0.810	0.803	0.810	0.791



Schoop	600	 0.750	0.746	0.723	0.734	0.752



Machado	650	 0.860	0.885	0.841	0.861	0.876



Hardy	500	 0.655	0.677	0.669	0.656	0.716



Flah'ty	200	 0.645	0.676	0.662	0.636	0.609



Cast'lo	400	 0.725	0.722	0.720	0.725	0.745



Joseph	200	 0.632	0.641	0.658	0.587	0.413



Kim 	450	 0.804	0.771	0.783	0.783	0.802



Jones	650	 0.754	0.782	0.760	0.759	0.746



Smith	450	 0.775	0.795	0.783	0.754	0.757



Trumbo	625	 0.798	0.812	0.791	0.804	0.849



Rickard	200	 0.648	0.692	0.746	0.705	0.696



Others	525	 0.600	0.600	0.600	0.600	0.591



						



Totals	6100     0.750	0.756	0.745	0.743	0.748

 

I thought it would be interesting to bump this in light of the thread that suggested the team wasn't really underperforming, but just dealing with the consequences of aging.    All these projection systems take aging into account.     The current team OPS of .734 is below what all of these systems projected.    Then throw in the fact that the overall offensive environment of the league is up this year (.19 runs game higher), and it's pretty clear that the offense has a lot of room to do better.

[sportsfan8703]

59 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I thought it would be interesting to bump this in light of the thread that suggested the team wasn't really underperforming, but just dealing with the consequences of aging.    All these projection systems take aging into account.     The current team OPS of .734 is below what all of these systems projected.    Then throw in the fact that the overall offensive environment of the league is up this year (.19 runs game higher), and it's pretty clear that the offense has a lot of room to do better.

Good bump.  Machado, Kim, Trumbo, and Davis have under performed.  Schoop, Mancini, and Joseph have over performed.  The under performers have been up more and bat in the important lineup spots.  Schoop, Mancini and Joseph, were expected to be our 6-8 hitters.