Could Manny Machado Leave For The Yankees?

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

I never said he was avg, but even with those numbers, I don't see a $30M per player.

If you look at fWAR, which measures both offense and defense, and weight it according to what teams have been willing to pay for WAR on the free agent market (currently, about $8 mm/WAR), then Manny's been worth over $50 mm/yr each of the last two seasons.     So you could argue $30 mm/yr is a bargain.   Put it this way, I'd much rather pay $30 mm/yr for Manny than $23 mm/yr for Davis.    

[Il BuonO]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If you look at fWAR, which measures both offense and defense, and weight it according to what teams have been willing to pay for WAR on the free agent market (currently, about $8 mm/WAR), then Manny's been worth over $50 mm/yr each of the last two seasons.     So you could argue $30 mm/yr is a bargain.   Put it this way, I'd much rather pay $30 mm/yr for Manny than $23 mm/yr for Davis.    

Well, that should go without saying unless you're in the Orioles FO. Then, apparently it needs to be stated explicitly.

[ORIOLE33]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If you look at fWAR, which measures both offense and defense, and weight it according to what teams have been willing to pay for WAR on the free agent market (currently, about $8 mm/WAR), then Manny's been worth over $50 mm/yr each of the last two seasons.     So you could argue $30 mm/yr is a bargain.   Put it this way, I'd much rather pay $30 mm/yr for Manny than $23 mm/yr for Davis.    

And why aren't there any $50M per players?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

And why aren't there any $50M per players?

I think there are a couple of reasons.     First, it's too risky to allocate that much money to a single person who might get injured or have a disappointing season.   Second, most free agents are older and likely to decline.    (Manny is an exception, but whatever team signs him will most likely have to pay for a bunch of decline years to get his prime years.)    I think if player contracts were year to year, you might see some $50 mm contracts (certainly you'd see some in the $40 mm+ range).    

[ORIOLE33]

If you're serious about competing, I don't see how anyone could afford a $40-$50M player. One guy taking up one half or one third of even a fourth of your total payroll is a bit much.

Even the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers won't do that.

[Dark Helmet]

3 hours ago, Mayor McCheese said:

No way.  This kid is a star.  He feeds off it.  Look at the WBC.  He loves it.  He gon'!

The WBC doesn't have the NY media questioning you after every game you go 0fer. Baltimore media doesn't pressure him. Manny's never been booed. 

They pay him $300+ m he better win some MVP awards. 

[Dark Helmet]

And for what it's worth, I actually think the Orioles will pony up and pay Manny. 

[ORIOLE33]

8 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

They pay him $300+ m he better win some MVP awards. 

 

That's exactly what I'm saying. I have yet to see THAT Manny. 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

The WBC doesn't have the NY media questioning you after every game you go 0fer. Baltimore media doesn't pressure him. Manny's never been booed. 

They pay him $300+ m he better win some MVP awards. 

If he wants to win some MVPS he better switch leagues.

[SouthRider]

I think the O's will make an effort to resign Manny.  I am not convinced Manny will want to stay.  Logic tells you if the O's are paying Manny 25-30 million a year they will have to make sacrifices elsewhere.   It lessens the O's chances of winning.   NY doesn't have this constraint.  Plus the big spotlight of NY might be appealing to him.   I think the O's best course of action is to gauge Manny's interest in resigning this off season and trade him if it doesn't look like it will happen.   You can't let a talent of his magnitude walk and get nothing in return.  

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he wants to win some MVPS he better switch leagues.

Trout is currently on pace for another 10 fWAR season. 

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Trout is currently on pace for another 10 fWAR season. 

Of course he is.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

 

That's exactly what I'm saying. I have yet to see THAT Manny. 

I think it partially comes down to how you value defense.   Manny ranks 11th in total fWAR since 2012, even though he only played 1/3 of the 2012 season and 1/2 of the 2014 season.    On a per-game basis, he ranks 4th (Trout, Donaldson, Votto).    Trout's obviously in another universe.    Donaldson's 31 years old and still hasn't hit free agency.    Votto is 33 and is making $22 mm this year, then $25 mm/yr at ages 35-39.    Manny, meanwhile, will be 26 the season after he becomes a free agent.    His youth is a huge factor in this equation.

Now, I think there's at least some evidence that the market values offense more heavily than stats like fWAR do.     I guess we will find out in two years what the market thinks Manny is worth.   But payrolls are increasing every year, and I think you're going to be surprised.     

[Dark Helmet]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he wants to win some MVPS he better switch leagues.

Kris Bryant is still in the NL.

Point is, if Manny gets 300-400 m from the Yankees, he better be in the MVP conversation and probably win it atleast once or he will get their wrath.

Sub .300 BA and sub 100 RBI seasons won't cut it there. They think their getting the second coming of Alex Rodriguez in his roided up prime.

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Kris Bryant is still in the NL.

Point is, if Manny gets 300-400 m from the Yankees, he better be in the MVP conversation and probably win it atleast once or he will get their wrath.

Sub .300 BA and sub 100 RBI seasons won't cut it there. They think their getting the second coming of Alex Rodriguez in his roided up prime.

 

I'll take my chances with Bryant over Trout.  You could make a pretty compelling case that Trout should have five MVPs by now.