Baltimore Orioles recent draft results

[eb45]

That may have been Billy Beane's premise, but Michael Lewis' premise was to find out how the A's could win on a low budget. The players the A's were able to get were clearly not the ones they would have had had they had the resources of other teams (you really think Billy Beane would have taken Miguel Tejada, David Justice, and Scott Hatteberg over Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Jim Thome?), but they provided the most value the A's could get within their payroll constraints.

The book's thesis is that it is possible to win without overspending if you are ahead of the curve at identifying where you can get more value for less money. Sabermetrics are an example that worked, and because it worked, there was a book written using it as the primary example. But the Moneyball principle is that in order to win with limited resources, a team must break with "conventional wisdom". There's nothing that says sabermetrics are the only potential application of the principle.

[glenn__davis]

Was just reviewing the draft results for the past 5 years...

2008

Matusz has become a lefty specialist

Avery and Hoes still possible potential as a 4th or 5th outfielder, but neither is particularly exciting at this point

Caleb Joseph may be able to forge a backup career somewhere.

Bobby Bundy is injured and his star seemed to be fading before the injury anyway.

2009

We all know about Hobgood

Ohlman is showing some promise with the bat I suppose, but still seems like a longshot

Ty Kelly maybe has a shot at a utility infielder

Tim Berry has shown some promise at Delmarva and Frederick but again seems like a longshot

2010

Machado. Yeah

No one else from this draft right now strikes me as having much shot at a big league career. How depressing is that after just 2 full years of baseball. Maybe Schrader if he can get the walks under control.

2011

You've got Bundy and Delmonico as solid big league prospects.

Mike Wright probably is a fringe guy.

I know the O's had liked the stuff of Jones and Davies, but both seem to me to be longshots to contribute at this point.

2012

Obviously too soon to tell much of anything for most of these guys.

We know about Gausman.

Marin Walker and Hader are off to solid pro starts.

Rutledge having a good season out of the bullpen.

Again, just too soon to tell with a lot of the others.

Have I missed anyone?

I gotta say, I know most of us knew this anyway, but looking back over the recent results was pretty depressing. From Jordan's last 4 drafts, I count 4 players that are either in the majors or have strong potential to contribute in the majors (Matusz, Machado, D. Bundy, Delmonico). A few other fringe-y type guys, but probably no one that is going to have a huge impact.

2009-2010 is particularly depressing. It looks like in just 3-4 years those drafts have essentially turned into Machado. Pretty quick flameouts from just about everyone else. Which is not to say I'm totally giving up on all the rest of those guys, but their odds all seem long.

Like I said, I know this isn't anything we didn't already know, but the Rajisch guys from last year do seem to at least be off to a decent start. Let's hope the Rajisch/Duquette scouting and development team is much better than the results from the Jordan/MacPhail era.

[eb45]

Unless I missed someone, the only guy from the 2009 and 2010 draft classes who is even at Norfolk right now is Jake Pettit, who has worked his way through the minors apparently by sheer force of will. He might get a cup of coffee, I guess. Otherwise, yeah, those classes are pretty dire.

[glenn__davis]

Unless I missed someone, the only guy from the 2009 and 2010 draft classes who is even at Norfolk right now is Jake Pettit, who has worked his way through the minors apparently by sheer force of will. He might get a cup of coffee, I guess. Otherwise, yeah, those classes are pretty dire.

I'm just pretty amazed at how quickly they went south. 3-4 years in you have 1 player who looks like a legitimate major leaguer right now. And that player was a consensus top 5 pick. They'd be hard-pressed to do much worse than that.

[glenn__davis]

Just because I always enjoy looking back:

2008

Probably about ready to close the book on this one. Matusz and Caleb Joseph are your only "real" contributors, though 10th rounder Chris Hermann has gotten in some time with Minnesota. Ollie Drake may become a bullpen arm.

2009

Maybe Mychel Givens and Tim Berry turn into bullpen arms. Even the most ardent Hobgood supporters have to have little faith left at this point. All in all, an amazingly horrible draft.

2010

Pretty much has turned into the Machado class. Bridwell still being his enigmatic self at Bowie. As mentioned elsewhere on the board, 21st rounder Scott Copeland has made some appearances for the Jays. 11th rounder ChiChi Gonzalez was not signed and was an eventual first round pick by the Rangers, for whom he has started 3 games this year (and pitched very well actually).

2011

Class will be mostly judged on Dylan Bundy's health. Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson are contributing at the ML level, and Zach Davies has slowly but steadily climbed his way up.

2012

Gausman is your blue chipper. After that a few guys with some potential but also big question marks in Branden Kline, Adrian Marin, Christian Walker and Josh Hader, who of course is no longer in the organization. I'd be pretty surprised if anyone other than Gausman made a major contribution.

2013

Birds-eye-view wise, probably the best overall draft in recent memory to date, even if no one has had time to make it all the way up yet. Harvey, Hart, Sisco, Heim, Tarpley, Murphy, Dosch, Mancini, Yazstremski all of have had some success or still have potential ffor success. Again, obviously Harvey's health is a big factor here.

2014

Beats me. 3rd rounder Brian Gonzalez was actually the teams 1st pick and has put up mediocre-at-best numbers at Delmarva. Connaughton probably can't be counted on at all at this point. One year in, is there anyone from this draft to be excited about? I truly don't know.

Did I miss anyone? Obviously things can change and some guys can still make some steps forward. For example, when I did this 2 years ago I didn't even mention Tyler Wilson, and here is on the club this year.

[murph]

Just because I always enjoy looking back:

2008

Probably about ready to close the book on this one. Matusz and Caleb Joseph are your only "real" contributors, though 10th rounder Chris Hermann has gotten in some time with Minnesota. Ollie Drake may become a bullpen arm.

2009

Maybe Mychel Givens and Tim Berry turn into bullpen arms. Even the most ardent Hobgood supporters have to have little faith left at this point. All in all, an amazingly horrible draft.

2010

Pretty much has turned into the Machado class. Bridwell still being his enigmatic self at Bowie. As mentioned elsewhere on the board, 21st rounder Scott Copeland has made some appearances for the Jays. 11th rounder ChiChi Gonzalez was not signed and was an eventual first round pick by the Rangers, for whom he has started 3 games this year (and pitched very well actually).

2011

Class will be mostly judged on Dylan Bundy's health. Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson are contributing at the ML level, and Zach Davies has slowly but steadily climbed his way up.

2012

Gausman is your blue chipper. After that a few guys with some potential but also big question marks in Branden Kline, Adrian Marin, Christian Walker and Josh Hader, who of course is no longer in the organization. I'd be pretty surprised if anyone other than Gausman made a major contribution.

2013

Birds-eye-view wise, probably the best overall draft in recent memory to date, even if no one has had time to make it all the way up yet. Harvey, Hart, Sisco, Heim, Tarpley, Murphy, Dosch, Mancini, Yazstremski all of have had some success or still have potential ffor success. Again, obviously Harvey's health is a big factor here.

2014

Beats me. 3rd rounder Brian Gonzalez was actually the teams 1st pick and has put up mediocre-at-best numbers at Delmarva. Connaughton probably can't be counted on at all at this point. One year in, is there anyone from this draft to be excited about? I truly don't know.

Did I miss anyone? Obviously things can change and some guys can still make some steps forward. For example, when I did this 2 years ago I didn't even mention Tyler Wilson, and here is on the club this year.

Nice summary.

Wow, what happened to Gonzalez's command? BB/9 went from 2.7 to 5.1.

[waroriole]

2011 is shaping up nicely. Year of the pitcher.

[Otter]

Just because I always enjoy looking back:

2008

Probably about ready to close the book on this one. Matusz and Caleb Joseph are your only "real" contributors, though 10th rounder Chris Hermann has gotten in some time with Minnesota. Ollie Drake may become a bullpen arm.

2009

Maybe Mychel Givens and Tim Berry turn into bullpen arms. Even the most ardent Hobgood supporters have to have little faith left at this point. All in all, an amazingly horrible draft.

2010

Pretty much has turned into the Machado class. Bridwell still being his enigmatic self at Bowie. As mentioned elsewhere on the board, 21st rounder Scott Copeland has made some appearances for the Jays. 11th rounder ChiChi Gonzalez was not signed and was an eventual first round pick by the Rangers, for whom he has started 3 games this year (and pitched very well actually).

2011

Class will be mostly judged on Dylan Bundy's health. Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson are contributing at the ML level, and Zach Davies has slowly but steadily climbed his way up.

2012

Gausman is your blue chipper. After that a few guys with some potential but also big question marks in Branden Kline, Adrian Marin, Christian Walker and Josh Hader, who of course is no longer in the organization. I'd be pretty surprised if anyone other than Gausman made a major contribution.

2013

Birds-eye-view wise, probably the best overall draft in recent memory to date, even if no one has had time to make it all the way up yet. Harvey, Hart, Sisco, Heim, Tarpley, Murphy, Dosch, Mancini, Yazstremski all of have had some success or still have potential ffor success. Again, obviously Harvey's health is a big factor here.

2014

Beats me. 3rd rounder Brian Gonzalez was actually the teams 1st pick and has put up mediocre-at-best numbers at Delmarva. Connaughton probably can't be counted on at all at this point. One year in, is there anyone from this draft to be excited about? I truly don't know.

Did I miss anyone? Obviously things can change and some guys can still make some steps forward. For example, when I did this 2 years ago I didn't even mention Tyler Wilson, and here is on the club this year.

Thanks for the summary; very interesting and a little depressing as well. I wonder how our last 7 draft classes compare to other organizations regarding how many made it to the majors (and not necessarily with their original team).