Could this be Buck's best Orioles team?

[MDtransplant757]

I think this team is on par with the 2014 team for the most part. Way better depth than in 2014, but the BP isn't as good. Mancini is going to be our Nelson Cruz this year. I like this team more when Britton comes back. 

[Ohfan67]

I found still playing well in early July, then the Orioles will need to get a couple of real pieces for playoff push. Someone mentioned Miller in 2014...they may have to do that and more. I hope some of the prospects turn it on to increase their trade value!

[Braydog 9]

4 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

None of Buck's teams have been complete, but he's made the most out of them.  However, this team is doing it with smoke and mirrors to date:

3.  To date, everything has gone right for the Orioles in terms of clutch stats.  They are 8-1 in 1-run games, they are mashing the ball with RISP (.863 OPS #1, #3 OBP, #2 SLG in AL).  Meanwhile, the Pitchers are 5th in the league in opposing OPS with RISP.  Extreme clutch performance is a harsh mistress and these advantages won't hold up.

4.  The Orioles are 5 games ahead of their pythagorean W/L record based on their RS/RA (143-129).  They have a .719 OPS and .723 OPS allowed.  So the RS advantage they have had will likely require improvement to maintain.  If they do maintain or even pick up more run differential, they are unlikely to arrange those as fortunately as they have to date.

For this to be a 95-win team, I have to project a great deal of improvement in the baseline (overall, not necessarily clutch) performance and I think there are as many negative indicators as positive.

The Orioles have a solid team capable of making the playoffs, but not in the class with the 2014 team.

Question (I legitimately don't know the answer), does pythag take into account the level of competition insofar as predicting future success?  If not, I'd argue it could be very misleading in this case to look at those stats to predict the Orioles future W/L without comparing it to the fact the Os have faced a very tough schedule.  In other words, if the pythag argument is that the the margin by which they are beating teams (I know that's simplifying it a bit) indicates that their current W/L is skewed with "extra" wins, shouldn't the fact that they've played good competition counter that a bit (i.e., less likely to dominate good teams) when trying to forecast future W/L record?  

Just did some quick math and it looks like the O's have played 20 games against teams above .500 (8 of those against teams above .600) and only 12 games against teams below .500.  Not to mention 3 of the games vs. teams below .500 were against the White Sox who are only one game below.

 

Yankees (.677) played 6 times. 

Nats (.626) played 2 times.

Reds (.545) played 3 times.

Red Sox (.531) played 9 times.

White Sox (.484) played 3 times.

Rays (.457) played 3 times.

Blue Jays (.364) played 6 times.

[glenn__davis]

"You're never as good as you look when you win, and you're never as bad as you look when you lose."

Cliche, yes, but probably applies to baseball more than any other sport.

As Filmstudy mentions above, the O's have been pretty fortunate to date.  The good news is that they've been fortunate at a time when playing a schedule heavy on division opponents.  The worm will turn eventually, so hopefully this great start will give us a bit of a cushion.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, VeveJones007 said:

Despite the 22-10 record, there are reasons for skepticism. It's still too small of a sample. Ask me again in August.

Yes, there are reasons for skepticism.   There's a reason I framed the question as whether this "could be" Buck's best team, rather than whether it "is."

[DirtyBird]

9 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

"You're never as good as you look when you win, and you're never as bad as you look when you lose."

Cliche, yes, but probably applies to baseball more than any other sport.

As Filmstudy mentions above, the O's have been pretty fortunate to date.  The good news is that they've been fortunate at a time when playing a schedule heavy on division opponents.  The worm will turn eventually, so hopefully this great start will give us a bit of a cushion.

Besides winning one-run games, how have we been fortunate?

[Spy Fox]

One other thing I haven't seen mentioned is that the 2014 team was only 42-39 in the first 81 games before having an amazing second half. And they  were 18-14 after 32 games, where we are currently 22-10.

So on one hand, we have a head start on that team in terms of reaching a high win total. But on the other hand, it's another example of how it's hard to be sure about a team's eventual success even with a sample size of two or three months. 

[gmelson26]

5 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

None of Buck's teams have been complete, but he's made the most out of them.  However, this team is doing it with smoke and mirrors to date:

1.  This is the worst defensive team of the lot, particularly in the outfield.  It's not the worst in the league (in the pack in DER at .704), but they won't act as suspenders for the pitching staff.

2.  Both the offense and pitching continue to have substandard walk totals.  On offense that means the SLG is better than the OBP.  The pitchers allow higher OBPs and lower SLG.  In each case that's the less valuable combination.

3.  To date, everything has gone right for the Orioles in terms of clutch stats.  They are 8-1 in 1-run games, they are mashing the ball with RISP (.863 OPS #1, #3 OBP, #2 SLG in AL).  Meanwhile, the Pitchers are 5th in the league in opposing OPS with RISP.  Extreme clutch performance is a harsh mistress and these advantages won't hold up.

4.  The Orioles are 5 games ahead of their pythagorean W/L record based on their RS/RA (143-129).  They have a .719 OPS and .723 OPS allowed.  So the RS advantage they have had will likely require improvement to maintain.  If they do maintain or even pick up more run differential, they are unlikely to arrange those as fortunately as they have to date.

For this to be a 95-win team, I have to project a great deal of improvement in the baseline (overall, not necessarily clutch) performance and I think there are as many negative indicators as positive.

The Orioles have a solid team capable of making the playoffs, but not in the class with the 2014 team.

I hear what you're saying and agree.... however, this doesn't paint a full picture either.  Here is a list of players who are batting below .240: Chris Davis, Caleb Joseph, Mark Trumbo, Kim, Manny Machado, JJ Hardy, Gentry, and Flash.  Of that group, I think we can expect better numbers from Davis, Trumbo, Machado, Gentry, and Flash.  I think we'll see better production from Jones as well.

Our de facto ace, Tillman, has been out all year and looks to return to form given his one start.  The best closer in baseball had been pitching- presumably- a bit hurt and is on the DL for the 2nd time, due back healthy in June.  I refuse to believe Gausman will have a 7 ERA going forward or O'Day at nearly 5+ ERA for that matter.

You have to think DD and Buck will make some move, probably giving up more than most of us are ok with, but still, giving us an upgrade at the break.

 

Yes, some of the hitting and pitching will also regress.  Regardless, I just want to point out that we haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders.  We have been doing it on smoke-and-mirrors, so there's some reason to suggest that we might actually be better than this.

[TINSTAAPP]

5 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

None of Buck's teams have been complete, but he's made the most out of them.  However, this team is doing it with smoke and mirrors to date:

1.  This is the worst defensive team of the lot, particularly in the outfield.  It's not the worst in the league (in the pack in DER at .704), but they won't act as suspenders for the pitching staff.

2.  Both the offense and pitching continue to have substandard walk totals.  On offense that means the SLG is better than the OBP.  The pitchers allow higher OBPs and lower SLG.  In each case that's the less valuable combination.

3.  To date, everything has gone right for the Orioles in terms of clutch stats.  They are 8-1 in 1-run games, they are mashing the ball with RISP (.863 OPS #1, #3 OBP, #2 SLG in AL).  Meanwhile, the Pitchers are 5th in the league in opposing OPS with RISP.  Extreme clutch performance is a harsh mistress and these advantages won't hold up.

4.  The Orioles are 5 games ahead of their pythagorean W/L record based on their RS/RA (143-129).  They have a .719 OPS and .723 OPS allowed.  So the RS advantage they have had will likely require improvement to maintain.  If they do maintain or even pick up more run differential, they are unlikely to arrange those as fortunately as they have to date.

For this to be a 95-win team, I have to project a great deal of improvement in the baseline (overall, not necessarily clutch) performance and I think there are as many negative indicators as positive.

The Orioles have a solid team capable of making the playoffs, but not in the class with the 2014 team.

All of those statistics remind me a lot of last year's Rangers team especially the RISP numbers and how opposing teams had a better OPS against them. The Orioles are due to fall back to earth but it could also be one of those magical years where all of the breaks just go their way. 

[Natty]

Best record in the Majors. 

The Force is with us.

[TINSTAAPP]

34 minutes ago, gmelson26 said:

I hear what you're saying and agree.... however, this doesn't paint a full picture either.  Here is a list of players who are batting below .240: Chris Davis, Caleb Joseph, Mark Trumbo, Kim, Manny Machado, JJ Hardy, Gentry, and Flash.  Of that group, I think we can expect better numbers from Davis, Trumbo, Machado, Gentry, and Flash.  I think we'll see better production from Jones as well.

Our de facto ace, Tillman, has been out all year and looks to return to form given his one start.  The best closer in baseball had been pitching- presumably- a bit hurt and is on the DL for the 2nd time, due back healthy in June.  I refuse to believe Gausman will have a 7 ERA going forward or O'Day at nearly 5+ ERA for that matter.

You have to think DD and Buck will make some move, probably giving up more than most of us are ok with, but still, giving us an upgrade at the break.

 

Yes, some of the hitting and pitching will also regress.  Regardless, I just want to point out that we haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders.  We have been doing it on smoke-and-mirrors, so there's some reason to suggest that we might actually be better than this.

OTOH, Trey Mancini has a HR/FB ratio of 41.2% and a .351 BABIP. Those numbers aren't sustainable and he's going to come back to earth. Same thing with Seth Smith who is putting up a .311/.408/.541 line and Schoop who is hitting over .300 with a .884 OPS. Plus there's Wade Miley with a 2.27 ERA and Bundy with a 2.17 ERA and Alec Asher with a sub-3 ERA, etc... Also, the back end of the bullpen has major question marks with Britton out for two months. Can Brach adjust to being the closer? Can O'Day return to form? Also what about the middle relief? Do they have relievers in AAA who can pitch effectively and eat up innings so they don't overuse guys like Hart and Givens? 

[Aristotelian]

It's all about Bundy, in my opinion. So far he has been an ace. I am not predicting that it continues, but that has been a huge difference between this team and past teams. But if it continues, and Tillman, Gausman, and Miley can just be what they usually are along with something out of Ubaldo, I think we have the best rotation we have had in a long time.  

Other than that it is pretty much the same team, with a strong bullpen, and a lot of HR's. Still the same old high K's and mediocre OF defense. Give that team an Ace, and you have a divisional contender rather than a wild card contender.

[Aristotelian]

I also love the roster construction with the extra bench and the optionable shuttle guys. 

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

OTOH, Trey Mancini has a HR/FB ratio of 41.2% and a .351 BABIP. Those numbers aren't sustainable and he's going to come back to earth. Same thing with Seth Smith who is putting up a .311/.408/.541 line and Schoop who is hitting over .300 with a .884 OPS. Plus there's Wade Miley with a 2.27 ERA and Bundy with a 2.17 ERA and Alec Asher with a sub-3 ERA, etc... Also, the back end of the bullpen has major question marks with Britton out for two months. Can Brach adjust to being the closer? Can O'Day return to form? Also what about the middle relief? Do they have relievers in AAA who can pitch effectively and eat up innings so they don't overuse guys like Hart and Givens? 

Why would you expect Seth Smith's numbers to go down that much? He's had consistent historical success vs RHB (which is about all he'll face here) and at Camden Yards.

Schoop has been trending towards becoming a reliable offensive threat for a few years now, and is now coming into his prime age.

You don't mention Chris Davis, who has 4 RBI in over 30 PA w/ RISP, and only 8 RBI total.

[TINSTAAPP]

16 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Why would you expect Seth Smith's numbers to go down that much? He's had consistent historical success vs RHB (which is about all he'll face here) and at Camden Yards.

Schoop has been trending towards becoming a reliable offensive threat for a few years now, and is now coming into his prime age.

You don't mention Chris Davis, who has 4 RBI in over 30 PA w/ RISP, and only 8 RBI total.

Because he's not that type of hitter. There's a reason why the Mariners traded him away for Gallardo. Even if you go by his strict platoon stats, he's a career .272/.356/.473 hitter against right-handed pitching. If you look at his last five seasons, Smith's OPS is under .800 against right-handed pitching. And I don't think Davis has underachieved that much this year except for his ISO. Right now, Davis is hitting .239 with a .351 OBP. I'll be very happy if Davis finishes the year with those BA and OBP numbers.