Manny - Time for an intervention?

[ORIOLE33]

Just now, ORIOLE33 said:

This. He's not crushing the ball as much as some would have you believe.

 

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

No MLB player is worth 300 to 400 million. Dan said that it is hard to have a complete roster when one player is taking up that much payroll. I have to agree with him. There have not been very many 200 million plus contracts that have worked out for that particular team.

[ArtVanDelay]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I watch the games.   I don't see him crushing the ball all year long and I see him having some awful AB's where he's swinging at bad breaking balls more than I have noticed before.   He might be hitting into bad luck but he definitely is not swinging the bat well right now except for the occasional home run which is great.   He's just not a well rounded all fields hitter right now.

He's tied for 11th in average exit velocity.  That is crushing the ball.  I agree that he's also swinging at bad pitches.

He's striking out at career high rates but also walking at career high rates.  This is what baseball has become.  Three true outcomes.

[ArtVanDelay]

27 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Post of the day!

How much a is a 7 win player worth over 10 years? Do tell.

$560MM.

Of course there's almost no chance that he puts up 70 WAR over a 10 year FA deal.   I could see 40 WAR, though -- which would be worth $320MM.

[TradeAngelos]

3 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

$560MM.

Of course there's almost no chance that he puts up 70 WAR over a 10 year FA deal.   I could see 40 WAR, though -- which would be worth $320MM.

40 wins over 10 years is probably the absolute worst case scenario. Take a look at the players who have accumulated 30 wins through their age 24 season and tell me what happened over the next 10 years in their respective careers. (I actually have it on a spreadsheet somewhere). An act of God would have to occur for him to not be worth that contract, or even outpace it by a good margin considering salary inflation over that time.

[El Gordo]

According to pitch fx his O swing% is the lowest of his career. His Z contact% is down as well,  He is not chasing as many bad pitches but he is missing more strikes. Seeing more curves and sliders fewer FB and CU. Line drive % is down, FB % up, HR/FB up IFF% up.

[Beef Supreme]

Someone in the organization needs to impress upon him the importance of setting his feet before throwing after fielding a grounder. Sure, you don't always have time, but he has runners out by two steps yet still hog dogs his throws. Davis has saved him 10 throwing errors this year! (unsubstantiated, just a guess. But Davis has saved Manny from being charged with many throwing errors already this season.)

[Emory Eagle]

Manny will be OK folks, the talent is there and the production will follow.  

[osfan83]

Manny has his flaws, but he will be a perennial all-star over the next 10 years and a possible hall of famer. I think I'll take that, flaws and all. 

[Tony-OH]

I'm sorry, but Manny is the last guy I'm worried about. Does he have some ABs on occasion? Yep. But his BABIP is real low and it won't stay there. I do think he's trying to hit too many home runs at times and he's been pretty terrible in productive out situations (2 for 12), but I'm not worried at all about him. On the list of my concerns about the Orioles current roster and situation, he's about number 24.

[InsideCoroner]

On 5/14/2017 at 7:38 PM, TradeAngelos said:

40 wins over 10 years is probably the absolute worst case scenario. Take a look at the players who have accumulated 30 wins through their age 24 season and tell me what happened over the next 10 years in their respective careers. (I actually have it on a spreadsheet somewhere). An act of God would have to occur for him to not be worth that contract, or even outpace it by a good margin considering salary inflation over that time.

It doesn't take a force majeure for someone to collide with one of his knees -- don't you think a few Red Sox would 'accidentally' barrel roll into him on a close play at third if given the chance? It would be tragic having him wind up another "he could have been a legend" player like Dickie Thon... but it's absolutely possible.

[Frobby]

On 5/14/2017 at 0:25 PM, ArtVanDelay said:

Do you watch the games?  He's been crushing the ball all year.  He's just hitting them at people.  He's been unlucky. 

He's had some bad at bats lately, including a couple last night.   Still, he did go 3 for 7.    I can't say I'm too worried.    

[Frobby]

On 5/14/2017 at 1:38 PM, TradeAngelos said:

40 wins over 10 years is probably the absolute worst case scenario. Take a look at the players who have accumulated 30 wins through their age 24 season and tell me what happened over the next 10 years in their respective careers. (I actually have it on a spreadsheet somewhere). An act of God would have to occur for him to not be worth that contract, or even outpace it by a good margin considering salary inflation over that time.

I agree -- if he stays healthy, and assuming you buy into a linear relationship between WAR and economic value.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 5/14/2017 at 1:29 PM, ArtVanDelay said:

$560MM.

Of course there's almost no chance that he puts up 70 WAR over a 10 year FA deal.   I could see 40 WAR, though -- which would be worth $320MM.

I wouldn't say almost no chance.  There have been 16 players who had at least 30 rWAR through at 24.  Manny will probably make 17.  Here are what they did over their next 10 seasons (or in Mike Trout's case, the first 36 games of his next 10 years):

                                                                                                                                                                            
	Rk           Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB IBB   SO HBP SH SF GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS        Pos                  Tm
	1    Rogers Hornsby    83.8 1921 1930 25-34 1323 5854 4966 1114 1899 366  96 243 1077     705  393  22       156  62  47 .382 .461 .642 1.103   *4/H3765     STL-NYG-BSN-CHC
	2      Tris Speaker    74.1 1913 1922 25-34 1418 6115 5156  980 1807 410 127  35  746     751  152  51       151 248 101 .350 .438 .500  .938    *8/H139             BOS-CLE
	3           Ty Cobb    73.1 1912 1921 25-34 1288 5637 4872 1007 1846 296 148  45  773     608  289  39       104 465 138 .379 .452 .528  .980 *8/9H31475                 DET
	4    Alex Rodriguez    71.4 2001 2010 25-34 1513 6691 5700 1130 1706 280  16 424 1236 809  78 1220 121  0 61 146 168  36 .299 .394 .577  .971     *56/DH             TEX-NYY
	5     Eddie Mathews    62.8 1957 1966 25-34 1491 6391 5415  955 1466 219  46 303  896 905  57  944  16 20 35  84  40  21 .271 .375 .496  .871     *5/H73             MLN-ATL
	6     Mickey Mantle    62.3 1957 1966 25-34 1305 5316 4283  914 1297 177  28 323  825 996 100  922   6  4 27  74 103  19 .303 .433 .583 1.016     *87/H9                 NYY
	7           Mel Ott    62.1 1934 1943 25-34 1457 6260 5167 1013 1558 253  37 287  984    1002  535  35    51  62      48 .302 .418 .531  .950    *95/H87                 NYG
	8       Jimmie Foxx    60.0 1933 1942 25-34 1403 6136 5140 1109 1662 287  67 353 1215     967  890   8    17  66  58  39 .323 .431 .611 1.043 *3/2H57961         PHA-BOS-CHC
	9      Ted Williams    51.8 1946 1953 27-34  878 3945 3083  751 1055 218  29 210  783     853  258   9     1  77   9   4 .342 .486 .636 1.122       *7/H                 BOS
	10        Al Kaline    48.6 1960 1969 25-34 1322 5473 4730  811 1399 247  31 210  772 652  65  489  25 20 46 122  73  23 .296 .381 .494  .875   *98/H375                 DET
	11     Johnny Bench    43.1 1973 1982 25-34 1266 5111 4461  638 1188 224  10 223  810 579  80  770  11  7 49 113  48  21 .266 .349 .471  .820   *25/3H79                 CIN
	12      Ken Griffey    42.1 1995 2004 25-34 1152 4911 4199  802 1184 206  17 329  901 610 107  846  53  3 46  77  90  25 .282 .376 .574  .951   *8/HD793             SEA-CIN
	13     Arky Vaughan    36.6 1937 1943 25-31  965 4245 3678  629 1126 199  65  38  450     477  131  21    67  40      81 .306 .389 .427  .815    *65/H74             PIT-BRO
	14     Andruw Jones    31.5 2002 2011 25-34 1275 5083 4406  694 1095 222  13 270  790 569  44 1067  63  0 45 134  46  22 .249 .340 .489  .828   *8/D97H3 ATL-LAD-TEX-CHW-NYY
	15      Vada Pinson    23.1 1964 1973 25-34 1446 6078 5646  720 1563 260  70 144  661 310  44  707  37 39 48  95 148  66 .277 .316 .424  .740    *897/H3     CIN-STL-CLE-CAL
	16       Mike Trout     2.8 2017 2017 25-25   36  157  128   27   44  10   2  12   27  23   6   29   4  0  2   3   8   1 .344 .452 .734 1.187       /*8D                 LAA
	

The median is 60 wins, and four players were over 70.  Bench was a catcher and was done in his early 30s.  Vaughan basically quit after his age 31 season, so his 37 wins were only in 7 years.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

It doesn't take a force majeure for someone to collide with one of his knees -- don't you think a few Red Sox would 'accidentally' barrel roll into him on a close play at third if given the chance? It would be tragic having him wind up another "he could have been a legend" player like Dickie Thon... but it's absolutely possible.

You can bake revenge into your salary/worth calculations if you'd like.  I'm sure the actuary tables include the impact of meteor strikes and the like.