Manny - Time for an intervention?

[TheWall]

The negativity surrounding Manny is hilarious. He's crushing the ball and having bad luck. It'll all even out and he'll have another 6 WAR season.

[ORIOLE33]

Manny's lucky he's not playing in NY.

[Uli2001]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I wouldn't say almost no chance.  There have been 16 players who had at least 30 rWAR through at 24.  Manny will probably make 17.  Here are what they did over their next 10 seasons (or in Mike Trout's case, the first 36 games of his next 10 years):

 

                                                                                                                                                                            

	Rk           Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB IBB   SO HBP SH SF GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS        Pos                  Tm

	1    Rogers Hornsby    83.8 1921 1930 25-34 1323 5854 4966 1114 1899 366  96 243 1077     705  393  22       156  62  47 .382 .461 .642 1.103   *4/H3765     STL-NYG-BSN-CHC

	2      Tris Speaker    74.1 1913 1922 25-34 1418 6115 5156  980 1807 410 127  35  746     751  152  51       151 248 101 .350 .438 .500  .938    *8/H139             BOS-CLE

	3           Ty Cobb    73.1 1912 1921 25-34 1288 5637 4872 1007 1846 296 148  45  773     608  289  39       104 465 138 .379 .452 .528  .980 *8/9H31475                 DET

	4    Alex Rodriguez    71.4 2001 2010 25-34 1513 6691 5700 1130 1706 280  16 424 1236 809  78 1220 121  0 61 146 168  36 .299 .394 .577  .971     *56/DH             TEX-NYY

	5     Eddie Mathews    62.8 1957 1966 25-34 1491 6391 5415  955 1466 219  46 303  896 905  57  944  16 20 35  84  40  21 .271 .375 .496  .871     *5/H73             MLN-ATL

	6     Mickey Mantle    62.3 1957 1966 25-34 1305 5316 4283  914 1297 177  28 323  825 996 100  922   6  4 27  74 103  19 .303 .433 .583 1.016     *87/H9                 NYY

	7           Mel Ott    62.1 1934 1943 25-34 1457 6260 5167 1013 1558 253  37 287  984    1002  535  35    51  62      48 .302 .418 .531  .950    *95/H87                 NYG

	8       Jimmie Foxx    60.0 1933 1942 25-34 1403 6136 5140 1109 1662 287  67 353 1215     967  890   8    17  66  58  39 .323 .431 .611 1.043 *3/2H57961         PHA-BOS-CHC

	9      Ted Williams    51.8 1946 1953 27-34  878 3945 3083  751 1055 218  29 210  783     853  258   9     1  77   9   4 .342 .486 .636 1.122       *7/H                 BOS

	10        Al Kaline    48.6 1960 1969 25-34 1322 5473 4730  811 1399 247  31 210  772 652  65  489  25 20 46 122  73  23 .296 .381 .494  .875   *98/H375                 DET

	11     Johnny Bench    43.1 1973 1982 25-34 1266 5111 4461  638 1188 224  10 223  810 579  80  770  11  7 49 113  48  21 .266 .349 .471  .820   *25/3H79                 CIN

	12      Ken Griffey    42.1 1995 2004 25-34 1152 4911 4199  802 1184 206  17 329  901 610 107  846  53  3 46  77  90  25 .282 .376 .574  .951   *8/HD793             SEA-CIN

	13     Arky Vaughan    36.6 1937 1943 25-31  965 4245 3678  629 1126 199  65  38  450     477  131  21    67  40      81 .306 .389 .427  .815    *65/H74             PIT-BRO

	14     Andruw Jones    31.5 2002 2011 25-34 1275 5083 4406  694 1095 222  13 270  790 569  44 1067  63  0 45 134  46  22 .249 .340 .489  .828   *8/D97H3 ATL-LAD-TEX-CHW-NYY

	15      Vada Pinson    23.1 1964 1973 25-34 1446 6078 5646  720 1563 260  70 144  661 310  44  707  37 39 48  95 148  66 .277 .316 .424  .740    *897/H3     CIN-STL-CLE-CAL

	16       Mike Trout     2.8 2017 2017 25-25   36  157  128   27   44  10   2  12   27  23   6   29   4  0  2   3   8   1 .344 .452 .734 1.187       /*8D                 LAA

	

 

The median is 60 wins, and four players were over 70.  Bench was a catcher and was done in his early 30s.  Vaughan basically quit after his age 31 season, so his 37 wins were only in 7 years.

A-Rod with 121 HBP, double the next player in this category, caught my eye. Did he lean into the pitches that much or pitchers just enjoyed plunking him?

[Tbone83]

Last AB in tonight's game seemed to be a case in point as to what the OP was addressing. Need a base hit, swinging for the fences, and missing. 

[Frobby]

And getting screwed by CB Bucknor.

[fansince71]

12 minutes ago, Tbone83 said:

Last AB in tonight's game seemed to be a case in point as to what the OP was addressing. Need a base hit, swinging for the fences, and missing. 

Actually not swinging the bat and getting hosed by the worst umpire to ever wear the uniform.

[bpilktree]

Just because you don't get a hit doesn't mean you are trying to homer.  Wilson throws hard and you got to get swing going.  The first pitch was right down the middle and he took a nice swing on it.   He then fouled one off that was right in his wheelhouse and one you try to drive.  

[ORIOLE33]

I would like to know what Manny's avg has been since September of last year. He has not looked right in a very long time.

[sportsfan8703]

5 hours ago, TheWall said:

The negativity surrounding Manny is hilarious. He's crushing the ball and having bad luck. It'll all even out and he'll have another 6 WAR season.

So much scrutiny by O's fans for Manny.  I wonder if this is what it was like for Eddie?

[Malike]

I can't WAIT til he leaves and someone bumps this thread to show how idiotic it is.

[ORIOLE33]

42 minutes ago, Malike said:

I can't WAIT til he leaves and someone bumps this thread to show how idiotic it is.

Somebody's going to grossly overpay for him. Manny's a VERY good player, but he's not worth the money he's going to demand.

[Cumberbundy]

Mannys hard hit % of 44.1 is well above Trouts, but his 11% LD% is preposterously low. Schoop is hitting the ball about as hard as the mighty trout. 

 

 

[Cumberbundy]

https://twitter.com/BarstoolRDT/status/865031328676405249

 

 

[webbrick2010]

I think the O's should move Manny to leadoff. The Red Sox did it with Betts and he broke out of his funk and has been on a tear ever since moving to leadoff

Manny needs to concentrate on getting on base.

Then drop Trumbum to 8th and move Mancini to 4th

[Beef Supreme]

17 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There have been 16 players who had at least 30 rWAR through at 24.  Manny will probably make 17.  Here are what they did over their next 10 seasons (or in Mike Trout's case, the first 36 games of his next 10 years):

 

                                                                                                                                                                            

	Rk           Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB IBB   SO HBP SH SF GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS        Pos                  Tm

	1    Rogers Hornsby    83.8 1921 1930 25-34 1323 5854 4966 1114 1899 366  96 243 1077     705  393  22       156  62  47 .382 .461 .642 1.103   *4/H3765     STL-NYG-BSN-CHC

	2      Tris Speaker    74.1 1913 1922 25-34 1418 6115 5156  980 1807 410 127  35  746     751  152  51       151 248 101 .350 .438 .500  .938    *8/H139             BOS-CLE

	3           Ty Cobb    73.1 1912 1921 25-34 1288 5637 4872 1007 1846 296 148  45  773     608  289  39       104 465 138 .379 .452 .528  .980 *8/9H31475                 DET

	4    Alex Rodriguez    71.4 2001 2010 25-34 1513 6691 5700 1130 1706 280  16 424 1236 809  78 1220 121  0 61 146 168  36 .299 .394 .577  .971     *56/DH             TEX-NYY

	5     Eddie Mathews    62.8 1957 1966 25-34 1491 6391 5415  955 1466 219  46 303  896 905  57  944  16 20 35  84  40  21 .271 .375 .496  .871     *5/H73             MLN-ATL

	6     Mickey Mantle    62.3 1957 1966 25-34 1305 5316 4283  914 1297 177  28 323  825 996 100  922   6  4 27  74 103  19 .303 .433 .583 1.016     *87/H9                 NYY

	7           Mel Ott    62.1 1934 1943 25-34 1457 6260 5167 1013 1558 253  37 287  984    1002  535  35    51  62      48 .302 .418 .531  .950    *95/H87                 NYG

	8       Jimmie Foxx    60.0 1933 1942 25-34 1403 6136 5140 1109 1662 287  67 353 1215     967  890   8    17  66  58  39 .323 .431 .611 1.043 *3/2H57961         PHA-BOS-CHC

	9      Ted Williams    51.8 1946 1953 27-34  878 3945 3083  751 1055 218  29 210  783     853  258   9     1  77   9   4 .342 .486 .636 1.122       *7/H                 BOS

	10        Al Kaline    48.6 1960 1969 25-34 1322 5473 4730  811 1399 247  31 210  772 652  65  489  25 20 46 122  73  23 .296 .381 .494  .875   *98/H375                 DET

	11     Johnny Bench    43.1 1973 1982 25-34 1266 5111 4461  638 1188 224  10 223  810 579  80  770  11  7 49 113  48  21 .266 .349 .471  .820   *25/3H79                 CIN

	12      Ken Griffey    42.1 1995 2004 25-34 1152 4911 4199  802 1184 206  17 329  901 610 107  846  53  3 46  77  90  25 .282 .376 .574  .951   *8/HD793             SEA-CIN

	13     Arky Vaughan    36.6 1937 1943 25-31  965 4245 3678  629 1126 199  65  38  450     477  131  21    67  40      81 .306 .389 .427  .815    *65/H74             PIT-BRO

	14     Andruw Jones    31.5 2002 2011 25-34 1275 5083 4406  694 1095 222  13 270  790 569  44 1067  63  0 45 134  46  22 .249 .340 .489  .828   *8/D97H3 ATL-LAD-TEX-CHW-NYY

	15      Vada Pinson    23.1 1964 1973 25-34 1446 6078 5646  720 1563 260  70 144  661 310  44  707  37 39 48  95 148  66 .277 .316 .424  .740    *897/H3     CIN-STL-CLE-CAL

	16       Mike Trout     2.8 2017 2017 25-25   36  157  128   27   44  10   2  12   27  23   6   29   4  0  2   3   8   1 .344 .452 .734 1.187       /*8D                 LAA

	

From these calculations, it looks like the quarter-billion A-ROD contract - if signed just prior to that 10-year period - would have been a steal (if you believe $8MM/WAR is the valid measure).