Orioles second worst drafting team in this millenium

[TINSTAAPP]

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Because of the way this works, more recent drafts are under-weighted. Those players just haven’t had as much time to develop and climb up the ladder. But anyway, over more than a decade and a half, the Giants have emerged as the leaders in this category. They’ve drafted and signed 95 players who’ve found their way to the major leagues. The Padres are right there at 93, and then the Cardinals are the only other team over 90. Flipping to the other side, the Mariners and Twins bring up the rear, with 57 such players apiece. The Orioles are at 58, and the Astros are at 59.

The average out of the whole sample is 71, with a standard deviation of 10 players. Much credit goes to those first three teams. But, how did all these big-league players perform? That’s what you probably care about more.

The average: 222 WAR for each team. The standard deviation: 52 WAR. But it’s the Red Sox who are far and away in the lead, at 346 WAR, with a 36-win edge over the second-place Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks shouldn’t hang their heads or anything, and they’re led by Max Scherzer, Paul Goldschmidt, and Brandon Webb, but the Red Sox would be rightfully ecstatic. They’ve drafted and signed 12 players who’ve been worth at least 10 WAR, and they’re led by Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, and Jacoby Ellsbury. Anthony Rizzo and Mookie Betts are climbing on up pretty fast. The Red Sox have identified many of the right players. They might not deserve all the credit, again, since those players then have to be developed, but good luck getting granular in that department.

And then. And then, there are the Mariners. Every Mariners fan already knew this, even if they didn’t *know* this, but the Mariners are again in last place, with a combined WAR of 140. Now, that’s close to the Orioles, who have also sucked. They’re down there at 146. But, well, it’s a funny coincidence that the Orioles are next to the Mariners, because the Mariners’ WAR leader out of these players is Adam Jones. Chris Tillman‘s in fourth. The Mariners have drafted and signed four players worth at least 10 WAR, and only Kyle Seager has stuck around. (Doug Fister was traded away in his second full season.)

The Orioles have drafted six 10+ WAR players, topped by Nick Markakis and Manny Machado. Their own sob story, of course, is Jake Arrieta. The Indians have drafted just five 10+ WAR players, and one of them is Chris Archer. If I can be totally honest with you, I knew about Archer being traded by the Cubs, but I didn’t know he’d been traded by the Indians. Good pick, at least. Has a good head on his shoulders.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-teams-have-drafted-in-this-millennium/

[Roll Tide]

This comes as no surprise. They drafted one star position player between Ripken and ------------.

hell I don't even know who to write in the box. Wieters ? Even he fell short of expectations and they have drafted a ace from Mussina until Bedard. With many complete busts despite high draft choices.

[Frobby]

I did a thread a few months ago where I totaled up the players who had produced 1+ rWAR drafted by every team in the AL East since 2000 and listed all those players, that reached the same result as this article.   So, if you want some details about the players drafted in that time period, you can find them here (you have to read both pages of the thread):  http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/26963-ranking-the-best-orioles-draft-picks-of-the-21st-century/#comment-2054459

 

 

I do think there are two major caveats.    First, the time period misses by one year the most productive draft we had the last 30 years (by career rWAR).  The 1999 draft yielded Brian Roberts, Erik Bedard and others.   So adjusting this by one year would make us look a lot better.    

The second thing is that we've done a better job in this decade, but the players we've drafted since then (Machado, Bundy, Gausman, etc.) have only played a fraction of their careers, so they aren't weighted as heavily as the players drafted by other teams in the 2000's who have been playing a decade or more already.  

Still, while those are ameliorating factors, there's no denying that overall we've been pretty terrible at drafting since 2000.