What could you get for Brach?

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

You have 117 posts in 13 years and chose to use one of them to try to ridicule me - quoting the same comment twice.  That's special of you.            

Rebuilding is going to bring out a lot of people that are Nats and O's fans.  Which isn't possible.  Not if you're a real fan.  

Back to the OP, I think we undervalue Brach.  In fact we've been spoiled by having a dominant bullpen for so long.  In the 2014 playoffs we had a bullpen of Britton, O'day, Miller, Brach, Gausman, Matusz.  With Matusz and O'day being above average.  

For Brach, I'd want a top 50-75 SP that is in  AAA/AA back.   

[maybenxtyr]

16 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

You have 117 posts in 13 years and chose to use one of them to try to ridicule me - quoting the same comment twice.  That's special of you.            

I thought it was invigorating conversation from him. 

[Ruzious]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Rebuilding is going to bring out a lot of people that are Nats and O's fans.  Which isn't possible.  Not if you're a real fan.  

Back to the OP, I think we undervalue Brach.  In fact we've been spoiled by having a dominant bullpen for so long.  In the 2014 playoffs we had a bullpen of Britton, O'day, Miller, Brach, Gausman, Matusz.  With Matusz and O'day being above average.  

For Brach, I'd want a top 50-75 SP that is in  AAA/AA back.   

Right, the strength of the O's over the last few years was their bullpen, and while Britton's been the key guy, Brach, O'Day, and others have been vital parts.  Brach has turned into a valuable player.    

[sportsfan8703]

Just now, Ruzious said:

Right, the strength of the O's over the last few years was their bullpen, and while Britton's been the key guy, Brach, O'Day, and others have been vital parts.  Brach has turned into a valuable player.    

Britton gets to start innings clean.  Brach comes in a lot with guys on base in the 7th and 8th innings.  He was our firestopper.  Now the bullpen is a non factor because we can't get to them in a high leverage situation.  

We've outplayed the projections and pythag for years.  Our pythag says we should be 28-37 right now.  We squeez wins out of the pen.  Everyone knows it.  That's why we just aren't going to give Brach away.  

[Frobby]

Would you say Brach was worth more than Koji Uehara was worth in 2011?    More than George Sherrill was worth in 2009?

As a refresher, Koji had a 1.72 ERA when we traded him, and a combined 2.56 ERA as a reliever in 2010-11.   He had 1.3 seasons remaining on his contract.      We got Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis for him.     At the time, Hunter was a back of rotation starter/middle reliever, and Davis was a former top prospect (BA no. 65 in 2008) who was having trouble sticking in the majors.

When we traded Sherrill, he was carrying a 2.40 ERA and was in his second year as our closer.    He had 1.3 seasons under team control remaining.    He brought back a 3B prospect, Josh Bell (not the one now on the Pirates) and Steve Johnson.    Bell had been BA's no. 37 prospect going into the 2010 season.

Putting aside 20/20 hindsight, I'd say we got a slightly higher return for Koji than for Sherrill.     Personally, I'd say Brach's value is between the two.    

[weams]

On 6/15/2017 at 2:55 PM, POR said:

LOL

 

LOL

LOL

[bpilktree]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Would you say Brach was worth more than Koji Uehara was worth in 2011?    More than George Sherrill was worth in 2009?

As a refresher, Koji had a 1.72 ERA when we traded him, and a combined 2.56 ERA as a reliever in 2010-11.   He had 1.3 seasons remaining on his contract.      We got Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis for him.     At the time, Hunter was a back of rotation starter/middle reliever, and Davis was a former top prospect (BA no. 65 in 2008) who was having trouble sticking in the majors.

When we traded Sherrill, he was carrying a 2.40 ERA and was in his second year as our closer.    He had 1.3 seasons under team control remaining.    He brought back a 3B prospect, Josh Bell (not the one now on the Pirates) and Steve Johnson.    Bell had been BA's no. 37 prospect going into the 2010 season.

Putting aside 20/20 hindsight, I'd say we got a slightly higher return for Koji than for Sherrill.     Personally, I'd say Brach's value is between the two.    

I think the RP value has changed a lot.  Miller did not get you a 50 guy and 80 guy.  Frazier was ranked 15th at end of year and Sheffield 75.  Miller is clearly better but higher price tag.  Brach should get you a top 50 guy and another guy around 100.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

I think the RP value has changed a lot.  Miller did not get you a 50 guy and 80 guy.  Frazier was ranked 15th at end of year and Sheffield 75.  Miller is clearly better but higher price tag.  Brach should get you a top 50 guy and another guy around 100.

I don't think Brach gets you that much.     A top 50 guy, maybe, but the second piece is going to be more fringy than top 100.    

[sportsfan8703]

Trade him to the Brewers for Josh Hader. 

[Lucky_13]

I think it also depends on how the market plays out. Other then the royals the Orioles might have the best arms available if they put Brach and Britton on the block. 

[sportsfan8703]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Would you say Brach was worth more than Koji Uehara was worth in 2011?    More than George Sherrill was worth in 2009?

As a refresher, Koji had a 1.72 ERA when we traded him, and a combined 2.56 ERA as a reliever in 2010-11.   He had 1.3 seasons remaining on his contract.      We got Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis for him.     At the time, Hunter was a back of rotation starter/middle reliever, and Davis was a former top prospect (BA no. 65 in 2008) who was having trouble sticking in the majors.

When we traded Sherrill, he was carrying a 2.40 ERA and was in his second year as our closer.    He had 1.3 seasons under team control remaining.    He brought back a 3B prospect, Josh Bell (not the one now on the Pirates) and Steve Johnson.    Bell had been BA's no. 37 prospect going into the 2010 season.

Putting aside 20/20 hindsight, I'd say we got a slightly higher return for Koji than for Sherrill.     Personally, I'd say Brach's value is between the two.    

Really thoughtful post.  Rep to you.  This illustrates just how trading proven MLBers for prospects and uproven guys is a crap shoot.  It's just playing the lotto.  Unfortunately for us, we don't already have a lot of lottery tickets here to combine with the ones we'd get in a trade.  

[ChuckS]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don't think Brach gets you that much.     A top 50 guy, maybe, but the second piece is going to be more fringy than top 100.    

Which in our system could end up being our no. 1 prospect.  Second piece could still be a top ten guy (in our system). 

[sportsfan8703]

The entire AL is in the race minus Oakland.  The NL is a little bit more thinned out.  KC having a fire sale would flood the market.  We wouldn't trade with a divsion team and probably not the Nats.  So realisitically you're looking at Mil, Col, Ariz, LAD and the AL teams in the central and west.   

Just to throw some names and teams out there of potential fits,

Brewers- Josh Hader, LHP #33 MLB/AAA; Luiz Ortiz RHP # 53 AA

Colorado- Riley Pint #43 RHP A

Arizona- No top 100 prospects

LAD - Yadier Alvarez # 41 RHP A+; Walker Buehler RHP # 81 AA

Minn- Stephen Gonsalves #80 LHP AA 

Tex- Yohander Mendez # 48 LHP AA; 

This is who is in the race and their best SP prospects.  I don't know if we would trade within the division.  Imagine if we could get Hader back.  We would have essentially just loaned his MILB time to another org., won a bit with Norris, then get him right back when we start to rebuild.  Brach only costed us Devin Jones.  I'd say that would work out nicely.  

[bpilktree]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Trade him to the Brewers for Josh Hader. 

Brewers just called up Hader not sure why maybe to show off for trade as he has been bad this year at AAA.  Lots of walks there and 4 in 3 innings.

 

[Lucky_13]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The entire AL is in the race minus Oakland.  The NL is a little bit more thinned out.  KC having a fire sale would flood the market.  We wouldn't trade with a divsion team and probably not the Nats.  So realisitically you're looking at Mil, Col, Ariz, LAD and the AL teams in the central and west.   

Just to throw some names and teams out there of potential fits,

Brewers- Josh Hader, LHP #33 MLB/AAA; Luiz Ortiz RHP # 53 AA

Colorado- Riley Pint #43 RHP A

Arizona- No top 100 prospects

LAD - Yadier Alvarez # 41 RHP A+; Walker Buehler RHP # 81 AA

Minn- Stephen Gonsalves #80 LHP AA 

Tex- Yohander Mendez # 48 LHP AA; 

This is who is in the race and their best SP prospects.  I don't know if we would trade within the division.  

I think it would be a mistake to not even consider the Nats. They have 4 top 100 prospects and a talented system. I think at that point you swallow your pride and do what's best for the future of the franchise.