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You be the GM!

Lucky_13

By Lucky_13
in Orioles Talk

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Go_Os Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Go_Os

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On 6/24/2017 at 2:16 PM, Lucky_13 said:

Let's hear everyone's plans if they were the GM. Are you going to start the firesale? Retool? Or are you going to go all in and buy a player at the deadline?

Here's mine. I threw it together quickly so feel free to tell me how terrible it is. 

Pitchers:

Wade Miley to Indians for LHP Ryan Merritt  

Major league ready, finesse lefty. Honestly could be overrating Miley but Merritt seems to have similar value to Miranda and the Indians need an innings eater. #22 prospect for the Indians.

Brad Brach to Twins for OF Robbie Grossman and RHP Felix Jorge  

I’m struggling to gauge Brach’s value at this point. Jorge is a command and control pitcher with a fastball that can touch the mid 90’s and improving off speed stuff. His ETA is next season and he projects as a 3-5 starting pitcher. The Orioles could call him up after the deadline to see what he has. Robbie Grossman had a breakout year last year but is blocked from playing time a bit this year. He seems best suited as a platoon guy against righties.  

Zach Britton to Nationals for RHP Erick Fedde, SS Carter Kieboom, LHP Tyler Watson, INF Stephen Drew

So this all assumes that Zach Britton comes back healthy and dominant. I used the Andrew Miller deal as a template and also took into consideration that the Nats would have Britton for an extra year. Fedde and Kieboom were in similar position in BA top 100 as the first two prospects that the Yankees got last year. Fedde is close to major league ready and the Orioles could theoretically call him up if they wanted to. Kieboom can play all over the infield apparently but is farther from the majors. Could be SS or 3B of the future. Drew is a throw in to play SS until Hardy is back an then becomes the utility infielder.

Infielders/Outfielders

Manny Machado to Boston Red Sox for 3B Rafael Devers, LHP Jay Groome, RHP Chandler Shepherd, Util Brock Holt if healthy by July 31st.

Yeah, it would suck to help the Red Sox win another World Series. But having a player like Manny Machado on their team gives them a really good infield and it could be too good for Boston to pass up. Plus, with them in the Division we could up the asking price a bit. 

Wellington Castillo and Seth Smith to Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Taylor Guerrieri, OF Shane Peterson and 3B Trevor Plouffe

The Rays need a catcher after they designated Derek Norris for assignment. Guerrieri has struggled with injuries since being drafted but has really come on as late. He was recently promoted to AAA and is close to MLB ready. He is the Rays’ #22 prospect. Plouffe crushes lefties and could form a platoon with Drew Dosch to play 3rd with Manny gone. Smith gives them an upgrade in left.

Hyun Soo Kim to some National league team for whatever you can get.

25 Man with Davis and Hardy on DL 

1B: Trey Mancini 
2B: Jonathan Schoop 
SS: Stephen Drew  
3B: Drew Dosch 
C: Caleb Joseph

LF: Shane Peterson 
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Robbie Grossman  

DH: Mark Trumbo 

Bench 
C Francisco Pena
OF Joey Rickard
3B Trevor Plouffe 
OF/INF Brock Holt 


Rotation
RHP Dylan Bundy 
RHP Kevin Gausmen 
LHP Ryan Merritt  
RHP Felix Jorge  
RHP Chris Tillman

Bullpen 

RHP Mychal Givens
RHP Taylor Guerrieri
RHP Darren O’Day
LHP Richard Bleir 
RHP Alec Asher 
RHP Miguel Castro 
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez 
 

So things look a bit ugly. But the outfield defense improves and hey the rotation doesn't seem like a dumpster fire of despair. And the farm is restocked with some potential impact prospects. And Brock Holt is a great get. 

I wouldn't get locked in on any specific trade.  The best idea, in my opinion, is to put feelers out on Machado, Jones, Castillo, Brach and really any player that might be expensive or in decline in the next 1-2 years.  You just never know what you will get in return for these players until you shop them.  Ideally, we rebuild with a solid core of youth and with that savings do whatever it takes to keep Machado.  However, if you feel that Manny wants to go elsewhere you need to trade him as soon as possible to get the maximum return.  Unfortunately, the two contenders who need help at 3B the most are the Red Sox and Yankees, and the thought of Manny staying in the AL East is sickening.  The Nats, Cubs, Dodgers, Tampa, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Houston are set at 3B.

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Tryptamine Major Leaguer Rising Star

Tryptamine

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13 hours ago, weams said:

It's not a year. It's for two postseason runs and post seasons.  That's fact. Also, show me where a top three player in the league was traded with two postseasons to go and the ability to collect a pick when his contract is up? That is not drunk or has threatened suicide and a police officer. 

That's a bit much. For 2017 he's #56 in fWAR for position players. For 2016+2017 he's the #12 position player and for 2015-2017 he's #8. I like Manny, I know he has an elite ceiling, but you have to come to terms with the fact that since June 1st 2016 he has put up a very pedestrian line of .262/.312/.477 good for a wRC+ of 105. That is not a small sample size, that is 773PAs. With that said he's still going to bring a pretty massive haul based on what he did in the past and what he could do again, but you need to be realistic. This is not Miggy Cabrera being moved. When he moved he was coming off a year posting .320/.401/.565 or 142wRC+.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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24 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That's a bit much. For 2017 he's #56 in fWAR for position players. For 2016+2017 he's the #12 position player and for 2015-2017 he's #8. I like Manny, I know he has an elite ceiling, but you have to come to terms with the fact that since June 1st 2016 he has put up a very pedestrian line of .262/.312/.477 good for a wRC+ of 105. That is not a small sample size, that is 773PAs. With that said he's still going to bring a pretty massive haul based on what he did in the past and what he could do again, but you need to be realistic. This is not Miggy Cabrera being moved. When he moved he was coming off a year posting .320/.401/.565 or 142wRC+.

You forget the defense. He is the best 3B in MLB.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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6 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

That's a bit much. For 2017 he's #56 in fWAR for position players. For 2016+2017 he's the #12 position player and for 2015-2017 he's #8. I like Manny, I know he has an elite ceiling, but you have to come to terms with the fact that since June 1st 2016 he has put up a very pedestrian line of .262/.312/.477 good for a wRC+ of 105. That is not a small sample size, that is 773PAs. With that said he's still going to bring a pretty massive haul based on what he did in the past and what he could do again, but you need to be realistic. This is not Miggy Cabrera being moved. When he moved he was coming off a year posting .320/.401/.565 or 142wRC+.

I think calling Manny a top 3 player in the league is a bit of an overstatement.    Still, I don't get too caught up in the "what he's done since June 1, 2016" mentality.    Manny has an .886 OPS going in June, and to me has looked much better at the plate lately, though he hasn't been truly hot for any lengthy spell this season.    I believe it will come.   Meanwhile, he's playing great defense and his overall value has still been pretty good despite some down offensive numbers.    

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bobmc Hangout Grand Counsel

bobmc

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44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think calling Manny a top 3 player in the league is a bit of an overstatement.    Still, I don't get too caught up in the "what he's done since June 1, 2016" mentality.    Manny has an .886 OPS going in June, and to me has looked much better at the plate lately, though he hasn't been truly hot for any lengthy spell this season.    I believe it will come.   Meanwhile, he's playing great defense and his overall value has still been pretty good despite some down offensive numbers.    

Always appreciate the stabilizing, settling vibe brought here by one of the OH "superstars" (well IMO).  :clap:

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brooksfrankjim Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

brooksfrankjim

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Here is my plan. First, get younger. I'd be very tempted to plan on Mullins and Sisco as starters next year and bring them up sooner rather than later.  I'd also move Mountcastle to Bowie and see how he handles the bat. He is arguably the most advanced young hitter we have had since Manny.  Second, I pay and keep Manny and Schoop. If you look at the Astros they went and got some good vets. Well we have some good vets to combine with these younger guys. 

The biggest hole is starting pitching. I can't stand Gausman but I'd go another year with him and see if he finally gets it. With a healthy bullpen we can win a lot of games if we just get 5 or 6 decent innings out of this group.  Work hard so Castro and Scott can be full time pieces next year. 

Find 3 starters for next year. 

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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2 hours ago, weams said:

Where might you find them?

2017-18 FA: 

Brett Anderson (30)
Jake Arrieta (32)
Clay Buchholz (33)
Madison Bumgarner (28) — $12MM club option with a $1.5M buyout
Trevor Cahill (30)
Matt Cain (33) — $21MM club option with a $7.5MM buyout
Andrew Cashner (31)
Jhoulys Chacin (30)
Tyler Chatwood (28)
Jesse Chavez (34)
Wei-Yin Chen (32) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $52MM on his contract
Alex Cobb (30)
Bartolo Colon (45)
Johnny Cueto (32) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $84MM on his contract
Yu Darvish (31)
John Danks (33)
Jorge De La Rosa (37)
R.A. Dickey (43) — $8MM club option with $500K buyout
Nathan Eovaldi (28) — $TBD club option
Marco Estrada (34)
Scott Feldman (35)
Doug Fister (34)
Yovani Gallardo (32) — $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jaime Garcia (31)
Matt Garza (34) — $13MM vesting option/$5MM club option (can become $1MM club option based on DL time)
Gio Gonzalez (32) – $12MM club option, vests with 180 innings pitched in 2017
Miguel Gonzalez (34)
Jeremy Hellickson (31)
Derek Holland (31)
Ubaldo Jimenez (34)
Ian Kennedy (33) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $43MM on his contract
John Lackey (39)
Francisco Liriano (34)
Jordan Lyles (27)
Lance Lynn (31)
Wade Miley (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Mike Minor (30) — $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout
Matt Moore (29) — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jon Niese (31)
Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Martin Perez (27) — $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
Michael Pineda (29)
Clayton Richard (34)
Tyson Ross (31)
CC Sabathia (37)
Anibal Sanchez (34) — $16MM club option with a $5MM buyout
Hector Santiago (30)
Chris Sale (29) — $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Masahiro Tanaka (29) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $67MM on his contract
Chris Tillman (30)
Josh Tomlin (33) — $3MM club option with a $750K buyout
Jason Vargas (35)
Jered Weaver (35)
Chris Young (39) — $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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On 6/25/2017 at 9:30 AM, weams said:

It's not a year. It's for two postseason runs and post seasons.  That's fact. Also, show me where a top three player in the league was traded with two postseasons to go and the ability to collect a pick when his contract is up? That is not drunk or has threatened suicide and a police officer. 

Josh Donaldson got traded with I believe 4 seasons left before free agency.  The main pieces coming back were Brett Lawrie and Kendall Graveman.  I believe Graveman was a top pitching prospect at the time.  That's the kind of trade that gets a GM fired, unless you're a "genius". 

Donaldson was only 8th in MVP voting, but whether he was considered top 3 is questionable.  Top 10 is reasonable.  Its debatable whether a lot of teams would consider Manny a top 3 talent after how he's played this year.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Josh Donaldson got traded with I believe 4 seasons left before free agency.  The main pieces coming back were Brett Lawrie and Kendall Graveman.  I believe Graveman was a top pitching prospect at the time.  That's the kind of trade that gets a GM fired, unless you're a "genius". 

Donaldson was only 8th in MVP voting, but whether he was considered top 3 is questionable.  Top 10 is reasonable.  Its debatable whether a lot of teams would consider Manny a top 3 talent after how he's played this year.

Absolutely, He was not top three. Wasn't  Franklin Barreto a piece too?

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