Orioles' First-Half Recap: Five Things That Went Wrong

[PressBoxOnline]

While it's easy to point to starting pitching, Rich Dubroff takes a look at five things that went wrong for the Baltimore Orioles during the season's first half.

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/07/10/orioles-first-half-recap-five-things-that-went-wrong
 

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, PressBoxOnline said:

While it's easy to point to starting pitching, Rich Dubroff takes a look at five things that went wrong for the Baltimore Orioles during the season's first half.

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/07/10/orioles-first-half-recap-five-things-that-went-wrong
 

You have plenty more to look at than just batting average to be unimpressed with Hardy's 2017 performance.

Davis was rather unimpressive as well when he was playing.

[sportsfan8703]

1.  Manny

2.  Gausman

3.  Britton injury

4.  Tillman

5.  Trumbo, Davis and Kim

[spiritof66]

I do think the team has missed Hardy. While I've certainly been critical of his declining offense, and at times amazed by Buck's refusal to PH for him, I do think he's a stabilizing influence out there. I'm not big on the contribution of intangibles to winning games, but it was my experience in team sports that there were certain guys whose presence on the field/court made you more confident, and inspired you to work harder and not do anything stupid. I think Hardy and Jones have been the Orioles' guys like that.

And other than Janish's defense and being more frequently pinch hit for, the guys who have filled in have pretty awful, although Tejada has been a more productive hitter lately.. 

[LookitsPuck]

Top 5 in order:

1. Gausman huge regression

2. Ubaldo worse than normal (which is bad)

3. Tillman pitching injured and ineffective

4. Miley regression like woah

5. Britton injury

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I do think the team has missed Hardy. While I've certainly been critical of his declining offense, and at times amazed by Buck's refusal to PH for him, I do think he's a stabilizing influence out there. I'm not big on the contribution of intangibles to winning games, but it was my experience in team sports that there were certain guys whose presence on the field/court made you more confident, and inspired you to work harder and not do anything stupid. I think Hardy and Jones have been the Orioles' guys like that.

And other than Janish's defense and being more frequently pinch hit for, the guys who have filled in have pretty awful, although Tejada has been a more productive hitter lately.. 

They have problems if a guy in his 10th year, a guy in his sixth year and a guy in his fifth year need a stabilizing influence.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Top 5 in order:

1. Gausman huge regression

2. Ubaldo worse than normal (which is bad)

3. Tillman pitching injured and ineffective

4. Miley regression like woah

5. Britton injury

I'd put Jones, Davis, Trumbo and Machado under-performing ahead of Britton.

[Sanfran327]

This season really took a turn after the Friday night game in NY when we blew an enormous lead and our bullpen, which had still been very good even without Britton, really let us down. It started happening more routinely after that, because the starters were burning out the bullpen arms even earlier in the season than normal. Gausman, Miley, Tillman, and Jimenez really gutted them. 

I still see a major run in this team, but if it doesn't happen soon, it won't matter. Plenty of teams go from bubble to contender in July and August. This could be one of those teams - the talent is there. 

[LookitsPuck]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd put Jones, Davis, Trumbo and Machado under-performing ahead of Britton.

 

I was really just going with single names. Not having Britton for essentially 2 months and then showing the clear lack of impact relief depth in the organization as well as putting more usage on top 3 (Givens, Brach, O'Day) really screwed the pooch on quite a few games. It'd be different if they had any meaningful depth...but look at the sheer number of moves this year relative to last year. It was almost entirely because nobody really stepped up. 

That said, I don't think the guys you mentioned (aside from Machado) have underperformed too off the mark of their last 3 years. Unless you're expecting Trumbo to repeat an obvious outlier/career year. It seems that Jones, Trumbo and Davis are all within 30-50 points of their last 3 years. 

Machado is the biggest problem offensively. A 100 drop in OPS is pretty damn large...and his defense has taken a hit this year, too. So I could see an argument to swap Machado w/ Britton. But the other 3 I'm not too perturbed at considering their age and last 3 years.

• Jones 2017: .267/.305/.436 - .741 OPS
• Jones Last 3: .272/.310/.459 - .769 OPS
• Trumbo 2017: .254/.316/.422 - .738 OPS
• Trumbo Last 3: .253/.309/.477 - .786 OPS
• Davis 2017: .226/.320/.461 - .781 OPS
• Davis Last 3: .228/.334/.481 - .814 OPS
• Machado 2017: .230/.296/.445 - .741 OPS 
• Machado Last 3: .288/.346/.500 - .846 OPS

[Can_of_corn]

31 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

 

I was really just going with single names. Not having Britton for essentially 2 months and then showing the clear lack of impact relief depth in the organization as well as putting more usage on top 3 (Givens, Brach, O'Day) really screwed the pooch on quite a few games. It'd be different if they had any meaningful depth...but look at the sheer number of moves this year relative to last year. It was almost entirely because nobody really stepped up. 

That said, I don't think the guys you mentioned (aside from Machado) have underperformed too off the mark of their last 3 years. Unless you're expecting Trumbo to repeat an obvious outlier/career year. It seems that Jones, Trumbo and Davis are all within 30-50 points of their last 3 years. 

Machado is the biggest problem offensively. A 100 drop in OPS is pretty damn large...and his defense has taken a hit this year, too. So I could see an argument to swap Machado w/ Britton. But the other 3 I'm not too perturbed at considering their age and last 3 years.

• Jones 2017: .267/.305/.436 - .741 OPS
• Jones Last 3: .272/.310/.459 - .769 OPS
• Trumbo 2017: .254/.316/.422 - .738 OPS
• Trumbo Last 3: .253/.309/.477 - .786 OPS
• Davis 2017: .226/.320/.461 - .781 OPS
• Davis Last 3: .228/.334/.481 - .814 OPS
• Machado 2017: .230/.296/.445 - .741 OPS 
• Machado Last 3: .288/.346/.500 - .846 OPS

I think that if Britton is out and O'Day is healthy the overall impact isn't that significant.  The impact of Britton's injury has been magnified by O'Day's issues.  You should be able to go into games with a healthy Brach, O'Day and Givens and feel pretty good about things.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if Britton is out and O'Day is healthy the overall impact isn't that significant.  The impact of Britton's injury has been magnified by O'Day's issues.  You should be able to go into games with a healthy Brach, O'Day and Givens and feel pretty good about things.

You would if you had a rotation that could go 6 innings regularly.  It's bad when you feel good that an Orioles starter made it through 5 full innings.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

You would if you had a rotation that could go 6 innings regularly.  It's bad when you feel good that an Orioles starter made it through 5 full innings.  

I only want them to go five.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if Britton is out and O'Day is healthy the overall impact isn't that significant.  The impact of Britton's injury has been magnified by O'Day's issues.  You should be able to go into games with a healthy Brach, O'Day and Givens and feel pretty good about things.

Probably fair.    Meanwhile, the bullpen has been reasonably effective, as evidenced by its 17-10 record, +2.86 WPA (7th in MLB), and 71% save percentage (tied for 4th in the AL).     That compares to last year's 32-15, 10.22 WPA (1st in MLB) and 79% save percentage (1st in AL).    So, a lesser performance to be sure, but still well above average.    

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

They have problems if a guy in his 10th year, a guy in his sixth year and a guy in his fifth year need a stabilizing influence.

Maybe so. But Manny and Jonathan aren't exactly veterans, and you left out Mancini.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, spiritof66 said:

Maybe do. But Manny and Jonathan aren't exactly veterans, and you left out Mancini.

I also left out the backup middle infielders.  How many games have the O's had Hardy at SS and Mancini at first?  Can't miss what you never had.

I went with the established starters at each position.

In my accounting anyone that has reached arbitration counts as a vet.