Why Wouldn't This Trade Deadline Plan Work

[Brendan25]

So I know that every single person has a different perspective about the trade deadline. Do we stay pat with what we have and pray that we resign Manny and keep trying to compete? Do we have a firesale and trade everybody? My question is why cant we be sellers at the trade deadline, but still keep a core together that is ready to hopefully compete next year?

 

The first question that needs to be answered is can we resign Manny? If the question is no then he needs to be traded. If the answer is yes or maybe, then chances are Adam Jones will most likely not be signing an extension with Manny, so here's my idea.

 

Trade

Manny Machado or Adam Jones - If Manny will not be signing an extension you trade Manny and try to lock up Jones to an extension. If you think you can resign Manny, I'm trading Jones for prospects)

Wellington Castillo - May be the best catcher on the trade market at the deadline, should be able to get a really good haul for him.

Seth Smith - He's a free agent after this year, just get what you can for him. A guy with a 105 OPS+, a .316 OBP, and 14 HR's will probably be valued more then we think.

Zach Britton - I just have a hard time believing that the O's are going to pony up what it's going to take to resign him. If they think they are then I'm keeping him, I'm trading him because I don't think they're resigning him, and we could get a really good haul for him. If he comes out the first 2 weeks after the all-star break and looks normal, noone will even think about the injury I don't think.

Darren O'Day - We have to trade some of our relievers to stock up the farm system, which means that in addition to Britton, I think that either O'Day or Brach needs to go also. If there is anything that this team has been CONSISTENTLY good at over the years, it's finding relievers. O'Day off the scrap heap, Brach off the scrap heap, Givens a converted infielder, I think Miguel Castro could be the real deal. Trade 2 of your relievers and stock up that farm.

 

 

Next Years Core

Joey Rickard

Adam Jones or Manny Machado

Jonathon Schoop

Chris Davis

Mark Trumbo

Trey Mancini

Dylan Bundy

Kevin Gausman

Chris Tillman (I think he resigns on a prove it deal)

Brad Brach

Mychal Givens

Miguel Castro

 

 

That core, if they play to their standards (which most of them aren't this year) with a couple additions around them could still compete next year, I think. If Bundy, Gausman, and Tillman pitch like we all expected them to this year, if Davis and Trumbo play a little more to how they're supposed to play, and if we add just a little bit around them. 

 

I think that we can restock the minor league cupboard by trading those players, without having to hit the reset button for the next 5 years.......

[bpilktree]

I have no interest in resigning Jones.  He will be 32 in a month then another year before he becomes a free agent.  So I don't want to resign a guy that will be 33 to start the contract.  So if he gets a 4 year deal that goes into his 37 year and he is already in a decline.  Couple that with what I think the best part of our farm is the outfield and I would let him walk at the end or try to move him either at the end of year or next deadline.  Schoop is the guy you want to resign if you don't get Manny.

[Brendan25]

Just now, bpilktree said:

I have no interest in resigning Jones.  He will be 32 in a month then another year before he becomes a free agent.  So I don't want to resign a guy that will be 33 to start the contract.  So if he gets a 4 year deal that goes into his 37 year and he is already in a decline.  Couple that with what I think the best part of our farm is the outfield and I would let him walk at the end or try to move him either at the end of year or next deadline.  Schoop is the guy you want to resign if you don't get Manny.

I'm fine with that but Jones doesn't necessarily need to be traded at the deadline. He could be traded next year. I do think that to start filing up the cupboard quickly that either him OR Manny should be traded at this years deadline.

[vab]

I think you have to trade Machado and Jones. Machado has to go regardless of whether he can be re-signed because his trade value is so high and this organization needs so much help with pitching. There are too many good OF prospects already in the organization to bring Jones back and he's pretty clearly on the down side of his career at this point with nagging injuries piling up. Those resources need to go elsewhere. Castillo and Smith are easy calls to move and they should definitely try to move O'Day to the Nationals who almost got him in free agency. They could be just a couple of good relievers away from a World Series appearance so his value could be a bit higher than normal for them. The Orioles would also get that contract off the books which it looks like his shoulder won't last through anyway.

[backwardsk]

53 minutes ago, Brendan25 said:

I'm fine with that but Jones doesn't necessarily need to be traded at the deadline. He could be traded next year. I do think that to start filing up the cupboard quickly that either him OR Manny should be traded at this years deadline.

Jones can veto a trade next year.

[Il BuonO]

It's a mistake to sign Jones to an extension when he's already in decline. The focus needs to be on trading Machado and Britton not Jones. Trading Jones to a contender seems to make more sense for him than trading him to the Padres. I would think a shot at winning a championship is more important to him than playing for his home town team.

I see no indication any of this will happen.

[DirtyBird]

Not sure why the "or" situation would be between Jones and Machado. They are really nothing alike when it comes to contract situation and trade value.

The only possibly "either/or" situation would be Schoop/Machado.

[sportsfan8703]

The farm system isn't as empty at you think. We just don't have one specific thing. That being 3 SP prospects in AAA to save the MLB rotation. Kind of a hard standard to live up to. 

[Luke-OH]

29 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The farm system isn't as empty at you think. We just don't have one specific thing. That being 3 SP prospects in AAA to save the MLB rotation. Kind of a hard standard to live up to. 

I'll agree that the farm system will surprise some people, and I'd expect it to be ranked in the middle of the pack come season's end.

I do have to add though, it's not just SP prospects in AAA, the SP prospects in AA are fringe guys, I'd be happy if one of Means, Hess, or Barker made any contributions in the majors.  Scott and Long are legit guys, but currently they profile as relievers and would have to take significant steps to profile as starters (Scott especially).

[Ruzious]

I think there's a lot of things wrong with the OP - particularly with the conceptions on trade values and on what the core is.

Adam Jones at this point in his career and at his salary just isn't going to get you much.

The O's got Castillo relatively cheaply when anyone else could have gotten him - and he's doing only okay.  So, I don't see him having much trade value - might as well keep him.  

O'Day at his age and not having a great season isn't gonna get you much - might as well keep him.  

Seth Smith - why would anyone give up much for a rental like him?

When you start out the list of next year's core with Rickard, you lose me.  He's a decent backup but not a core guy.  

There are 2 key decisions, imo.  One is whether or not to trade Machado.  The other is whether or not to trade Britton.  If there's a third, it's whether or not to trade Brach.  

 

 

[Finisher]

Extending Jones is such a blatantly bad idea but that's exactly the type of thing we've been doing lately.

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I think there's a lot of things wrong with the OP - particularly with the conceptions on trade values and on what the core is.

Adam Jones at this point in his career and at his salary just isn't going to get you much.

The O's got Castillo relatively cheaply when anyone else could have gotten him - and he's doing only okay.  So, I don't see him having much trade value - might as well keep him.  

O'Day at his age and not having a great season isn't gonna get you much - might as well keep him.  

Seth Smith - why would anyone give up much for a rental like him?

When you start out the list of next year's core with Rickard, you lose me.  He's a decent backup but not a core guy.  

There are 2 key decisions, imo.  One is whether or not to trade Machado.  The other is whether or not to trade Britton.  If there's a third, it's whether or not to trade Brach.  

 

 

I think we should trade Castillo for whatever we can get for him, just because I don't want him taking his option for next season.

[Camden_yardbird]

11 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I think there's a lot of things wrong with the OP - particularly with the conceptions on trade values and on what the core is.

Adam Jones at this point in his career and at his salary just isn't going to get you much.

The O's got Castillo relatively cheaply when anyone else could have gotten him - and he's doing only okay.  So, I don't see him having much trade value - might as well keep him.  

O'Day at his age and not having a great season isn't gonna get you much - might as well keep him.  

Seth Smith - why would anyone give up much for a rental like him?

When you start out the list of next year's core with Rickard, you lose me.  He's a decent backup but not a core guy.  

There are 2 key decisions, imo.  One is whether or not to trade Machado.  The other is whether or not to trade Britton.  If there's a third, it's whether or not to trade Brach.  

 

 

I think you underrate the trade value of some players.  Not every team has or want to give up what it takes to get a J.D. Martinez.  Some teams want Seth Smith.  He's a professional hitter who will cost something like a top 12-18 prospect.

Castillo's value is built up in circumstance.  If a team loses their starter (anyone see Perez take one off the throwing hand in the ASG) then he has value.

You are right about O'Day, he has been a mid 3 ERA reliever for two years and they owe him $9 per for two more years.

You are right about the core of this team too.  You watch the all star game and see Arizona with guys like Lamb, Goldschmidt, Pollock, or Houston with Altuve, Cortes, Reddick, Keuchel, or Washington and you wonder how anyone can look at the Orioles roster and objectively think "yea, we got this."  Now most people, Duq included will tell you that the Orioles don't have to compete with them.  They have to compete with an anemic offense in Boston, a load of over producers in N.Y., and a flawed Tampa team.  But long term, your core here is Davis and Trumbo, and that makes me sad.

[Lucky_13]

10 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I think there's a lot of things wrong with the OP - particularly with the conceptions on trade values and on what the core is.

Adam Jones at this point in his career and at his salary just isn't going to get you much.

The O's got Castillo relatively cheaply when anyone else could have gotten him - and he's doing only okay.  So, I don't see him having much trade value - might as well keep him.  

O'Day at his age and not having a great season isn't gonna get you much - might as well keep him.  

Seth Smith - why would anyone give up much for a rental like him?

When you start out the list of next year's core with Rickard, you lose me.  He's a decent backup but not a core guy.  

There are 2 key decisions, imo.  One is whether or not to trade Machado.  The other is whether or not to trade Britton.  If there's a third, it's whether or not to trade Brach.  

 

 

I agree with most of this. If the Orioles want to get real value they have to at least make Britton, Brach, and possibly Givens available. 

But I disagree on Castillo. I think he could get a decent prospect back or maybe a blocked player. He's the 2nd best catcher behind lucroy.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

 

You are right about O'Day, he has been a mid 3 ERA reliever for two years and they owe him $9 per for two more years.

I think O'Day's ERA is kind of fluky.   Opposing hitters are batting .179/.279/.256, and he's striking out 11.3 per 9.     His walk rate is higher than normal for him (4.2 per 9), but 5 of his 14 walks were in his first two outings of the year.    And, 5 of the 13 runs he's allowed were in his first 3 outings.   I'm expecting a very strong second half from O'Day.