Are we a bad team masquerading as a mediocre one?

[Frobby]

I go back and forth on this topic.    We are 72-75, and by Pythagorean record, should be more like 69-78.    That's pretty bad.

Fangraphs ran a piece this morning where they broke down the fWAR totals for every team into top 5 players, next 5, and then 11-25.    That analysis had our top 5 in 21st place out of 30 teams, the next five in 24th place, the 11-25 guys in 25th place, and overall total in 27th place -- fourth from the bottom!    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/breaking-down-where-the-wins-have-come-from/

It still feels like it all comes down to pitching, but by fWAR, our position players are 20th out of 30. The pitchers are 25th, very poor but perhaps not as epically bad as the team ERA suggests.   That's because the team's defense ranks 26th among the 30 teams, at -26.2 runs.   The outfield defense is at -30.3, which believe it or not, is a big improvement over last year, when it was -55.5.   And by the way, the offense is only so-so, 16th out of 30.    All in all, not a formula for a winning team.    

[MagicBird]

This may be an over simplification of the team/season but I feel like the pitching was so bad that the rest of the team pressed and it caused most of the guys on the team to under perform this year.  

 

We can point to the BP.   Loss of Britton.  Corner OF.  JJ Hardy out, etc. but it really has been the pitching.

[Pheasants]

There have been times in previous years, and even this year, when our hitters bailed out the pitchers and even vice versa--Gausman the other night.  That got us the national reputation of being lucky rather than good. This year, especially this month, it seems that when the pitchers did well, our hitters could not do anything. Wasn't last night the second time in 10 games when pitchers gave up more than 4 runs in a game?  We should win most games if the pitchers are giving up 4 or less, but suddenly our offense averaged 2 runs.  If the hitters pressed, it seems it was on the nights when the pitchers were good.

[Enjoy Terror]

15 minutes ago, MagicBird said:

We can point to the BP.   Loss of Britton.  Corner OF.  JJ Hardy out, etc. but it really has been the pitching.

We had very few injuries this year. If I had to guess, we were probably a top 5 healthiest team in the majors. I think at any one time we didn't have more than 4 people down all year.

[glenn__davis]

19 minutes ago, MagicBird said:

This may be an over simplification of the team/season but I feel like the pitching was so bad that the rest of the team pressed and it caused most of the guys on the team to under perform this year.  

 

We can point to the BP.   Loss of Britton.  Corner OF.  JJ Hardy out, etc. but it really has been the pitching.

The offense hasn't been great, but I don't think you're over-simplifying.  This is simply the "human element" of the game that the numbers quantify.

It has to be disheartening as a hitter to constantly be down by such large margins early in the game.  Has to be.  And I know they try to stay on an even keel, but constantly feeling the need to make up deficits is difficult.  

Maybe just as frustrating is scoring runs, only to then have your pitcher give it right back.  I'm reminded of that game against TB where we battled back from a huge early deficit, and then the next inning Brach gave it right back up.  They can say all the right things, but these things wear on you.

There were issues with the offense for sure (which honestly mostly boil down to Davis and Trumbo), but I do believe the offense was at least partially affected by the horrible starting pitching.

[Camden_yardbird]

Look at top 5 salaries on each team and relative fwar contribution.  Orioles can't sustain how bad that ratio is, arguably no team could.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

We had very few injuries this year. If I had to guess, we were probably a top 5 healthiest team in the majors. I think at any one time we didn't have more than 4 people down all year.

I agree.   Castillo had some brief DL stints, but other than him and Hardy (who was having a terrible year anyway), the starting lineup was intact all year.    We only had one starting pitcher get hurt (Tillman).     Overall, we got off light.

[Going Underground]

32 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

We had very few injuries this year. If I had to guess, we were probably a top 5 healthiest team in the majors. I think at any one time we didn't have more than 4 people down all year.

They are the healthiest team of the wild card teams for the stretch run.. It has not seemed to help. 

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

The offense hasn't been great, but I don't think you're over-simplifying.  This is simply the "human element" of the game that the numbers quantify.

It has to be disheartening as a hitter to constantly be down by such large margins early in the game.  Has to be.  And I know they try to stay on an even keel, but constantly feeling the need to make up deficits is difficult.  

Maybe just as frustrating is scoring runs, only to then have your pitcher give it right back.  I'm reminded of that game against TB where we battled back from a huge early deficit, and then the next inning Brach gave it right back up.  They can say all the right things, but these things wear on you.

There were issues with the offense for sure (which honestly mostly boil down to Davis and Trumbo), but I do believe the offense was at least partially affected by the horrible starting pitching.

The offense has about met expectations.      Last year we were at 4.59 runs/game, 7th in the league and .07 above the league average.   This year we are at 4.73 runs/game, 7th in the league and .01 below league average.    (Note: we were 4th in the league at 4.90 runs/game before the recent slump; we'll see if we continue slumping or rebound a bit.)

[Pheasants]

5 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

They are the healthiest team of the wild card teams for the stretch run.. It has not seemed to help. 

Wouldn't it be great if Smith, Trumbo and Davis all sprained ankles?  Nothing bad but just enough to bench them.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I go back and forth on this topic.    We are 72-75, and by Pythagorean record, should be more like 69-78.    That's pretty bad.

Fangraphs ran a piece this morning where they broke down the fWAR totals for every team into top 5 players, next 5, and then 11-25.    That analysis had our top 5 in 21st place out of 30 teams, the next five in 24th place, the 11-25 guys in 25th place, and overall total in 27th place -- fourth from the bottom!    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/breaking-down-where-the-wins-have-come-from/

It still feels like it all comes down to pitching, but by fWAR, our position players are 20th out of 30. The pitchers are 25th, very poor but perhaps not as epically bad as the team ERA suggests.   That's because the team's defense ranks 26th among the 30 teams, at -26.2 runs.   The outfield defense is at -30.3, which believe it or not, is a big improvement over last year, when it was -55.5.   And by the way, the offense is only so-so, 16th out of 30.    All in all, not a formula for a winning team.    

Yes they are a bad team. Top to bottom. The organization is a mess. I don't see how it can be fixed. Starts with ownership down to the GM down to the manager. I will always cheer for the O's. 

[JohnD]

I mean it's definitely bad, rotten, awful pitching.  

The hitting has been good, though with production exceeding expectations in as many cases as it underachieved.  Basically a wash.

all told once again the sum is greater than the parts, primarily because of pitching being so awful so often.

[OFFNY]

o

 

I believe that the starting pitching at-large has been so bad this season that it was part of the reason for the bullpen going from an excellent one (an A+ or an A) to a good one (an A- or a B+.)

Add to that the injury to Zach Britton for a significant portion of the season, and that's a lot of extra labor for the men in the 'pen.

 

o

[OFFNY]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

I go back and forth on this topic. We are 72-75, and by Pythagorean record, should be more like 69-78. That's pretty bad.

Fangraphs ran a piece this morning where they broke down the fWAR totals for every team into top 5 players, next 5, and then 11-25. That analysis had our top 5 in 21st place out of 30 teams, the next five in 24th place, the 11-25 guys in 25th place, and overall total in 27th place -- fourth from the bottom!    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/breaking-down-where-the-wins-have-come-from/

It still feels like it all comes down to pitching, but by fWAR, our position players are 20th out of 30. The pitchers are 25th, very poor but perhaps not as epically bad as the team ERA suggests. That's because the team's defense ranks 26th among the 30 teams, at -26.2 runs. The outfield defense is at -30.3, which believe it or not, is a big improvement over last year, when it was -55.5. And by the way, the offense is only so-so, 16th out of 30. All in all, not a formula for a winning team.

   

o

 

Not a formula for a winning team, and perhaps a rebuttal to Buck Showalter's critics ........ to expect anything more than the 72-75 overall record this team (with this starting pitching) has amassed is almost asking for the impossible.

 

o

[Ohfan67]

They've only had two months with a winning percentage and September is shaping up to be epically bad. That's a bad team overall. I feel like revisiting Tony's "worst season" thread...The last two weeks or so have been very disheartening and the team has basically nullified all of the positives that they produced in August. Yuck.