Orioles Will Face Tough Decision On Adam Jones After 2018 Season

[MDtransplant757]

On 10/28/2017 at 6:54 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Stewart and Mancini and Santander, maybe Mountcastle.

I forgot about Santander. God, it’s great to have good OF depth and prospects for once. Mancini should DH if we can get rid of Trumbo this year or next year. I think Mountcastle is being groomed to replace Schoop or Manny if they leave, so honestly, I don’t see him moving to LF

[Can_of_corn]

25 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

I forgot about Santander. God, it’s great to have good OF depth and prospects for once. Mancini should DH if we can get rid of Trumbo this year or next year. I think Mountcastle is being groomed to replace Schoop or Manny if they leave, so honestly, I don’t see him moving to LF

Won't be easy to move Trumbo.

I agree that Montcastle will ideally be an infielder but that might not work out.

[MDtransplant757]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Won't be easy to move Trumbo.

I agree that Montcastle will ideally be an infielder but that might not work out.

I know it won’t. I’d try and target Miami, who is trying to shed $90 million in payroll for next year. Problem is that there is no place for Trumbo. DD is known to get creative, so hopefully he figures a move out. 

Mountcastle apparently hasn’t been terrible in the AFL at 3B. Ideally, if he can stick there, i’d Be happy. 2B would be good too if we keep Manny. If we manage to keep Manny and Schoop, then i’d flip him for some pitching. 

[esmd]

I think they've got Mountcastle penciled in as our 2019 starting 3rd baseman.  Because let's be honest, it won't be Manny.

[Frobby]

So what does Cain’s 5/$80 mm deal tell us about what kind of deal Adam Jones will get next year?

Cain is going into his age 32 season and has been worth 20.5 rWAR the last four seasons (5.3 last year).   Jones will be entering his age 33 season and has been worth 11.7 rWAR the last four seasons (2.5 rWAR).

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

So what does Cain’s 5/$80 mm deal tell us about what kind of deal Adam Jones will get next year?

Cain is going into his age 32 season and has been worth 20.5 rWAR the last four seasons (5.3 last year).   Jones will be entering his age 33 season and has been worth 11.7 rWAR the last four seasons (2.5 rWAR).

Anything over 3 year is probably not going to work for the O's is my guess.   Jones will have to go free agent and get a longer contract somewhere else if that is what he wants.  If Cain is a 16m/per year player then Jones is probably a 12 or 13m player.

[MikeAD]

Here’s the thing.  If Adam Jones means a lot to the fan base then you keep him. Unless there are drastic changes this team will not compete during his 34-36 yr old seasons. If you feel having him around helps keep fans in seats then  offer an extension during this season. If you wait until he hits free agency he will not be an oriole. We will be outbid and he will not be moved to stay by the acquisitions we do not make. 

[clapdiddy]

8 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

Here’s the thing.  If Adam Jones means a lot to the fan base then you keep him. Unless there are drastic changes this team will not compete during his 34-36 yr old seasons. If you feel having him around helps keep fans in seats then  offer an extension during this season. If you wait until he hits free agency he will not be an oriole. We will be outbid and he will not be moved to stay by the acquisitions we do not make. 

We can't continue to do this type of thing.   Jones has been a great player, but we can't be over-paying for the downside of his career.   As much as it would hurt to see him in a different uniform, I think this will be his last season in Baltimore.   We can't afford to pay him the market price.   If you read what he's tweeted, he is not likely to take a "hometown discount".  He's going to look for a big payday, and likely with a contender.

[MikeAD]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

We can't continue to do this type of thing.   Jones has been a great player, but we can't be over-paying for the downside of his career.   As much as it would hurt to see him in a different uniform, I think this will be his last season in Baltimore.   We can't afford to pay him the market price.   If you read what he's tweeted, he is not likely to take a "hometown discount".  He's going to look for a big payday, and likely with a contender.

Yes I agree with you.  Ive also been pretty vocal that he will not be here next season and I hope for his sake he gets out and gets to either play for SD or a contender if that is what he wants.  However I am not too concerned with them giving him this money as that money is not going to go anywhere else.  We wouldn't be paying Jones for anomaly seasons like Davis and Trumbo.  If hes willing to move to a corner spot I'd rather battle for 4th place with him than without.  Realistically, outside of the death of an owner or sale of the team, that money spent on Jones is not going towards keeping young players or bringing in winning talent.  That is why I say if the team feels having him on the team is better for the fans, they had better extend him during the season.  He is a leader who is involved in the community and a good guy, ill take it.  

[Camden_yardbird]

3 year, 15 per. A corner OF spot. And a solid shot at the Orioles HOF.

[clapdiddy]

1 hour ago, MikeAD said:

Yes I agree with you.  Ive also been pretty vocal that he will not be here next season and I hope for his sake he gets out and gets to either play for SD or a contender if that is what he wants.  However I am not too concerned with them giving him this money as that money is not going to go anywhere else.  We wouldn't be paying Jones for anomaly seasons like Davis and Trumbo.  If hes willing to move to a corner spot I'd rather battle for 4th place with him than without.  Realistically, outside of the death of an owner or sale of the team, that money spent on Jones is not going towards keeping young players or bringing in winning talent.  That is why I say if the team feels having him on the team is better for the fans, they had better extend him during the season.  He is a leader who is involved in the community and a good guy, ill take it.  

Agree with everything you say here.  I'm really hoping we can get him on a 3/45 type of deal to play right field.  

[Pheasants]

6 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Agree with everything you say here.  I'm really hoping we can get him on a 3/45 type of deal to play right field.  

If he doesn't agree to right field, we should say goodbye.  And right now, he doesn't seem ready to consider it.

[interloper]

I'm not sure there's a tough decision to be made here because I think Jones knows the O's won't pay him what he believes he's worth, and that's probably entirely true, and he's not going to bother waiting around while whoever is in charge of the Orioles after this season (???) debates it endlessly, only to offer a lowball deal or have his medicals questioned or have the process drag out until March. 

And while that's kind of sad, I think Adam would be right to just say "yeah, see ya". Which some folks will be fine with regardless due to his decline as a player. 

Will someone pay Jones what he thinks he's worth next offseason? If healthy, I say yes. Cain got 5/$80 at age 31. While he features much better defense and much better OBP, he lacks power. I think Jones could get 4/$60 with a move to RF on a team that sees him as a superb clubhouse presence who can hit about 25 homers in an already-good lineup. There's value in that kind of player if you're a team that has some money and a hole in the outfield and are willing to punt on the last season and a half or so of that contract.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I'm not sure there's a tough decision to be made here because I think Jones knows the O's won't pay him what he believes he's worth, and that's probably entirely true, and he's not going to bother waiting around while whoever is in charge of the Orioles after this season (???) debates it endlessly, only to offer a lowball deal or have his medicals questioned or have the process drag out until March. 

And while that's kind of sad, I think Adam would be right to just say "yeah, see ya". Which some folks will be fine with regardless due to his decline as a player. 

Will someone pay Jones what he thinks he's worth next offseason? If healthy, I say yes. Cain got 5/$80 at age 31. While he features much better defense and much better OBP, he lacks power. I think Jones could get 4/$60 with a move to RF on a team that sees him as a superb clubhouse presence who can hit about 25 homers in an already-good lineup. There's value in that kind of player if you're a team that has some money and a hole in the outfield and are willing to punt on the last season and a half or so of that contract.

I can't see Jones getting a contract in that range next year.  Remember, a lot of Cain's value is in his ability to keep playing CF.  Being projected as a corner OFer dramatically reduces Jones' value.  I'd be surprised if Adam gets even a 2/20 offer - he'll have to have a good 2018 season to get that, imo.  Regardless, after his playing days are over, I'd like to see him stay with the O's organization.  He's a real asset to the city of Baltimore.    

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I can't see Jones getting a contract in that range next year.  Remember, a lot of Cain's value is in his ability to keep playing CF.  Being projected as a corner OFer dramatically reduces Jones' value.  I'd be surprised if Adam gets even a 2/20 offer - he'll have to have a good 2018 season to get that, imo.  Regardless, after his playing days are over, I'd like to see him stay with the O's organization.  He's a real asset to the city of Baltimore.    

I guess we'll find out. I definitely don't see him having a problem getting at least 3 years. Trumbo got 3 years and brings 1 single thing to the table. Cruz got 3 years.