Six pitchers who improved dramatically on dismal 2016 seasons

[Frobby]

Part of DD’s job this winter is to look for guys who had a bad year in 2017 but are good candidates to bounce back.    In 2016, there were 25 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings and had an ERA over 5.00.    Most of those pitchers were not significantly better in 2017, but here are six who were:

1.  Sonny Gray (27) — 5.69  ERA (4.67 FIP, 4.13 xFIP) in 2016, 3.55 (3.90, 3.76) in 2017.

2.   Jorge de la Rosa (36) — 5.51 ERA (5.36 FIP, 4.81 xFIP) in 2016, 4.21 (4.58, 4.75) in 2017.

3.   Edinson Volquez (34) — 5.37 ERA (4.57 FIP, 4.58 xFIP) in 2016, 4.19 (4.35, 4.78) in 2017.

4.   Andrew Cashner (31) — 5.25 ERA (4.84 FIP, 4.63 xFIP) in 2016,  3.40 (4.64, 5.30) in 2017.

5.   Patrick Corbin (28)  — 5.15 ERA (4.84 FIP, 4.23 xFIP) in 2016, 4.03 (4.08, 3.89) in 2017.

6.    Michael Wacha (26) — 5.09 ERA (3.91 FIP, 4.05 xFIP) in 2016, 4.13 (3.63, 3.88) in 2017. 

Eyeballing this year’s list of 5.00+ ERA pitchers, is there anyone who seems like a strong comeback candidate we should target?    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

[Luke-OH]

 

Nick Pivetta (24) -  A guy with a rough first season.  Wasn't a top prospect, but has a mid-90's fastball and three other pitches.  Gave up a ton of home runs but the rest of his stats look amazingly similar from his milb line in 2016 in which he had an ERA in the low 3s.

Joe Biagini (27) - Didn't fare as well after the move to a starting role in 2016.  His underlying numbers where better than the ERA showed and he held his velocity well as a starter which bodes well going forward.

[SteveA]

Also worth noting Charlie Morton.   He missed almost all of 2016 with a torn hamstring.   But before 2016, he had a career ERA over 4 pitching entirely in the NL.  This year his 3.46 ERA, at age 33, was the lowest he ever posted, and he pitched in the AL.   His career WHIP was over 1.4, and this year he posted a 1.193 WHIP, also the lowest he ever had.

Who will it be this year?   Maybe Chris Tillman?   Matt Moore?

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

 

Nick Pivetta (24) -  A guy with a rough first season.  Wasn't a top prospect, but has a mid-90's fastball and three other pitches.  Gave up a ton of home runs but the rest of his stats look amazingly similar from his milb line in 2016 in which he had an ERA in the low 3s.

Joe Biagini (27) - Didn't fare as well after the move to a starting role in 2016.  His underlying numbers where better than the ERA showed and he held his velocity well as a starter which bodes well going forward.

I like both of them, but I don’t think their current teams would give them up cheaply, given the many years of team control that remain.  

[Since'54]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Part of DD’s job this winter is to look for guys who had a bad year in 2017 but are good candidates to bounce back.    In 2016, there were 25 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings and had an ERA over 5.00.    Most of those pitchers were not significantly better in 2017, but here are six who were:

1.  Sonny Gray (27) — 5.69  ERA (4.67 FIP, 4.13 xFIP) in 2016, 3.55 (3.90, 3.76) in 2017.

2.   Jorge de la Rosa (36) — 5.51 ERA (5.36 FIP, 4.81 xFIP) in 2016, 4.21 (4.58, 4.75) in 2017.

3.   Edinson Volquez (34) — 5.37 ERA (4.57 FIP, 4.58 xFIP) in 2016, 4.19 (4.35, 4.78) in 2017.

4.   Andrew Cashner (31) — 5.25 ERA (4.84 FIP, 4.63 xFIP) in 2016,  3.40 (4.64, 5.30) in 2017.

5.   Patrick Corbin (28)  — 5.15 ERA (4.84 FIP, 4.23 xFIP) in 2016, 4.03 (4.08, 3.89) in 2017.

6.    Michael Wacha (26) — 5.09 ERA (3.91 FIP, 4.05 xFIP) in 2016, 4.13 (3.63, 3.88) in 2017. 

Eyeballing this year’s list of 5.00+ ERA pitchers, is there anyone who seems like a strong comeback candidate we should target?    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

Seems an awful lot like guesswork to me.  And our guessers haven't distinguished themselves this last year.

Gotta be a better way.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I like both of them, but I don’t think their current teams would give them up cheaply, given the many years of team control that remain.  

No, not cheap, but not particularly expensive either.  They are pitching versions of Mancini (overachievers without much prospect status).  Mancini would be more than enough for either IMO, perhaps getting another piece back.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

No, not cheap, but not particularly expensive either.  They are pitching versions of Mancini (overachievers without much prospect status).  Mancini would be more than enough for either IMO, perhaps getting another piece back.  

Given the OF talent we have in the minors, I’d seriously consider a swap like that.  

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

Given the OF talent we have in the minors, I’d seriously consider a swap like that.  

I agree, I think these are the types of trades we could realistically expect if the team trades Mancini.  The team isn't going to get a haul for him (due to lack of defensive value and prospect status), and while he could increase his worth with another solid season he could just as easily struggle and lose the value he currently has.

[SteveA]

Hishashi Iwakuma was hurt most of the year (shoulder) for Seattle and they declined a team option on him today.

Does he have anything left in the tank at age 37 next year?

He'd probably come quite cheap.

[Since'54]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

No, not cheap, but not particularly expensive either.  They are pitching versions of Mancini (overachievers without much prospect status).  Mancini would be more than enough for either IMO, perhaps getting another piece back.  

Why do you say this about Mancini?  If, after 5 years of professional baseball in which his OPS was .832, .735, .938, .815, .826 and his HR production was 3,10,21,20,and 24, what does he have to do to impress you.  For me, he is the just about the Orioles' brightest light in a pretty dim sky. 

[Tx Oriole]

54 minutes ago, Since'54 said:

Why do you say this about Mancini?  If, after 5 years of professional baseball in which his OPS was .832, .735, .938, .815, .826 and his HR production was 3,10,21,20,and 24, what does he have to do to impress you.  For me, he is the just about the Orioles' brightest light in a pretty dim sky. 

It is a pretty dim sky for sure. 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Since'54 said:

Why do you say this about Mancini?  If, after 5 years of professional baseball in which his OPS was .832, .735, .938, .815, .826 and his HR production was 3,10,21,20,and 24, what does he have to do to impress you.  For me, he is the just about the Orioles' brightest light in a pretty dim sky. 

You got me all wrong, I like Mancini, I’ve liked him for awhile. I thought they should promote him instead of resigning Davis. The statement about prospect status isn’t my opinion it’s the consensus of the prospect analyst world. He was never near the top 100.  Mancini has definitely exceeded expectations.  

I think highly of the two pitchers I mentioned and think they would be good acquisitions for a team with limited pitching, especially in the upper minors.  I think Mancini is more valuable than they are, hence me saying the O’s could probably get an additional piece.

[tntoriole]

Again with the trading Mancini because we know he overachieved, he will not be able to replicate it, he is a “defensive liability”...blah, blah, blah. 

Trey is a beast.  If they trade him because of these assumptions, they will be very, very, very sorry.   Trey is not going to be worse in 2018, he is going to be better in every facet. 

He had never played left field at any point in his entire baseball career.  Just ask yourself how many big league regulars were shifted to a position they had NEVER played...never....and did as well as Trey did?    Is there no learning curve out there?  Do we not think that him playing at least one spring training might lead to him improving in left? 

 

Geez, the one cost controlled, over achieving, non problem and some want to trade him...Not unless the return is astronomical because at the end of 2018, Trey’s value at the actual big league level will put a stop to all those not a “top 100prospects” opinions.

 

Repeat after me...Trey is a beast.  You do not trade beasts. 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Again with the trading Mancini because we know he overachieved, he will not be able to replicate it, he is a “defensive liability”...blah, blah, blah. 

Trey is a beast.  If they trade him because of these assumptions, they will be very, very, very sorry.   Trey is not going to be worse in 2018, he is going to be better in every facet. 

He had never played left field at any point in his entire baseball career.  Just ask yourself how many big league regulars were shifted to a position they had NEVER played...never....and did as well as Trey did?    Is there no learning curve out there?  Do we not think that him playing at least one spring training might lead to him improving in left? 

 

Geez, the one cost controlled, over achieving, non problem and some want to trade him...Not unless the return is astronomical because at the end of 2018, Trey’s value at the actual big league level will put a stop to all those not a “top 100prospects” opinions.

 

Repeat after me...Trey is a beast.  You do not trade beasts. 

One can have a high opinion of Mancini and still be willing to trade him to improve the pitching.    

[Luke-OH]

15 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Again with the trading Mancini because we know he overachieved, he will not be able to replicate it, he is a “defensive liability”...blah, blah, blah. 

Trey is a beast.  If they trade him because of these assumptions, they will be very, very, very sorry.   Trey is not going to be worse in 2018, he is going to be better in every facet. 

He had never played left field at any point in his entire baseball career.  Just ask yourself how many big league regulars were shifted to a position they had NEVER played...never....and did as well as Trey did?    Is there no learning curve out there?  Do we not think that him playing at least one spring training might lead to him improving in left? 

 

Geez, the one cost controlled, over achieving, non problem and some want to trade him...Not unless the return is astronomical because at the end of 2018, Trey’s value at the actual big league level will put a stop to all those not a “top 100prospects” opinions.

 

Repeat after me...Trey is a beast.  You do not trade beasts. 

It’s just trading from an area of strength to fill an area of weakness.  I only mention prospect status because is because when players overachieve, teams are slower to trust the MLB results. As for his defense, he played admirably in LF considering his lack of experience. His defensive upside is limited by his speed and throwing arm (it is pretty accurate, but not strong). 

One thing you will realize about me is I am ok with trading anyone.