Six pitchers who improved dramatically on dismal 2016 seasons

[tntoriole]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One can have a high opinion of Mancini and still be willing to trade him to improve the pitching.    

I am not willing to do it for the so-called all in for 2018.....Because unlike Dan and Buck....we all will still be living and dying with the Os in 2019 and beyond.  I think Trey is going to be a star, so selling him now would be way, way low in my view unless we receive  a Jonathan Schoop type return.   Otherwise, I pass. 

[tntoriole]

31 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

It’s just trading from an area of strength to fill an area of weakness.  I only mention prospect status because is because when players overachieve, teams are slower to trust the MLB results. As for his defense, he played admirably in LF considering his lack of experience. His defensive upside is limited by his speed and throwing arm (it is pretty accurate, but not strong). 

One thing you will realize about me is I am ok with trading anyone.  

I would not trade Trey unless I was overwhelmed...say a Jonathan Schoop return  or  a Manny return (the one year rental of Manny return).   Plenty of big time left fielders in major league history were limited by throwing arm...Trey’s is much better than many I have seen play left field for past pennant winning Orioles teams. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Plenty of big time left fielders in major league history were limited by throwing arm...Trey’s is much better than many I have seen play left field for past pennant winning Orioles teams. 

1966 - Blefary/Snider.     Blefary was a butcher.    Snider was better than Mancini.

1969-71 - Buford was much better.

1979, 1983 - Lowenstein/Roenicke both better.

[Since'54]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

One can have a high opinion of Mancini and still be willing to trade him to improve the pitching.    

For sure.  But wouldn't you expect a successful pitcher -- just as Mancini is a successful outfielder.  The question about who is or has been labeled or mis-labeled as a prospect is a non-factor. The man has continuously demonstrated his abilities.  Enough already.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Since'54 said:

For sure.  But wouldn't you expect a successful pitcher -- just as Mancini is a successful outfielder.  The question about who is or has been labeled or mis-labeled as a prospect is a non-factor. The man has continuously demonstrated his abilities.  Enough already.

I agree with you on the latter point — we have a good idea of what Mancini can contribute, so whatever his prospect status was in the minors is fairly irrelevant by now.   I personally believe he may slide back to a .775ish OPS type guy, but clearly he can hit major league pitching at a reasonable clip and be serviceable in the OF.   And, maybe he’ll be able to maintain or even improve upon his .826 OPS from last year.

Saying that, I’d rather have a young pitcher who hasn’t quite put it together yet but shows the potential to do that.     We have other outfielders coming through the system, and not enough pitching.   

[Redskins Rick]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Part of DD’s job this winter is to look for guys who had a bad year in 2017 but are good candidates to bounce back.    In 2016, there were 25 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings and had an ERA over 5.00.    Most of those pitchers were not significantly better in 2017, but here are six who were:

1.  Sonny Gray (27) — 5.69  ERA (4.67 FIP, 4.13 xFIP) in 2016, 3.55 (3.90, 3.76) in 2017.

2.   Jorge de la Rosa (36) — 5.51 ERA (5.36 FIP, 4.81 xFIP) in 2016, 4.21 (4.58, 4.75) in 2017.

3.   Edinson Volquez (34) — 5.37 ERA (4.57 FIP, 4.58 xFIP) in 2016, 4.19 (4.35, 4.78) in 2017.

4.   Andrew Cashner (31) — 5.25 ERA (4.84 FIP, 4.63 xFIP) in 2016,  3.40 (4.64, 5.30) in 2017.

5.   Patrick Corbin (28)  — 5.15 ERA (4.84 FIP, 4.23 xFIP) in 2016, 4.03 (4.08, 3.89) in 2017.

6.    Michael Wacha (26) — 5.09 ERA (3.91 FIP, 4.05 xFIP) in 2016, 4.13 (3.63, 3.88) in 2017. 

Eyeballing this year’s list of 5.00+ ERA pitchers, is there anyone who seems like a strong comeback candidate we should target?    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

Nice work.

Sonny Gray has always been the one name that caught my interest.

[Babypowder]

12 hours ago, tntoriole said:

I would not trade Trey unless I was overwhelmed...say a Jonathan Schoop return  or  a Manny return (the one year rental of Manny return).   Plenty of big time left fielders in major league history were limited by throwing arm...Trey’s is much better than many I have seen play left field for past pennant winning Orioles teams. 

You want a Manny Machado or Jonathan Schoop return for a guy who was an average player in 2016, is older than both of those players, has an outfield ceiling limited by lack of athleticism, and a 1B ceiling limited by a lack of plate discipline?

Yes, Mancini exceeded expectations and I'm happy he did, but he was a ~2 win player. I think Mancini's most likely career path is quite similar to Mark Trumbo's.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

You want a Manny Machado or Jonathan Schoop return for a guy who was an average player in 2016, is older than both of those players  has an outfield ceiling limited by lack of athleticism, and a 1B ceiling limited by a lack of plate discipline?

Mancini is 4 months older than Manny, but 5 months younger than Schoop.    Doesn’t really change your point, but it’s still better to be factually accurate.

[Babypowder]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mancini is 4 months older than Manny, but 5 months younger than Schoop.    Doesn’t really change your point, but it’s still better to be factually accurate.

Thank you. I had it in my head that Manny and Schoop were the same age for some reason.

[wildbillhiccup]

13 hours ago, tntoriole said:

I would not trade Trey unless I was overwhelmed...say a Jonathan Schoop return  or  a Manny return (the one year rental of Manny return).   Plenty of big time left fielders in major league history were limited by throwing arm...Trey’s is much better than many I have seen play left field for past pennant winning Orioles teams. 

So what you're saying is that you wouldn't make a fair trade? That's not how baseball works. There's nothing wrong with trading talent for talent to fill a hole. If there's potential to trade Mancini for a similar pitching prospect they should consider it. Not because they don't like Mancini upside, but because pitching is a bigger need than OF for the team. 

I'll even give you a hypothetical example. If the Astros called and offered Brad Peacock for Mancini that would be a perfect trade for the Orioles. Unfortunately the Stros already have a glut of OFs, but I'm sure there are teams that match up better. 

[tntoriole]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

1966 - Blefary/Snider.     Blefary was a butcher.    Snider was better than Mancini.

1969-71 - Buford was much better.

1979, 1983 - Lowenstein/Roenicke both better.

Buford's speed and power in the leadoff slot was more of an asset than his arm strength- he was an outfielder at USC but was taken out of the outfield and put at second with the White Sox for two years before being traded to Baltimore and then put in left field under Earl who wanted his leadoff bat and speed in the lineup and who had Davy Johnson at second base.   His speed was definitely better than Mancini.  Russ Snyder played 50+ games in left field in 1966 but was more often in center field.  Mancini is not a center fielder, of course.   Adam Jones would probably be a better left fielder than Mancini but the comparison is with Blefary who, as you note, was terrible in both areas. 

Gary Roenicke had a much better arm than John Lowenstein but Gary too, like Russ Snyder, also played a fair amount of center field.     So arm wise, I would say that Mancini is better than  Blefary and Buford, worse than Roenicke and Snyder and at worst a wash or somewhat better than Lowenstein.  

[tntoriole]

6 hours ago, Babypowder said:

You want a Manny Machado or Jonathan Schoop return for a guy who was an average player in 2016, is older than both of those players, has an outfield ceiling limited by lack of athleticism, and a 1B ceiling limited by a lack of plate discipline?

Yes, Mancini exceeded expectations and I'm happy he did, but he was a ~2 win player. I think Mancini's most likely career path is quite similar to Mark Trumbo's.

I disagree.  And you likely would have had him at Norfolk most of 2017 for the same reasons.  

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

I disagree.  And you likely would have had him at Norfolk most of 2017 for the same reasons.  

We aren’t saying trade him because we think he sucks. We are saying trade him because he has value and could get the O’s something equally valuable at a position of weakness (starting pitching).

[tntoriole]

5 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So what you're saying is that you wouldn't make a fair trade? That's not how baseball works. There's nothing wrong with trading talent for talent to fill a hole. If there's potential to trade Mancini for a similar pitching prospect they should consider it. Not because they don't like Mancini upside, but because pitching is a bigger need than OF for the team. 

I'll even give you a hypothetical example. If the Astros called and offered Brad Peacock for Mancini that would be a perfect trade for the Orioles. Unfortunately the Stros already have a glut of OFs, but I'm sure there are teams that match up better. 

"Fair" depends on how much upside you believe Mancini to have.  If you believe as many do on this board that he is a less than 2 WAR player who somehow over performed  in this rookie season, then they would trade him "fairly" for a lot less return than if you believe him, as I do, to still be on the upswing of development into a 4-5 WAR player who, of course, is cost controlled, etc. etc.  So, we shall see what his value is at the end of 2018 and then look back and see whether the "fair" trade offers being suggested right now look "fair" or not.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

"Fair" depends on how much upside you believe Mancini to have.  If you believe as many do on this board that he is a less than 2 WAR player who somehow over performed  in this rookie season, then they would trade him "fairly" for a lot less return than if you believe him, as I do, to still be on the upswing of development into a 4-5 WAR player who, of course, is cost controlled, etc. etc.  So, we shall see what his value is at the end of 2018 and then look back and see whether the "fair" trade offers being suggested right now look "fair" or not.  

It will be difficult for him to ascend to the 4-5 WAR level with his defensive limitations.