Orioles Interested in Lance Lynn

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, phillyOs119 said:

No, this is a misinterpretation of PA's philosophy. He doesn't mind spending on international free agents, he just doesn't want to spend serious money on 16 year olds.  Ohtani is a 23 year old man who throws 100mph and can hit the ball 400+ ft easily.  He is one of the best pitchers and hitters in the second best baseball league in the world.  

So, not saving up was a bit short sighted.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

So, not saving up was a bit short sighted.

Everyone knew there was a legitimate chance he would be posted.  Obviously the Orioles did not think he was worth pursuing.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

So, not saving up was a bit short sighted.

I think so, or perhaps they thought they couldn't compete with the sponsorship opportunities NY or other large markets offer.

This is a guy who is taking a pay cut to come to the states, and if he waited 2 more years, he'd get at least 20x (I'm not exaggerating) as much.  So there are other factors than the 3 million or so a team could give him.  Basically whatever team is willing to bend the rules the most to woo him is the team he'll sign with because this is going to be completely unprecedented.  All teams should put up the 20 million posting fee for a chance to negotiate and make their best pitch.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Everyone knew there was a legitimate chance he would be posted.  Obviously the Orioles did not think he was worth pursuing.

Or, didn’t think they’d have a snowball’s chance of landing him even if they’d saved their slot money.  

[Luke-OH]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A posting fee is required?    When have the Orioles, under Angelos, ever even seriously considered a posting fee for any free agent?     You are mixing up what you would like the Orioles to do with how they actually operate.

Yes (20 million). Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Orioles have never stated that they are adverse to paying a posting fee, and I believe have placed non-winning posting bids (under the old system where the highest bidder gets to negotiate).  They didn't bother with Tanaka, because he'd require a big contract in addition to the posting fee.  Ohtani is restricted from getting a big contract.

[wildcard]

If the winning team has to post a 20m fee, What do they get for the fee?   6 years of Otani?   4 years like the O's got for Chen?  Or will Otani agent negotiate a shorter term?

I know Otani has to sign a minor leaguer contract, but can he put a clause in it the states he is a free agent is two years?

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If the winning team has to post a 20m fee, What do they get for the fee?   6 years of Otani?   4 years like the O's got for Chen?  Or will Otani agent negotiate a shorter term?

I know Otani has to sign a minor leaguer contract, but can he put a clause in it the states he is a free agent is two years?

 

Would depend on the negotiations.

The default would be can be sent to the minors without using an option.

[Luke-OH]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would depend on the negotiations.

The default would be can be sent to the minors without using an option.

Would be 6 years, subject to the arbitration process.  Could be some handshake deal to non-tender after x years, or a handshake agreement to agree to bigger salaries (you know like the avoiding abitration deals you hear about every year.  All of the however is not allowed, and MLB will scrutinize this very seriously since the temptation to bend the rules is going to be extremely strong.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Or, didn’t think they’d have a snowball’s chance of landing him even if they’d saved their slot money.  

I was including that scenario.

[Otter]

5 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

I want no part of Lance Lynn. That guy is going to be a Ubaldo style disaster if he plays here 

I don't really think it's possible to turn out worse than Ubaldo: $50 million, surrender a 1st round pick, and 4 years of miserable results.  At least we won't be giving up a 1st round pick for Lynn.  And he doesn't have the red flags Ubaldo had (dramatic decline in velocity, inconsistency, command issues).

[MDtransplant757]

8 hours ago, Otter said:

I don't really think it's possible to turn out worse than Ubaldo: $50 million, surrender a 1st round pick, and 4 years of miserable results.  At least we won't be giving up a 1st round pick for Lynn.  And he doesn't have the red flags Ubaldo had (dramatic decline in velocity, inconsistency, command issues).

Think Wade Miley bad, but with more money. He isn't close to Ubaldo terrible, but he's the tier above it. The mediocre tier. 

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Think Wade Miley bad, but with more money. He isn't close to Ubaldo terrible, but he's the tier above it. The mediocre tier. 

Lance Lynn is quite a lot better than Miley.

2015+2016

Lance Lynn: 379IP 8.26K/9   3.32BB/9    2.87ERA  3.39FIP 3.85xFIP 6.5fWAR

Wade Miley: 395IP 7.52K/9    3.17BB/9   4.40ERA 3.90FIP 3.79xFIP 4.2fWAR

[mdbdotcom]

3 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Think Wade Miley bad, but with more money. He isn't close to Ubaldo terrible, but he's the tier above it. The mediocre tier. 

What evidence do you have to support this statement?

[wildbillhiccup]

6 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Think Wade Miley bad, but with more money. He isn't close to Ubaldo terrible, but he's the tier above it. The mediocre tier. 

I'm not in favor of a Lynn signing, mostly because of his age and the numbers of years it will take to lock him up, but to group him into the same category as Miley or Jimenez is just ridiculous. He's a good, consistent pitcher and if they did sign him he'd immediately be the ace of this staff.

With the turnover expected on this team (mainly Manny leaving) they shouldn't give more than a two year deal to a any pitcher over 30.