Rule 5 Target - Nestor Cortes - LHP

[MDtransplant757]

19 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

For me it comes down to this: we don't need a player named Nestor on this team.

I'd be happy to hear about a Nasty Nestor who actually likes the O's and is doing something for the team. The other Nasty Nestor on the other hand..........

[Luke-OH]

Just wanted to post this comment straight from Cortes about why and how often he changes his arm slots during a typical start (from Steve Melewski’s interview, read the rest here).

 

“I go from all the way up top to all the way down under,” he said. “Maybe like 15-20 times. It does depend on what pitch I’m throwing. It also depends on the count, who is hitting, the situation of the game. Many, many variables.”

[Frobby]

Call me crazy, but I think this guy might be a big key to our season.   I know it seems ridiculous to say that about a Rule 5 guy who barely hits 90 and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a spring training game, much less a major league game.    But let’s say this guy’s bizarre set of deliveries and speeds plays decently at the major league level and he gives us 165 innings of 4.50ish pitching — that would make a huge difference. 

[spiritof66]

I hope he can help, but am concerned that the  effectiveness of a soft-tossing lefty is reduced if he can't pitch against the Orioles.  

[Il BuonO]

On 1/9/2018 at 1:18 PM, Ruzious said:

This nickname talk is driving me Daffy.  

Or, Dizzy. ?

[Beef Supreme]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Call me crazy, but I think this guy might be a big key to our season.   I know it seems ridiculous to say that about a Rule 5 guy who barely hits 90 and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a spring training game, much less a major league game.    But let’s say this guy’s bizarre set of deliveries and speeds plays decently at the major league level and he gives us 165 innings of 4.50ish pitching — that would make a huge difference. 

The Orioles could use Luis Tiant.

[now]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Call me crazy, but I think this guy might be a big key to our season.   I know it seems ridiculous to say that about a Rule 5 guy who barely hits 90 and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a spring training game, much less a major league game.    But let’s say this guy’s bizarre set of deliveries and speeds plays decently at the major league level and he gives us 165 innings of 4.50ish pitching — that would make a huge difference. 

Yup, there's going to be a lot of "told ya so"s about Cortes when it's all said and done. Happy to throw my hat in the optimistic side of this gamble.

[VaBird1]

I’m excited to see him.  I think if he had put up those stats as an Oriole minor leaguer more of us would think he was for real. That said, I know I shouldn’t be excited about a Rule 5 guy.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, VaBird1 said:

I’m excited to see him.  I think if he had put up those stats as an Oriole minor leaguer more of us would think he was for real. That said, I know I shouldn’t be excited about a Rule 5 guy.

I think people should take each player on their own merits, regardless of the means of acquisition.

Honestly, was what the O's gave up for JJ Hardy that much more valuable than 100k and a 25 man roster slot (the cost of acquiring a rule 5 player)?

[VaBird1]

Good point.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think people should take each player on their own merits, regardless of the means of acquisition.

Honestly, was what the O's gave up for JJ Hardy that much more valuable than 100k and a 25 man roster slot (the cost of acquiring a rule 5 player)?

When you see a guy exposed to Rule 5, it makes you wonder why the other team doesn’t think he’s good enough to protect.    If Cortes turns out to be a decent starting pitcher, then the Yankees almost surely made a mistake in not protecting him, no matter how deep their farm system is.  

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When you see a guy exposed to Rule 5, it makes you wonder why the other team doesn’t think he’s good enough to protect.    If Cortes turns out to be a decent starting pitcher, then the Yankees almost surely made a mistake in not protecting him, no matter how deep their farm system is.  

For the Yankees especially it was a numbers game. They had a ton of interesting guys, they had to move people to even protect the guys they did. 

I agree that if Cortes ends up being a decent SP, then the Yankees messed up.

My point is teams improperly value players all the time. I hear all the time, "well team x didn't like him so he's junk". I think that's an over-simplification of the issue. The reasons why a guy like Cortes would be left unprotected are pretty obvious (lack of velocity, size, pedigree, and unusual profile).

Beckham, Hardy, MiGo, Chen, Davis, Uehara, Brach, Bleier, Castro, McLouth, Lough, Pierce, Flaherty, and O'Day are a list of guys that in recent history have contributed at least one season as a valuable role player or more after being acquired after being undervalued by another team or in the case of Chen and Uehara, undervalued by the entire league.

I don't think anyone should get overly excited about Cortes or Mesa or overly pessimistic, I think you should treat them as what they are, 40 FV, maybe borderline 45 FV prospects who are near MLB ready. Think Tyler Wilson or Jordan Montgomery, similarly graded prospects, different results obviously. 

[25 Nuggets]

Good post Luke.

The fact of the matter is, the Orioles are going to need to rely on 7 or 8 starting pitchers this season (hopefully not more).  The number of times in recent history that a team has gone even 6 deep in their starting rotation over the course of a season is rare.  Those extra starting pitchers are going to be chosen from middle relief or AAA.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Good post Luke.

The fact of the matter is, the Orioles are going to need to rely on 7 or 8 starting pitchers this season (hopefully not more).  

I often wonder what people mean by a team needing 7 or 8 starters.   Here’s how many different pitchers have started a game during each year in the Duquette era, and how many of them started either 5+ or 10+ games:

2012: 12, 9, 8 (2 not in the organization on Opening Day)

2013: 14, 10, 6 (1)

2014: 7, 6, 6

2015: 8, 8, 6

2016: 9, 8, 8 (1)

2017: 11, 7, 6 (1)

Looking more broadly around MLB, last year 316 pitchers started a game — about 10.5 per team.  239 (8 per team) started 5 or more; 191 (6.4 per team) started 10 or more.   And, for what it’s worth, 56 of the 316 pitchers who started a game made their major league debut in 2017; 29 started 5 or more and 18 started 10 or more.   There’s another group of 73 who debuted in 2016, 13 of whom still haven’t made 5 starts.

Bottom line: it’s highly likely the O’s will need more than 8 pitchers to start a game in 2018.    But some will pitch only a few games, and they don’t all necessarily need to be established big league starters.

 

 

[esmd]

I'm intrigued by him and look forward to seeing him pitch in ST and to see whether he can pitch his way into the rotation.  That's about as far as I can go at this point.  I'd put the odds higher at this point for him getting lit up then I would him becoming an effective member of the rotation.