Jose Mesa Jr - Rule 5 Draftee

[Ohfan67]

58 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Indeed it does.  But I'm pleased with the way the O's handled Rule 5.  They potentially improved their roster depth at a low cost.  Granted, they probably rely on Rule 5 too much.  

But you really don't think they will start the season with 4 rule 5 guys on their 25 man roster, do you? 

[Ruzious]

12 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

But you really don't think they will start the season with 4 rule 5 guys on their 25 man roster, do you? 

I don't think it's likely - depends on how things work out - who else they acquire and how players do in ST.  I doubt the O's are done making moves.    

[Luke-OH]

I've watched some video on Mesa Jr. and here is my scouting report.

Physical - Big boy, tall and thick throughout.  

Delivery - Old school over the top delivery, uses every inch of his height to create downward plane.  Fairly low effort delivery, repeats it well most of the time. Can lose release point on occasion.

Stuff - He throws a FB, SL, CH, and CU.  The fastball is above average, sits 92-95 when starting, great plane, some armside life at times.  The change-up is his best pitch, his go to out pitch, and it is at least a plus pitch.  It is thrown with great arm speed and tumbles, it is extremely deceptive with his over the top delivery.  His breaking pitches come and go from outing to outing.  His curveball is a 12-6 breaker that flashes average but is extremely inconsistent and he doesn't throw it too much. It's a below average pitch to me.  He throws a slider that varies from a tight late breaker at times to a sweeping slurvy thing.  It appears that he is working on his breaking balls and they aren't just 2 separate pitches at this time, it's more of a spectrum.  The slider is fringe average currently.

Control/Command- Besides losing his release point from infrequently from time to time, he has good control.  His fastball command can be a bit spotty, that's probably the most important thing he improves if he's going to stick with the Orioles.  He commands his secondaries better.  He's around the plate a lot but tends to nibble more than he needs to, he's got legit stuff.  He seems like the type who never wants to give up a hit.  

Thoughts - I missed on this guy, in my defense he wasn't on the list of rule 5 eligible players I went through.  He's legit, and I think he's a starter.    He has deception, and good stuff, and a good feel for pitching.  He knows what he wants to throw, he shakes off his catchers more than anyone I've seen.  He was great in AA this year (SSS but my eyes back it up) and was stretched out to 80 pitches and 6 innings.  He lost 2+ years due to TJS and that's why he was available in the rule 5 draft.

Great pick, I love it, good work by the Orioles.  I think you have to keep him, more upside than Cortes or Araujo, if he's not ready to start, throw him in the bullpen and he should survive with his fastball/changeup combo.

[Can_of_corn]

So why did he go undrafted in the first two rounds?

I'm a skeptic at heart.  If he turns into something why are the Orioles the only ones to see it?  Why did they wait until the third round to pick him?

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So why did he go undrafted in the first two rounds?

I'm a skeptic at heart.  If he turns into something why are the Orioles the only ones to see it?  Why did they wait until the third round to pick him?

Less experience at the higher levels?

[Luke-OH]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So why did he go undrafted in the first two rounds?

I'm a skeptic at heart.  If he turns into something why are the Orioles the only ones to see it?  Why did they wait until the third round to pick him?

It looks like his velocity took a serious step forward this year. From 91-93 in short shints to 92-95 over 80 pitches. He didn’t start getting long looks until late in the season Before this season he was a low 90s RH reliever with control issues. There are 100s of those guys. Now he’s a “starter” with a mid-90s fastball, a plus secondary, and solid control.  He’s not a lock to stick or anything, he may have trouble with really patient hitters but his changeup will miss MLB bats, and his fastball also plays.

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I think Mesa and Cortes will both make the team. How crazy would it be to have three rule five picks? Dan did an excellent job this year with the rule five draft. I think Santander will be a good player as well.

[Luke-OH]

32 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

You seem very knowledgable and dedicated to your studies. How would you grade our Rule V pickups?

I’m somewhat knowledgeable and trying to learn more all the time, glad you like my contributions.

The rule 5 draft is a crapshoot really, there were two legit players available, one of them is 28 and one of them just had TJS (Burch Smith and Nick Burdi). They were gone when the O’s picked. They picked Cortes who in my opinion has the best chance to stick of any LHP (#4 overall on my list). Then a few guys I wasn’t on went (that doesn’t mean they aren’t interesting it’s hard to even figure out who all is eligible much less who is best).

Then Luke Bard who was my favorite opening day ready reliever went to the Angels (Burdi won’t be ready til midseason at best). 

The O’s picked Araujo who might have the best non-fastball pitch in the draft (curveball) and performed well in the AFL. I saw him and didn’t have him ranked because of control issues and lack of success above A+ ball, but it’s not a dumb pick.

Then the O’s picked Jose Mesa’s son who I just wrote about. So I’d say they added real talent, whether that talent will stick at the MLB level remains to be seen.

The only thing I’d have done differently (knowing what I know now about Mesa), would be to take Nate Orf or Pablo Reyes to compete for the utility spot with Tejada and Sardinas instead of taking Araujo. I think they both have more upside than the two utility options already on the club.  

[Ruzious]

3 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

It looks like his velocity took a serious step forward this year. From 91-93 in short shints to 92-95 over 80 pitches. He didn’t start getting long looks until late in the season Before this season he was a low 90s RH reliever with control issues. There are 100s of those guys. Now he’s a “starter” with a mid-90s fastball, a plus secondary, and solid control.  He’s not a lock to stick or anything, he may have trouble with really patient hitters but his changeup will miss MLB bats, and his fastball also plays.

And I get the impression no other team takes Rule 5 as seriously as the O's do and puts in the effort.  I meant it when I said some teams (like the Braves) could have used your help.  Great job.  

[Luke-OH]

8 hours ago, Ruzious said:

And I get the impression no other team takes Rule 5 as seriously as the O's do and puts in the effort.  I meant it when I said some teams (like the Braves) could have used your help.  Great job.  

Thank you for the compliment, but for the most part I think teams know what they are doing.  That's my assumption at least until I hear from a good source otherwise.  The only truly inexplicable rule 5 move in my opinion was by the Twins.  They left the highest upside reliever and most likely reliever to stick in the majors unprotected (Burdi and Bard).  Then they picked a guy who throw 100 but doesn't have a MLB quality second pitch and has poor control.  It's not like Burdi and Bard don't have good stuff.  Burdi has the best stuff in the rule 5 draft, 100+ and a plus to plus-plus slider.  Bard hits 97 and has a near plus slider with above average to plus command.  Really baffling to me. I also think utility infielder is a position teams could have taken more advantage of in the draft, generally a lot of journeyman UTIL in the majors, and there were a handful of guys with regular upside available including Nate Orf, Pablo Reyes, Kean Wong, and Travis Demeritte.

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If we were rebuilding, I'd love to just throw Mesa into the 5th spot, Cortes into the long man spot, and Araujo into another bullpen role.   However, if this team really intends to be a a contender, I don't see how they carry more than one of these guys.

 

Either there is just a lot more depth in the minors or the Orioles are getting better at indentifying players in the Rule 5.   These guys are a lot more intriguing than T.J. MacFarland was at the time and their numbers and level are way ahead of where Jason Garcia was at the time.

It does seem like they are putting more thought into it.  Garcia strikes me as a guy one scout saw in instructionals and thought, "wow this guy is pretty good" and they took a flyer on him even though he hadn't even seen A+ ball.  McFarland didn't have much upside, but he was a decent pick,  he provided the value of a 2/5m reliever for league minimum.  I think a lot of teams could benefit from trying more fringe starters as relievers.  Rickard strikes me as a guy who was picked by statistical analysis alone, I think anyone who saw his swing would be doubtful about his ability to hit for any power in the majors and most of his value was his BB rate and I don't know how you can project a good BB rate in the majors for a guy who won't hit for power.

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

It looks like his velocity took a serious step forward this year. From 91-93 in short shints to 92-95 over 80 pitches. He didn’t start getting long looks until late in the season Before this season he was a low 90s RH reliever with control issues. There are 100s of those guys. Now he’s a “starter” with a mid-90s fastball, a plus secondary, and solid control.  He’s not a lock to stick or anything, he may have trouble with really patient hitters but his changeup will miss MLB bats, and his fastball also plays.

He sounds like Brach might be a good ceiling/comp for him. Good enough secondaries to consider starting him but probably better out of the pen. 

I do like that he seems to be smart. Shaking off catchers. Using his change up. We’ve seen a ton of “throwers” recently. Seems like the three guys the O’s took all use their secondaries well. Must be a theme. 

I like Mike Wright, but he’s essentially a rule 5 guy because he’s out of options. It’s going to be a battle in ST. 

Thanks to phillyO’s for putting all these together. 

[Luke-OH]

10 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

You seem very knowledgable and dedicated to your studies. How would you grade our Rule V pickups and in your opinion what would be a fair and equitable return from St. Louis for Machado if they are in fact the leading contender to obtain him via trade? Thanks for taking the time. You are a real credit to this site with your efforts.

It's hard to figure out fair value on a trade like this, it depends on a team's projection of Machado for 2018, how a team values the draft pick they will get if Machado walks, and if they think adding him now would give them a better chance at extending/signing him long term.  The limited control and his 17m salary do limit the return some, but there is still some serious value since players like Manny are extremely rare and he's a good way for a team to consolidate talent.

So I'd ask for Alex Reyes, Jose Garcia, and Gyorko.  Reyes is the best player that might be availble in my opinion.  Yes, he's coming off TJS, but has the upside of the best pitcher in baseball.  Garcia is a Cuban OF with a huge arm, a solid bat and good speed.  Gyorko is a solid 3B replacement for Manny.

I'd probably accept Flaherty or Weaver, Gyorko, Helsey or Hicks, and Mercado  

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

You seem very knowledgable and dedicated to your studies. How would you grade our Rule V pickups and in your opinion what would be a fair and equitable return from St. Louis for Machado if they are in fact the leading contender to obtain him via trade? Thanks for taking the time. You are a real credit to this site with your efforts.

It's hard to determine the value Manny will bring that is fair  IMO. Manny has ten teams interested in his superstar services with one year of control and the chance to bid exclusively for 1 year.

i believe the Os will rake in 4-5 new prospects and should be better than the Ozuna deal based on the fact that 10 teams are interested, and Manny is not a salary dump. 

I think we can expect 2 of a teams top 10 and 2-3 other guys.

With the Cardinals I think the Orioles get 2 of their top 4 pitching prospects. Starting with Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, I think the Orioles would likely accept Gomber in place of Hudson due to the fact that he's as close to ready and is LH.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He sounds like Brach might be a good ceiling/comp for him. Good enough secondaries to consider starting him but probably better out of the pen. 

I do like that he seems to be smart. Shaking off catchers. Using his change up. We’ve seen a ton of “throwers” recently. Seems like the three guys the O’s took all use their secondaries well. Must be a theme. 

I like Mike Wright, but he’s essentially a rule 5 guy because he’s out of options. It’s going to be a battle in ST. 

Thanks to phillyO’s for putting all these together. 

His dad had a 20 year MLB career so I think he probably picked something up from him.  Mesa Jr. needs to improve fastball command and see a tick up in either slider or curveball to start in 2018.  It'll be interesting in spring training.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It's hard to determine the value Manny will bring that is fair  IMO. Manny has ten teams interested in his superstar services with one year of control and the chance to bid exclusively for 1 year.

i believe the Os will rake in 4-5 new prospects and should be better than the Ozuna deal based on the fact that 10 teams are interested, and Manny is not a salary dump. 

I think we can expect 2 of a teams top 10 and 2-3 other guys.

With the Cardinals I think the Orioles get 2 of their top 4 pitching prospects. Starting with Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, I think the Orioles would likely accept Gomber in place of Hudson due to the fact that he's as close to ready and is LH.

I like Hicks and Helsey better than Gomber or Hudson personally.  Reyes should be the #1 target if he is at all available, he's probably worth more than Flaherty, Hudson, and Gomber combined IMO.