Decision Checklist for the Orioles

[osfan83]

19 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I agree with the jist of what you are saying.  And I am at the front of the line of the: "There is no plan!" club.  I am careful however to not look to pass judgment because the Oriole onion is simply more complex than saying DD sucks or PA sucks or ...whatever.

But if you remember the Orioles' history from the 60's to now as I do, you surely understand that the Orioles were one of the best franchises in all of sports and now they kindly... are not.  In the 18 seasons between 1966 and 1983, the Orioles went to 6 WS, won 3 (Gave two of them away, but thats another rant) and in those 18 seasons they won the AL East 8 of 18 times, won 90 or more games in 14 of 18 seasons, including 5 years with 100+ wins, three of which were consecutive.

I point that out to remind you that in the entire history of the modern era, 1900 till now,  there are only two...TWO teams that have failed to win 40 games.  I am not going to assume there is a plan, regardless of the intelligent people I believe to be running the franchise.  I certainly do not feel the need to be on speed dial with any members of the Orioles Brass, but absent any simulation of the enacting of a plan, I am going to continue to question what that plan is...I am certainly not going to wait for a 30 some win season to raise my hand in concern.

I don't question the abilities of the Front Office, in fact I am frequently very supportive and continue to think DD specifically is overly criticized by fans in general and especially here.  I will simply say that this is a critical time for the franchise and until these extremely important questions are answered, it will be impossible to understand a plan.  More importantly until these questions are answered it will be impossible to really rate the Front Office tenure.

There is a silver lining, of course.  Given that so many of these questions answer themselves this year, what ever the plan is...the wait for knowing the direction is limited to this calendar year.  It is not the same as the glory days from 1966-1983, but that doesn't mean it can't work.

 

Absolutely Baltimore was a model franchise for all those years.  And yes the organization (in the context of wins and losses) is not at that level compared to their peers (although I will say free agency plays a big role in this...what if FRobby, Brooks and Palmer could have hit the free market in the 60's and 70's?). But I assure you, they have multiple plans, think though many scenarios, and have a pretty good idea of how their talent stacks up against the competition at every position......My best guess is PA is trying very hard to win a WS while he is alive, and he has one more year with a pretty talented core of position players. It may be unrealistic in our eyes....but that may be what Dan and his staff have been ordered to do, and he is trying to build multiple plans around that. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, twinedenter said:

While I agree with what your saying, you have to admit that the MAJORITY of the moves that this organization makes, not only makes us educated fans shake our head, but causes the same reaction to those of the media, who's job it is to follow this game. 

Not only do I not agree with the majority of the moves that they make, but am FAR from alone in my thinking. Many times it makes no sense. and appears to be a one off move.

IMO, there have been so many examples of there NOT being a true plan, I find it hard to believe there actually is one. If there is, it changes quite frequently.

You’re raising two different issues here (sometimes related, sometimes not):

1.   Individual moves making sense on their merits.

2.   Having a plan.

I’m not so sure I’d say I’ve disagreed with a majority of the Orioles’ individual decisions.   Rather, they’ve made some decisions that I strongly disagreed with.    

On the second point, I feel they’ve generally had a plan, but this winter it’s been very hard to discern one.    Things could turn out OK, but it’s pretty easy to see scenarios where the 2018 season ends in a disaster scenario.    

[El Gordo]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You’re raising two different issues here (sometimes related, sometimes not):

1.   Individual moves making sense on their merits.

2.   Having a plan.

I’m not so sure I’d say I’ve disagreed with a majority of the Orioles’ individual decisions.   Rather, they’ve made some decisions that I strongly disagreed with.    

On the second point, I feel they’ve generally had a plan, but this winter it’s been very hard to discern one.    Things could turn out OK, but it’s pretty easy to see scenarios where the 2018 season ends in a disaster scenario.    

I think they have a plan. It is to compete this season by acquiring SP. When they got trade offers for Manny they amended the plan to trade him for SP that enables them to compete. Now they are waiting for the market for FA SP to establish itself.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

It's January 2, 2018 and the Orioles have perhaps the most decisions to make of any team in baseball this offseason. They've made zero decisions at last count other than drafting Rule 5 players. Let's keep a running checklist, shall we?

-Dan Duquette's contract status after 2018

-Buck Showalter's contract status after 2018 

-Adam Jones: trade, extend, or ride out the contract? 

-Zach Britton: trade, release, or extend?

-Manny Machado: trade, extend, or ride out the contract?

-Jonathan Schoop: trade or extend?

-Rotation hole #3

-Rotation hole #4

-Rotation hole #5

-6th depth rotation piece other than Nestor Cortes

-Left-handed bat

-Trumbo: How does he fit on the roster?

-Bullpen depth piece

None of these things have been officially decided or announced as of 2:00 pm on 1/2/18. I'm not saying they need to announce or accomplish all of these. For example, we may never get an official announcement if Dan is planning to leave after 2018, but nevertheless, it's a potential decision that we as fans currently know nothing about officially. 

 

Good accountability list.  Don’t we also need a utility guy (who may have to play outfield in a pinch too) .

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, osfan83 said:

I've been a fan since my first memories in the late 60's....I know the Orioles are far from perfect, and have struggled at times at making great decisions. But it amazes me how often posters on this board think that front office staff of a Major League Baseball team doesn't have the business acumen of a 3rd grader selling lemonade. 

Yes, they have a plan...you may not agree with it, it might not be a plan that results in a WS, but they have a plan. Many people in the organization have graduated college and understand how to run a business.

Yes, they have access to advanced analytics and employ people who can interpret them. Billy Beene understands them too, and hasn't won a WS.

There are other things the team considers in addition to winning baseball games. Turning a profit is one of them. yes it may be easier to do with a WS winning team, but it can also be done without winning a WS.

No, the team isn't going to tell the fans everything...this doesn't mean they don't have a plan.

I might not like every move they make....but I'm quite sure everyone in the organization knows they need starting pitching, knows when the season starts, knows the contract status of the GM and field manager, knows the consequences of not trading Manny, and what trading/not trading Manny means to 2018 and beyond. 

When the O's put up several 30 win seasons in a row...then we can question if these guys have ever watched a baseball game or run a business in the past. 

No, I really can question their decisions and their ability all I want.  And I can be as sarcastically critical of them as I want too.   My love for the Orioles goes back to 1965 and that will always be true.  But I seperate my affection for the team from any loyalty to Peter Angelos, Dan Duquette, or management and ownership staff.   I am their customer....they have to put up with my demands, not the other way round.  

Sure, they are baseball executives, they have knowledge and skills.  But they are terrible communicators with their audience and fan base and that starts at the top with the reclusive, seldom seen owner.   Compare Angelos to Biscotti in terms of having annual State of the team public presentations with ownership participating. 

It is Potter’s team.  Clearly he does whatever the heck he wants to do and we fans can go jump in a lake as far as ownership is concerned.   But it does not mean I have to respect him or the flunkies he hires and then overrules.  Loyalty has kept all of us spending tons of dollars that have gone to Orioles family ownership and their stock holders and I do not begrudge them this.  But if I am not happy with the product being presented, then my entertainment dollars are likely going elsewhere.   And I sure as heck am going to criticize them in this forum. 

[MDtransplant757]

6 hours ago, MDK02 said:

I wonder what DD and company do on a day to day basis right now.. do they discuss any of this stuff.

I wonder if half the time DD is on Here and just sh*tposting just to troll OH users

[spiritof66]

While these are all (well, almost all) important matters that should be thought through,, decided and acted on yesterday, I think there are in reality only a few items on this list that might move forward before spring training. The "action items" are these:

       -Manny Machado: trade, extend, or ride out the contract? (And forget about the "extend" part.)
       -Rotation hole #3
       -Rotation hole #4
       -Rotation hole #5

It's looking more like the default position (call it a decision if you like) will be to keep Manny at least until the trade deadline. I'm not giving up on a trade, though, since there is no sign that the Orioles have moved on and are preparing for --  the season without a trade of Manny.

I think the Orioles, if they don't trade Manny for starting pitching, will wait around, try to identify two or three free-agent starters who don't land long-term contracts, and sign them to fairly high-priced but short-term deals.  I am guessing that possibly the #5 starter and probably the #6 guy will come from the talent already in the system (Gulp.) That takes care of:

          -6th depth rotation piece other than Nestor Cortes

The following items require the owner to make a decision. I believe the result is that  nothing will be done to move forward on them during the off-season, and the earliest time for any action will be late in the season, and more likely it will be after the season before anything happens. 

      -Dan Duquette's contract status after 2018
      -Buck Showalter's contract status after 2018
      -Adam Jones: trade, extend, or ride out the contract? 
      -Zach Britton: trade, release, or extend?
      -Jonathan Schoop: trade or extend?

The decision on Jones may come earlier if he gets vocal about it.

The following are items that Duquette and others are probably looking at. I don't think they're vital, and  it may be that they have been held up by the uncertainty over a Manny trade since they are pieces that might come back in such a trade.

       -Left-handed bat
       -Bullpen depth piece

Finally, Trumbo will be the regular DH unless Buck decides after a couple months he's so unproductive he can't put him out there any more. He will get some time at 1B against LHers if Davis becomes unplayable. If Trumbo really gets off to a hot start, maybe he becomes tradeable, but I doubt it. If there's a time you want Trumbo in your lineup, it's earl;y in the season.

I hope I'm wrong about this, but that's the way it looks to me. Pretty much the 2017 Orioles with the starting pitching  likely to be a little bit better only because it will be hard to find guys as bad as our 3 through 5/6 were last year. If things break our way, we could have a shot at 78-80 wins and third place, and we'll see some young guys later in the summer.  I can't remember the last time I had so little enthusiasm for an Orioles season to begin. 

 

[mdbdotcom]

Orioles officials are divided as to whether of not they should have a checklist. A decision is expected before spring training.

[SteveA]

15 hours ago, wildcard said:

Castro  is a candidate for the 6th/7th starter.

I don't see it that way.

He's clearly shown he deserves to be on the roster.

If they stretch him out in spring training to start... then he will be in the rotation barring injury.   So I believe he's a 5th starter candidate, not 6th or 7th.

If they don't stretch him out, he'll be in the pen.

[gtman55]

14 hours ago, osfan83 said:

My best guess is PA is trying very hard to win a WS while he is alive, and he has one more year with a pretty talented core of position players. 

I think you're right about Angelos wanting to win a WS. But, I think you're overrating our core of "talented" players. Look at MLB's top team rosters and I think you'll find we fall far short. And don't get me started on our anemic starting pitching.

[SeaBird]

17 hours ago, MDK02 said:

I wonder what DD and company do on a day to day basis right now.. do they discuss any of this stuff.

[wildcard]

54 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I don't see it that way.

He's clearly shown he deserves to be on the roster.

If they stretch him out in spring training to start... then he will be in the rotation barring injury.   So I believe he's a 5th starter candidate, not 6th or 7th.

If they don't stretch him out, he'll be in the pen.

Depends on who else Dan acquires.

[Justinlstn]

4 hours ago, gtman55 said:

I think you're right about Angelos wanting to win a WS. But, I think you're overrating our core of "talented" players. Look at MLB's top team rosters and I think you'll find we fall far short. And don't get me started on our anemic starting pitching.

 

I really don't get this impression from PA. I may be little negative in my assessment based on this off season but I feel PA is more concerned about his legacy controlling MASN and all the televised rights and all his other stances on salaries and such then he does about winning a WS. Now if all the pieces fall into place and were looking like the team to beat during deadline time then he might approve of a deal like the one where we got Andrew Miller but outside of that some of the moves we do just don't look like truly winning decisions. Jimenez, Gallardo, resigning Trumbo when you already have Davis? Not to mention all the fiasco that has led up to this dreadful off season. We just have too many holes to fill and too many questions mark. Even the most optimistic person has to be concerned.

[foxfield]

4 minutes ago, Justinlstn said:

 

I really don't get this impression from PA. I may be little negative in my assessment based on this off season but I feel PA is more concerned about his legacy controlling MASN and all the televised rights and all his other stances on salaries and such then he does about winning a WS. Now if all the pieces fall into place and were looking like the team to beat during deadline time then he might approve of a deal like the one where we got Andrew Miller but outside of that some of the moves we do just don't look like truly winning decisions. Jimenez, Gallardo, resigning Trumbo when you already have Davis? Not to mention all the fiasco that has led up to this dreadful off season. We just have too many holes to fill and too many questions mark. Even the most optimistic person has to be concerned.

Yes, Yes I am!!!!

[Mayor McCheese]

It really seems like that the club has no plan or idea of what they are doing.  They need to understand that a complete rebuild is necessary (if they are not going to extend Manny and Schoop) and that fans would be OK with that if they choose that direction. 

But in other news....

Did anyone else see Adam Jones cryptic twitter tirade a few weeks ago.....doesn't seem like he wants to be here anymore.  I know its probably reading a lot more into it then it should be but its not the first time, or the second time that he has acted like this on social media.