What’s the most you’d pay Jonathan Schoop on a six-year deal?

[Number5]

21 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Seems respondents are answering two separate questions. If the question is, "How much money would it require for Schoop to agree to a six-year deal?," then I think the answer starts at $100MM and goes up from there.

If the question is, "What is the most a person, acting as team General Manager, would offer Schoop to buy out two arb years and get four years beyond that?," then I could see someone answering $80MM to $90MM. But I think that just means they will not be singing him.

I think that my top offer if I were GM would depend partly on what type of ability I had to trade the player vs. what type of no-trade clause the player demands. So, between $105MM full no-trade clause for the player up to $120MM with no no-trade clause might get Schoop signed.

The emboldened is exactly the question.  The two arb. years remaining cannot be overlooked.  The Orioles are the only team that can sign Schoop now.  He is not a free agent.  If he would like the security of a longer term deal now, he can only do so with Baltimore, and it would definitely be for less than what a full market free agent contract would be.  No team extends a player with two arb, years remaining for top of the market free agent value.  There is no reason to do that.  Why take on that risk when you can just take the player thru the arb. process, then sign him in free agency two years later if he's healthy and still productive?  If the player wants the team to assume the injury risk, he signs for less.  Schoop has, in fact, already shown that he leans toward being conservative and opting for security.  Now, maybe his thinking has changed since he gave up 10% of his future earnings for a fixed guaranteed payment, but his having done so does show me that a reasonable extension may well be possible.

[TommyPickles]

I voted 90 million.  Looks like a of of people said the same.  I think that's a fair price, especially considering we're buying two of his arbitration years.  Maybe he'll get higher, but the O's should really put that contract in front of him this offseason and make he and his agent say no to it.

 

 

[TradeAngelos]

On 1/14/2018 at 10:51 AM, Frobby said:

Jon Shepherd of Camden Depot says Schoop is worth between $71 and $86 mm on a 5-year deal, and between $114 and $133 mm on a 7 year deal.    So I guess that means between $92 and $110 mm on a 6-year deal.    http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2018/01/extending-jonathan-schoopor-not.html?m=1

So if you lock him up for 6/100 he needs to produce only about 10 wins factoring in inflation (probably less actually), and he had 5 last year alone as a 25 year old. There isn't a more no brainer that I can think of, other than Machado. 

And I bet they haven't even had a conversation, just like Machado. 

 

 

[Dark Helmet]

I voted 6/85 because I think that's fair. Wouldn't be opposed to 6/90 though.

[LA2]

On January 5, 2018 at 9:18 AM, Frobby said:

The Indians are still at it, and doing a good job of it.   For example, last winter they signed Jose Ramirez, who was still a year away from arbitration, to a 5 year, $26 mm deal, with two team options at $11 and $13 mm.     So effectively, they’ve signed him for 7/$50 mm through his age 30 season.    Meanwhile, he was worth 6.9 rWAR last year, and 14 rWAR in his career.

They also signed Kipnis before the 2014 season to a 6 year, $52.5 mm deal with a team option at $16.5 mm.   That deal also was signed a year before Kipnis was eligible for arbitration.

They also signed Kluber to a 5-year, $38.5 mm deal before the 2015 season, with two team options at $13.5 and $14 mm.   That deal also was done a year before Kluber was eligible for arbitration.    

Now imagine what these guys would be pulling down in free agency, or even what their deals would look like if signed 1-2 years before free agency.     Kluber would be a year away from free agency now.    What would he be demanding, 7/$200 mm or so?

 

Excellent work by the Indians. I hope the O's learn from it.

[Frobby]

Melewski asking today if you’d bite on a 5/$86 mm deal for Schoop (including this year) structured as follows: 

2018: $8.5 mm

2019: $14 mm

2020: $18 mm

2021: $22 mm

2022: $24 mm

Personally, I think that’s too rich.   Interestingly, a few weeks ago, Melewski had proposed 5/$83 mm, starting at $9 mm and topping out at $22 mm.    I’m not sure why he’s increased his suggestion, considering Schoop has settled at less than the $9 mm Melewski had suggested as the starting point (this was before Schoop’s arb demand was known).   

New proposal:  http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/02/can-the-orioles-now-take-the-next-step-with-schoop.html

Old proposal: http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/01/what-a-jonathan-schoop-contract-extension-might-look-like.html

[maybenxtyr]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Melewski asking today if you’d bite on a 5/$86 mm deal for Schoop (including this year) structured as follows: 

2018: $8.5 mm

2019: $14 mm

2020: $18 mm

2021: $22 mm

2022: $24 mm

Personally, I think that’s too rich.   Interestingly, a few weeks ago, Melewski had proposed 5/$83 mm, starting at $9 mm and topping out at $22 mm.    I’m not sure why he’s increased his suggestion, considering Schoop has settled at less than the $9 mm Melewski had suggested as the starting point (this was before Schoop’s arb demand was known).   

New proposal:  http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/02/can-the-orioles-now-take-the-next-step-with-schoop.html

Old proposal: http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/01/what-a-jonathan-schoop-contract-extension-might-look-like.html

I agree, that is a bit high. 6 for $86 seems a bit more reasonable.

[wildcard]

If I am Jonathan the deal would have to be an overpay.  He doesn't know who his manager will be.  He doesn't know who his GM will be.  4 of the veterans may walk next year including his best friend.  The rotation is Bundy and Gausman and pray for rain.  There is no way to know if the team will be good in the future.

[interloper]

56 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If I am Jonathan the deal would have to be an overpay.  He doesn't know who his manager will be.  He doesn't know who his GM will be.  4 of the veterans may walk next year including his best friend.  The rotation is Bundy and Gausman and pray for rain.  There is no way to know if the team will be good in the future.

God, this x infinity. There's so much unknown about the future of the organization much less the roster. It's insane they've let it get to this point. How can anyone make an educated decision about staying here? Or coming here in FA?

[Frobby]

Some random points about Schoop:    

He debuted at the end of 2013.    Of the 230 players who debuted that year,  he was the 10th-youngest as of his debut, at 21 years, 344 days.    He now ranks 18th in total rWAR from that class, at 10.1.

My guess is that Schoop will finish significantly higher than 18th from the class of 2013.    First, he debuted very late in the season, whereas some of the guys ahead of him played close to a full year.    Second, he was very young for his class; of the 17 guys ahead of him, only 5 were younger when they debuted (J. Fernandez, Bogaerts, J. Ramirez, C. Martin, and Yelich).    My guess is he’ll end up somewhere between 10th and 15th from his class.   (Unfortunately, one of the players ahead of him, Fernandez, is deceased now.)

To give an idea what that would equate to, from the class of 1998 the 10th-highest player produced 28.5 rWAR, 15th was 24.6, 18th was 21.9.   From the class of ‘99, 10th was 27.0, 15th was 18.5, 18th  was 15.5.    (That ‘99 class was thin.)

Here’s the list of 2013 debuts.    Where do you think Schoop ends up on this list when they all hang ‘em up?   https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-debuts.shtml