Manny ranked the no. 8 3B “right now” by MLB Network; Beckham ranked no. 10 SS

[weams]

5 hours ago, thatbearflies said:

One key area of focus of the discussion (I just watched it) was definitely that there is an uncertainty about Manny Machado. They emphasized how bad his numbers were at the beginning of the season and then how good he was in the middle, only to fall off again at the end. And realistically, in terms of the end of the season, I am not going to really evaluate it because I really think the offense checked out because of the pitching. It's a flawed offense, for sure, but I think battling all season and just going through those pitching performances every day wore them down the same way it wore us down. 

I'm sort of with their evaluation (shredder), but only because I can't say that Machado is going to be GREAT next season. I I think for a lot of us, we feel like (baseball is never guaranteed) we know what Trout is going to do, Donaldson, Bryant, etc. We can hope against it sometimes, but we have an expectation. When it comes to Machado, I don't know. He hit a lot of hard balls at the beginning of last season. Do those fall this season instead of turning it outs? Does he put on a more consistent performance or does he have extended periods of the season where he disappears offensively? If the pitching improves, does he remain more engaged throughout the entire season? I don't know. I think watching him every night and seeing what he can be, it causes your perception to skew upwards (thus the fans putting him #2). But is perception reality? I think as everyone else has said, I can't see $300 million. 

Also interesting (and I missed the guy's name so someone can hopefully help me out there), the one guy they brought on seemed very negative about Machado wanting to be shortstop. The gist that I took away was he felt Machado needs to make a decision about do you want to be a big, strong, power guy or a shortstop because you can't do both. That was interesting because, of course, I don't spend much time thinking about his physiology because I am too busy trying to mentally channel him into staying at third because I love watching his defense there. Either way, fun discussion and I think at the end of the day, what the show really said about Machado is, we don't really know where he belongs on the list. 

Front Page, Thanks. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Trout and Harper's minor league numbers destroy Manny's at the same age/level. And they have been better hitters in MLB.

Did anybody ever claim Manny is or was going to be as good a hitter as Trout or Harper, or make as much money as those two?

Let’s be clear about one thing: Trout’s on a whole different planet than either Harper or Manny.

Trout (through 2016, 5.070 years of service): 811 games, 48.5 rWAR, 167 OPS+

Harper (through 2017, 5.159 years of service): 768 games, 26.1 rWAR, 140 OPS+.

Machado (through 2017, 5.056 years of service): 764 games, 27.9 rWAR, 116 OPS+.

Nobody is near where Trout is.    Manny’s not as good a hitter as Harper, but his value is close to Harper’s, arguably higher, because of his defense.    I expect Harper to make more than Manny because (1) offense pays better than defense, and (2) GM’s will dream on Harper’s  9.9 rWAR 2015 season, thinking there could be more of them if he ever stays healthy.    But Manny’s going to get paid very well, thank you.  

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Did anybody ever claim Manny is or was going to be as good a hitter as Trout or Harper, or make as much money as those two?

Let’s be clear about one thing: Trout’s on a whole different planet than either Harper or Manny.

Trout (through 2016, 5.070 years of service): 811 games, 48.5 rWAR, 167 OPS+

Harper (through 2017, 5.159 years of service): 768 games, 26.1 rWAR, 140 OPS+.

Machado (through 2017, 5.056 years of service): 764 games, 27.9 rWAR, 116 OPS+.

Nobody is near where Trout is.    Manny’s not as good a hitter as Harper, but his value is close to Harper’s, arguably higher, because of his defense.    I expect Harper to make more than Manny because (1) offense pays better than defense, and (2) GM’s will dream on Harper’s  9.9 rWAR 2015 season, thinking there could be more of them if he ever stays healthy.    But Manny’s going to get paid very well, thank you.  

I was not arguing against anyone. Just stated my opinion that I am not sold on Manny's offense considering his MLB body of work, with minor league numbers also a consideration, and that is the biggest factor arguing for him as a top 5-10 3B. And also as I said, if anyone argued that Manny is #1, I would not disagree. 

[mdbdotcom]

Any rankings that rate Beckham higher than Gregorius at SS needs to be regarded with serious skepticism. 

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

This is beyond stupid. It's fning ludicrous LOL

This is not how we communicate with each other here in this community. There's a better way to disagree. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Any rankings that rate Beckham higher than Gregorius at SS needs to be regarded with serious skepticism. 

I can envision scenarios where Beckham turns out to be better, but it’s hard to see how he could be ranked higher at this stage.   

[wildbillhiccup]

9 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Trout and Harper's minor league numbers destroy Manny's at the same age/level. And they have been better hitters in MLB.

You're comparing apples to oranges. Trout and Harper are great players, but there aren't many players that offer the kind of defensive and offensive production that Machado does at 3B. And I'd venture to say moving him to SS would also help that argument even more. 

That said, Trout is in a league of his own, but I'm not willing to put Harper ahead of Machado. He can't stay healthy / on the field and that's a problem that unlikely to solve itself with age. 

[Tony-OH]

First off this is a really good conversation with a lot of good points. Kudos to all involved.

As Orioles fan, we watch Manny every day and we know how good a player he can be. We also know he's one of the best, if not best talent the Orioles have drafted and developed in their history. I believe that tends to have us over value where he falls in baseball among the other great players.

On the plus side, Manny is one of the best defensive third baseman's of all-time in my opinion and that inflates his value over his very good, but not great offensive numbers. Since he had the last knee surgery, he's been very durable and has played in 156 or more games over the last three seasons. He's young at 25 years old next season and there's a good chance he's going to get better not worse over the next 3-5 seasons at the very least.

Saying all that, if you look at things objectively, he might not be a top five 3B RIGHT NOW in the MLB. As many of you have discussed already there's a great amount of talent at the position. Now most rankings are an opinion based endeavor so that's why we see so much discrepancy on where Machado falls on the lists. I know I could build a case for him to be anywhere from 3-8 on the list, but coming off a down year it's not surprising to see him down on the lower end of that range by some people. Of course it's not a conspiracy or someone holding a grudge against him for whatever reason, it's just that the guy is coming off a year in which he put up a 3.5 rWAR that included a career worse (over a full season) 1.0 dWAR.

Career wise, Machado only has a .329 OBP in 3365 PAs and his plate discipline has fallen off as he's tried to add those long home runs to his highlight films. It's well known he's not a guy that takes much coaching nor does he do a lot of extra work when things are going bad, so it's easy to see him starting to get a reputation as a guy who is satisfied with his numbers and might not fulfill his immense talent. Add in the fact that his playoffs numbers in 27 PAs (.174/.240/.348/.588) are not very good and it's not like he has a calling card of bringing his A game in big moments. Now small sample size for sure, but again, I think those things all have to be taken into consideration when talking the best in the game.

Machado is a really good player and I'd love for him to spend his whole career in an Orioles uniform, but I think Machado is the guy that is more worried about making the most money he can versus wanting to leave behind a legacy. I could be wrong, but in the end, I think the Orioles need to trade him for as much as they can whether that's now or before the trade deadline (sometimes teams will overpay when they think they have a shot at a World Series). 

 

 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Add in the fact that his playoffs numbers in 27 PAs (.174/.240/.348/.588) are not very good and it's not like he has a calling card of bringing his A game in big moments. Now small sample size for sure, but again, I think those things all have to be taken into consideration when talking the best in the game.

6 of his 7 playoff games were as a rookie who had been in the majors for two months, so I’m not really going to consider his playoff performance as relevant.   

[Aristotelian]

56 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You're comparing apples to oranges. Trout and Harper are great players, but there aren't many players that offer the kind of defensive and offensive production that Machado does at 3B. And I'd venture to say moving him to SS would also help that argument even more. 

That said, Trout is in a league of his own, but I'm not willing to put Harper ahead of Machado. He can't stay healthy / on the field and that's a problem that unlikely to solve itself with age. 

You are making my case. Offensively, Manny is not in that league. (Defensively, Harper is not in Manny's). Trout is a complete player. Manny is not in that echelon. Usually the top player at a position is in the great to world-historical range in both offense and defense. Arenado, Bryant, and Donaldson pretty clearly are. Manny is in that second tier of great but flawed players.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Machado is a really good player and I'd love for him to spend his whole career in an Orioles uniform, but I think Machado is the guy that is more worried about making the most money he can versus wanting to leave behind a legacy. I could be wrong, but in the end, I think the Orioles need to trade him for as much as they can whether that's now or before the trade deadline (sometimes teams will overpay when they think they have a shot at a World Series). 

 

 

Great posts and points Tony. The only think I'd add is that I'm not sure he still can't do both (i.e., make the most money and leave behind a legacy). He's still young enough where people might quickly forget about his Oriole's days if he plays for the same team for the next 10 years. I also think the days of players spending their entire career with one team are all but over. 

[theocean]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You are making my case. Offensively, Manny is not in that league. (Defensively, Harper is not in Manny's). Trout is a complete player. Manny is not in that echelon. Usually the top player at a position is in the great to world-historical range in both offense and defense. Arenado, Bryant, and Donaldson pretty clearly are. Manny is in that second tier of great but flawed players.

Manny is great - but I agree: Arenado, Bryant, Donaldson are superior players. If you count Jose Ramirez as a third baseman - I think he's better too. Then, there's also Rendon, Lamb, Bregman, Turner, Moustakas - even Longoria and Seager. Third base is loaded with talent right now. Machado isn't the Buster Posey of his position.

I'm not sure Machado is even a top five shortstop with Correa, Lindor, Seager, Simmons, and Turner out there, too.

[Il BuonO]

None of the guys ranked ahead of Machado at 3B are better defensively except Arenado.

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

First off this is a really good conversation with a lot of good points. Kudos to all involved.

As Orioles fan, we watch Manny every day and we know how good a player he can be. We also know he's one of the best, if not best talent the Orioles have drafted and developed in their history. I believe that tends to have us over value where he falls in baseball among the other great players.

On the plus side, Manny is one of the best defensive third baseman's of all-time in my opinion and that inflates his value over his very good, but not great offensive numbers. Since he had the last knee surgery, he's been very durable and has played in 156 or more games over the last three seasons. He's young at 25 years old next season and there's a good chance he's going to get better not worse over the next 3-5 seasons at the very least.

Saying all that, if you look at things objectively, he might not be a top five 3B RIGHT NOW in the MLB. As many of you have discussed already there's a great amount of talent at the position. Now most rankings are an opinion based endeavor so that's why we see so much discrepancy on where Machado falls on the lists. I know I could build a case for him to be anywhere from 3-8 on the list, but coming off a down year it's not surprising to see him down on the lower end of that range by some people. Of course it's not a conspiracy or someone holding a grudge against him for whatever reason, it's just that the guy is coming off a year in which he put up a 3.5 rWAR that included a career worse (over a full season) 1.0 dWAR.

Career wise, Machado only has a .329 OBP in 3365 PAs and his plate discipline has fallen off as he's tried to add those long home runs to his highlight films. It's well known he's not a guy that takes much coaching nor does he do a lot of extra work when things are going bad, so it's easy to see him starting to get a reputation as a guy who is satisfied with his numbers and might not fulfill his immense talent. Add in the fact that his playoffs numbers in 27 PAs (.174/.240/.348/.588) are not very good and it's not like he has a calling card of bringing his A game in big moments. Now small sample size for sure, but again, I think those things all have to be taken into consideration when talking the best in the game.

Machado is a really good player and I'd love for him to spend his whole career in an Orioles uniform, but I think Machado is the guy that is more worried about making the most money he can versus wanting to leave behind a legacy. I could be wrong, but in the end, I think the Orioles need to trade him for as much as they can whether that's now or before the trade deadline (sometimes teams will overpay when they think they have a shot at a World Series). 

 

 

I agree with you Tony. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

None of the guys ranked ahead of Machado at 3B are better defensively except Arenado.

And that’s a toss-up.    Bryant in particular is not a spectacular defender from what I hear.    

Manny’s hitting free agency at a super-young age, which is the main reason he’ll make so much money.