Manny ranked the no. 8 3B “right now” by MLB Network; Beckham ranked no. 10 SS

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

Manny has a history of outslugging Mike Trout in the playoffs.

But Trout has a better OPS .600 vs .588.  

[backwardsk]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But Trout has a better OPS .600 vs .588.  

That's why I chose not to say "outhit". 

[osfan83]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Again, I don't think teams are going to drop his value because of what he did mostly at 19, but if he had that feather in his cap his value would be much more in my opinion. Basically he's a post season unknown. Of course his career .240/.296/.406/.702 slash line in 611 Sep/Oct PAs could be an indicator of a guy who either gets tired late in the year or who doesn't do well in pennant races (the Orioles have been in the mix in September for most of his career).

If I'm giving a guy $300 million i want to make sure he's at his best when the lights are the brightest.

Can a player really do that? Can they "make" themselves better in the playoffs? And if so, why don't they "make" themselves better all the time? 

I think playoff success for a player is as random as August success. Do we really look at players and say "that guys just raises his game between August 10th and 23rd every year"? 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

Can a player really do that? Can they "make" themselves better in the playoffs? And if so, why don't they "make" themselves better all the time? 

I thinks playoff success for a player is as random as August success. Do we really look at players and say "that guys just raises his game between August 10th and 23rd every year"? 

It’s one of those age old questions.   I’d say you can’t really make yourself better, but you might be able to make yourself worse by pressing, trying to do too much, etc.

I picked out 10 guys I could think of who probably had about the most playoff at bats of anyone over the last 25 years (I’m sure I forgot some).     Here’s their career OPS vs. playoff OPS, and how many PA they had in the postseason.

Jeter (734 PA): .817/.838

B. Williams (545 PA): .858/.850

M. Ramirez (493 PA): .996/.937

Posada (492 PA): .848/.745

C. Jones (417 PA): .930/.864

T. Martinez (405 PA): .815/.672

Ortiz (369 PA): .931/.947

A. Jones (279 PA): .823/.796

Bonds (208 PA): 1.051/.936

You have to keep in mind that the quality of pitchers is higher in the playoffs, and of course there’s noise here regarding whether a player was in the playoffs in his best offensive years, etc.

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, osfan83 said:

Can a player really do that? Can they "make" themselves better in the playoffs? And if so, why don't they "make" themselves better all the time? 

I think playoff success for a player is as random as August success. Do we really look at players and say "that guys just raises his game between August 10th and 23rd every year"? 

I guess it depends on whether you think baseball players are robots rather than human. There is always going to be a human element to the game. Some players react better to pressure situations than others. That's why some guys can close while others are better in the 7th or 8th inning even with better stuff sometimes. That's why some guys are considered "clutch" while other are considered garbage time players. I don't think it always shows up in stats consistently because these situations vary a lot more than how many outs or players in scoring position or even the true value of a game. But the special players seem to rise to the occasion more often.

 

 

[brooksfrankjim]

On 1/15/2018 at 4:03 PM, Frobby said:

The guy is 25 and has been worth $201 mm in less than 6 years per fangraphs.   He’s going to get $300 mm easily barring something catastrophic happening this year.   

The free agent market this year, so far, hasn't produced any big deals.  I do believe teams are getting smarter about how money is being spent based on the data analytics they perform.  What percentage of $200m+ contracts have proven worth it?  Same with $100m+?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, brooksfrankjim said:

The free agent market this year, so far, hasn't produced any big deals.  I do believe teams are getting smarter about how money is being spent based on the data analytics they perform.  What percentage of $200m+ contracts have proven worth it?  Same with $100m+?

You can find my breakdown of that here:  

There aren’t any players of Manny’s age and caliber on the market this year, so I don’t think it means anything at all that this year’s market is slow.   

[brooksfrankjim]

Thank you for sharing the info.  Much appreciated.

[Bradysburns]

On 1/14/2018 at 8:48 AM, Frobby said:

These lists are probably more rational than the so-called Shredder.    Still, they point up that Manny is not head and shoulders above everyone else.    There’s a ton of talent at 3B, which is another reason his trade value may not be as high as the Orioles had hoped.  

I don't watch a lot of non-Orioles baseball. So I generally only watch third basemen from our division or whoever we're playing. Are there really that many guys with Manny's defensive range, or even close?

And we know that when Manny's swinging well, it's a sight to behold.

A couple years ago they were talking about him as the best in the Majors. He's basically the same guy now -- no major injuries, no setbacks. He had a down season. Almost every superstar player does. 

If the Orioles can't make their trading partners understand, it sounds like they're going to get fleeced. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

I don't watch a lot of non-Orioles baseball. So I generally only watch third basemen from our division or whoever we're playing. Are there really that many guys with Manny's defensive range, or even close?

And we know that when Manny's swinging well, it's a sight to behold.

A couple years ago they were talking about him as the best in the Majors. He's basically the same guy now -- no major injuries, no setbacks. He had a down season. Almost every superstar player does. 

If the Orioles can't make their trading partners understand, it sounds like they're going to get fleeced. 

Defensively, only Arenado rivals Manny on a consistent basis (Beltre did for a long time).    But there are a number of guys who can match or even top Manny with the bat.   

[Bradysburns]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Defensively, only Arenado rivals Manny on a consistent basis (Beltre did for a long time).    But there are a number of guys who can match or even top Manny with the bat.   

Manny is better than Brooks was at this age -- certainly on the offensive side. And he's comparable defensively. 

If he stays on that trajectory, he's going to be an HOF player. 

As recently as last offseason, MLB listed him as the #3 third basemen in the league. If he has a good year this year, he'll be back up there. 

Bottom line, he can make a significant impact on a team's playoff chances by himself, IMO. He did that here, and mostly with the defense. That should be enough to sell teams on a blockbuster trade. But only the Orioles...

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

Manny is better than Brooks was at this age -- certainly on the offensive side. And he's comparable defensively. 

If he stays on that trajectory, he's going to be an HOF player. 

As recently as last offseason, MLB listed him as the #3 third basemen in the league. If he has a good year this year, he'll be back up there. 

Bottom line, he can make a significant impact on a team's playoff chances by himself, IMO. He did that here, and mostly with the defense. That should be enough to sell teams on a blockbuster trade. But only the Orioles...

Not only the Orioles.   One year of Manny simply doesn’t bring back that much.    

[Il BuonO]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not only the Orioles.   One year of Manny simply doesn’t bring back that much.    

Right. 

Not in a strong position to bargain.

[davearm]

The $16M is also not insignificant, particularly in the climate we're seeing right now around baseball.

Not hard to imagine a team might prefer to have Machado for 1/3 of the regular season (plus all of the postseason) for ~$5.5M.

Ultimately, I don't see a return similar to McCutchen or JD Martinez coming anywhere close to getting Angelos to sign off on.  But that seems to be the market.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Bradysburns said:

Manny is better than Brooks was at this age -- certainly on the offensive side. And he's comparable defensively. 

I'm not so sure I agree.  Brooks was an offensive force, as well as a defensive superstar, in his mid-to-late 20's.  OPS+ in his age 25-31 years was 126, 91, 145, 124, 123, 124, 117.  His age 26 season in 1963 was the anomaly, not the norm.  Manny may well outperform Brooks in the coming years offensively, but I don't think it is quite a foregone conclusion.  Do you?