Are There Three Internal SP Candidates

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Right, there was not equivalent to what Bundy,  Gausman and Harvey might become.

So far as I’m concerned, you’re mixing apples and oranges.    Gausman debuted in the majors in 2013 and has 129 big league games (106 starts under his belt).    Bundy for practical purposes debuted in 2016 (we’ll forget about his pre-injury cup of coffee in 2012) and has pitched 66 games (42 starts).    They’ve got nothing to do with our minor league system at this point.    Harvey, on the other hand, hasn’t pitched above low A.    He’s a very good, though inexperienced, minor league prospect.   He’s not a priori a better prospect going into 2018 than Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta were going into 2009.

Going into ‘09, we had four starters who had pitched extremely well in AA the year before (Tillman, Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken).     All four of them made their major league debut in 2009, plus Matusz, who had been the highest pitcher in the draft and then dominated in A+ and AA in the first 4 months of ‘09.    We simply don’t have that now.    

[crawjo]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not talking about Bundy and Gausman, I’m talking about guys in the minors now.    I do hope that Bundy and Gausman outproduce the guys I named.     

I think Bundy and Gausman have already outpitched most of them. Arrieta obviously went on to great things but much too late for us. Matusz was a bust, as was Berken and Bergesen after his rookie season. And of course Britton couldn't stick as a starter either. I'd say Bundy and Gausman have already had more success as starters than that group.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, crawjo said:

I think Bundy and Gausman have already outpitched most of them. Arrieta obviously went on to great things but much too late for us. Matusz was a bust, as was Berken and Bergesen after his rookie season. And of course Britton couldn't stick as a starter either. I'd say Bundy and Gausman have already had more success as starters than that group.

Tillman is the one they need to surpass.  

[Orioles1954]

1948 Boston Braves: "Spahn and Sain; then pray for rain."

2018 Baltimore Orioles: "Gausman and Bundy; then who's pitching Sunday?

[OriolesMagic83]

I wonder if someone like Wells would get a look.  He had an amazing stretch of innings w/o a walk.  I can't remember how long.  He's like the anti-Ubaldo. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 1/15/2018 at 5:02 PM, mdbdotcom said:

I'll be surprised if Tillman is on a major league roster after spring training. I think he's done.

 

On 1/15/2018 at 6:21 PM, mdbdotcom said:

I don't know what he's going to get, I just don't think he'll make a major league roster. 

You seem to forgot he's a nugget.  #ourace

If Tillman isn't signed by the time pitchers & catchers report, I can't see the O's not giving him at least a milb deal.

 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I wonder if someone like Wells would get a look.  He had an amazing stretch of innings w/o a walk.  I can't remember how long.  He's like the anti-Ubaldo. 

I think it's just short of 70 innings. 

He also hasn't even seen A+ ball. He needs time, probably two more seasons since his game is reliant on being a step ahead of hitters, and I guarantee that at his age and experience he would not be ahead of MLB hitters right now.  It took half the season for him to figure out Low A hitters (he gave up a bunch of HRs in the first half).

[weams]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it's just short of 70 innings. 

He also hasn't even seen A+ ball. He needs time, probably two more seasons since his game is reliant on being a step ahead of hitters, and I guarantee that at his age and experience he would not be ahead of MLB hitters right now.  It took half the season for him to figure out Low A hitters (he gave up a bunch of HRs in the first half).

I will be great if he pitches someday in the major leagues. I wonder how Ubaldo would do in AA?

[MDtransplant757]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it's just short of 70 innings. 

He also hasn't even seen A+ ball. He needs time, probably two more seasons since his game is reliant on being a step ahead of hitters, and I guarantee that at his age and experience he would not be ahead of MLB hitters right now.  It took half the season for him to figure out Low A hitters (he gave up a bunch of HRs in the first half).

I think he'd should be at least 3 years away. 

[jabba72]

Ynoa, Asher are the two most likley candidates.Unless one of the Rule 5 picks looks great. I've heard Buck mention Hess when talking about options for 18. After that it gets murkier. 

[Luke-OH]

35 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Ynoa, Asher are the two most likley candidates.Unless one of the Rule 5 picks looks great. I've heard Buck mention Hess when talking about options for 18. After that it gets murkier. 

Let's pretend Nestor Cortes isn't a rule 5 pick for a second.

Ok, so in that case, the Orioles have a guy who...

Threw 63 innings of 2.26 ERA ball in 2015 as a 20yo in short season ball.

Threw 106 innings of 1.53 ERA ball in 2016 as a 21yo split between low A and A+ ball.

Threw 104 innings of 2.06 ERA ball in 2017 as a 22yo split between AA and AAA.

The Orioles didn't have one pitcher in AAA who was 22 years old for any of 2017.

He's struck out more than a batter per inning on average and his HR/9 innings pitched is a minuscule 0.38 in his last two seasons. (for comparison, the lowest in the majors in 2017 among pitchers with 100+ innings was 0.60)

If this guy had been acquired any other way, a lot of people would be excited about trying him in the rotation.

Now, don't get me wrong, there are reasons to question whether he'll be as successful as a major league player from a scouting perspective and he's hard to project because he's such a weird pitcher. 

But the guy has done nothing except pitch exceptionally.

[LA2]

16 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Let's pretend Nestor Cortes isn't a rule 5 pick for a second.

Ok, so in that case, the Orioles have a guy who...

Threw 63 innings of 2.26 ERA ball in 2015 as a 20yo in short season ball.

Threw 106 innings of 1.53 ERA ball in 2016 as a 21yo split between low A and A+ ball.

Threw 104 innings of 2.06 ERA ball in 2017 as a 22yo split between AA and AAA.

The Orioles didn't have one pitcher in AAA who was 22 years old for any of 2017.

He's struck out more than a batter per inning on average and his HR/9 innings pitched is a minuscule 0.38 in his last two seasons. (for comparison, the lowest in the majors in 2017 among pitchers with 100+ innings was 0.60)

If this guy had been acquired any other way, a lot of people would be excited about trying him in the rotation.

Now, don't get me wrong, there are reasons to question whether he'll be as successful as a major league player from a scouting perspective and he's hard to project because he's such a weird pitcher. 

But the guy has done nothing except pitch exceptionally.

What is weird about his pitching? Haven't heard about it.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, LA2 said:

What is weird about his pitching? Haven't heard about it.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2017/11/30/rule-5-target-nestor-cortes-lhp/

This is the report on him I did before the Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 draft.  He was one of my top targets for the draft.  Read at least the delivery section.  Basically, he changes the way he delivers the ball from pitch to pitch more than anyone in the majors.  

[jabba72]

20 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Let's pretend Nestor Cortes isn't a rule 5 pick for a second.

Ok, so in that case, the Orioles have a guy who...

Threw 63 innings of 2.26 ERA ball in 2015 as a 20yo in short season ball.

Threw 106 innings of 1.53 ERA ball in 2016 as a 21yo split between low A and A+ ball.

Threw 104 innings of 2.06 ERA ball in 2017 as a 22yo split between AA and AAA.

The Orioles didn't have one pitcher in AAA who was 22 years old for any of 2017.

He's struck out more than a batter per inning on average and his HR/9 innings pitched is a minuscule 0.38 in his last two seasons. (for comparison, the lowest in the majors in 2017 among pitchers with 100+ innings was 0.60)

If this guy had been acquired any other way, a lot of people would be excited about trying him in the rotation.

Now, don't get me wrong, there are reasons to question whether he'll be as successful as a major league player from a scouting perspective and he's hard to project because he's such a weird pitcher. 

But the guy has done nothing except pitch exceptionally.

 

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2017/11/30/rule-5-target-nestor-cortes-lhp/

This is the report on him I did before the Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 draft.  He was one of my top targets for the draft.  Read at least the delivery section.  Basically, he changes the way he delivers the ball from pitch to pitch more than anyone in the majors.  

After reading your scouting report im not as optimistic as I was after your first reply. I guess being a LHP gives him a huge edge to stay in the rotation, I just wonder how hit-able he'll be. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, jabba72 said:

 

After reading your scouting report im not as optimistic as I was after your first reply. I guess being a LHP gives him a huge edge to stay in the rotation, I just wonder how hit-able he'll be. 

Well, that's why I said he's a hard guy to project, he really is. I mean who do you compare him to.  He has Vidal Nuno stuff or worse, but he does a ton of crazy, deceptive things that make the stuff play up to the point where he hasn't been hittable at all in the minors, even being young for his level.

I try to be super realistic in my reports and not overplay someone's chances.  I liked Cortes enough to rank him the top LHP available in the Rule 5 draft, and the second best SP option behind Burch Smith (who I really like and I think should do well for the Royals this year).

Cautiously optimistic is probably the right place to be on Cortes.