Does signing Vargas, Cashner and (Tillman to an incentive contract) make the O's a wild card contender?

[backwardsk]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where are these projections coming from?    If achieved we’d save about 116 runs which is worth 11-12 wins.    So yes, that would put us in the hunt.    But those projections are very optimistic IMO.

I'm not advocating signing them, but that is Vargas' career ERA, and very close to what he put up last year.  It's close to a half run worse than Cashner's career ERA, close to a full run worse than 2017.  Tillman is all about health (I have no reason to believe he's healthy).  I wouldn't put those three in the very optimistic bucket.  They are realistic, imo.

[Frobby]

Just now, backwardsk said:

I'm not advocating signing them, but that is Vargas' career ERA, and very close to what he put up last year.  It's close to a half run worse than Cashner's career ERA, close to a full run worse than 2017.  Tillman is all about health (I have no reason to believe he's healthy).  I wouldn't put those three in the very optimistic bucket.  They are realistic.

Vargas’ career ERA+ is 96, which translates to about 4.38 pitching for Baltimore.    He’s 35 and I think even reaching 4.38 is optimistic.   

Cashner’s career ERA+ is 102, which translates to about 4.24 in Baltimore.

As to Tillman, if he’s healthy I think he could beat 5.12 handily.     But if he’s not, he’s not a major league pitcher   We saw that last year.

I’m not saying it’s imposible that those three would combine for a 4.48 ERA, but I’d put the odds at 20% at best.    Just my opinion.

[mdbdotcom]

It's not hard to imagine Cashner becoming the next Gallardo and Vargas the next Wiley should they join the O's. 

Some here seem to forget that Gallardo had a 3.42 ERA in over 180 innings with the Rangers the season before signing with the O's.  And Miley's ERA with Seattle was just under 5.00 when we traded for him, but 6.17 for the rest of 2016 once he joined the O's.

It's not like DD went out and signed lousy pitchers. But he did acquire pitchers who were done. Cashner's strikeout rate dropped from 7.6/9 in '16 to 4.6/9 in ''17. This should be a very red flag. Vargas will turn 35 in 2 weeks. Who knows how much he has in the tank? Both could be fine, or both could be really bad.

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where are these projections coming from?    If achieved we’d save about 116 runs which is worth 11-12 wins.    So yes, that would put us in the hunt.    But those projections are very optimistic IMO.

Cashner and Tillman are their 3 year averages.   Vargas was out in 2015 and 2016 so his is his career average..

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

Cashner and Tillman are their 3 year averages.   Vargas was out in 2015 and 2016 so his are a repeat of  what  he did last year.

Thanks.    I’m not sure a three year average is meaningful for Tillman, considering the causes of his high ERA last year.   

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks.    I’m not sure a three year average is meaningful for Tillman, considering the causes of his high ERA last year.   

I think the O's should sign Tillman to a 2m base salary plus incentives to 10m.   If he believes in himself he should take it.   If Tillman hurt in shoulder and what it needs is rest and rehab this off season then the could come back strong.   If his injury is something he can't overcome then he will not have a good 2018.    In that case the O's would be where you suggest and use Castro or Cortes as the 5th starter.   I think Tillman is worth a 2m risk.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's should sign Tillman to a 2m base salary plus incentives to 10m.   If he believes in himself he should take it.   If Tillman hurt in shoulder and what it needs is rest and rehab this off season then the could come back strong.   If his injury is something he can't overcome then he will not have a good 2018.    In that case the O's would be where you suggest and use Castro or Cortes as the 5th starter.   I think Tillman is worth a 2m risk.

I’d probably do it, too.    Especially if they’ve seen him throw and think he’s sound.    But they have to be willing to cut him if they decide he can’t perform.  

[mdbdotcom]

Of the three on your list, the one I'd be most willing to take a chance on is Vargas. Lefties tend to pitch a little longer than righties, and he only has 1,401 major league innings on his arm. Compared to Sabathia, who is two-years older and has thrown more than 3,300 major league innings, Vargas is a spring chicken.

For the other two slots, I would fill one in a Manny trade and let the internal candidates fight for the 5th spot.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d probably do it, too.    Especially if they’ve seen him throw and think he’s sound.    But they have to be willing to cut him if they decide he can’t perform.  

O's will eat 2M especially if he has pitched 4-6 games and is not good.   They have a real problem with eating 5m or more.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d probably do it, too.    Especially if they’ve seen him throw and think he’s sound.    But they have to be willing to cut him if they decide he can’t perform.  

O's will eat 2M especially if he has pitched 4-6 games and is not good.   They have a real problem with eating 5m or more.

[wildcard]

I think the O's have to overpay to get either Cashner or Vargas to come to Camden Yard.   The extra 2 or 3m/yr is just to cost of doing business in a hitter park.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's have to overpay to get either Cashner or Vargas to come to Camden Yard.   The extra 2 or 3m/yr is just to cost of doing business in a hitter park.

Overrated: the difficulty of pitching at Camden Yards.

The O’s had a 4.60 ERA at home, 5.38 on the road.    They played in 18 road stadiums and pitched worse than at OPACY in 13 of them, including the 9.91 ERA at Yankee Stadium.    

[ScGO's]

I honestly think the O's can compete this year by only signing pitchers that would require one year deals.  It will be for the 2nd wild card, but we knew that either way. 

No more draft picks for iffy Ubaldo type commitments.  No more trades which require prospects of any shape or form as we need as much Milb depth as possible to compete in this market moving forward.    Sticking to 1 year deals is the most economical way to compete this year while considering all the freed up money the O's will have after the season too, leaving us with the option of A) a true rebuild if we stank or B) a real financial driven reload in 2019 if we have success in 2018.  The ONLY trades I would consider for a starter would be ones that relieve us of some of Trumbo, O'day, or Davis' contract.

 

So which pitchers are out there that would require one year deals, either MLB or MILB, that could allow us to compete this year?  Here's who I can think of: Garcia, Dickey, Lackey, Tillman, Cahill, Holland, Peavy, Buchholz,  Colon, Wood, Feldman, Hellickson, Jiminez, Liriano, Norris, de la Rosa

Some of these names have had some ugly seasons, but sign a couple and invite three or four to ST on milb deals and see who shows up.  Some might end up being a decent BP piece or stick around at AAA if they know the "Norfolk" shuttle will be in operation.  Hell, if Ynoa or Wright beat them out for a spot, at least we know its for real if they have real competition in spring training.

[Aristotelian]

If by contender you mean having a nonzero chance, yes. We are still worse on paper than the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Twins, and Angels, and even or worse than the Blue Jays, Royals, and Mariners. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

If by contender you mean having a nonzero chance, yes. We are still worse on paper than the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Twins, and Angels, and even or worse than the Blue Jays, Royals, and Mariners. 

Man the Rays get no respect around these parts.