The Rotation

[now]

What I don't get in all this discussion is how everyone is utterly discounting Cortes' minor league stats (just cause he doesn't flash high heat), whereas everyone has been clamoring for ML-ready young pitchers in trade, many of whom don't show much better results in the minors (except higher ranking by the "experts"). Similarly, no one is crediting Castro with any chance to be average, when on a typical day last year he outpitched the starter he replaced. So that's two...

[now]

8 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

The bar was set soooo low last year that yeah, sure, there is a good chance the randos will outperform Tillman, Miley, and Ubaldo.  That doesn't mean the 2018 Orioles rotation will be good as constructed or that slightly outperforming last year's rotation is really that good of a thing.

This is a good point, and a familiar scenario, year to year. I know I fall into that addition by subtraction trap every year, thinking it's so easy just to replace abysmal failures with average or even replacement bodies. Trouble is, each year shows up with a fresh set of abysmal performers, whether new faces or holdovers.

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, now said:

What I don't get in all this discussion is how everyone is utterly discounting Cortes' minor league stats (just cause he doesn't flash high heat), whereas everyone has been clamoring for ML-ready young pitchers in trade, many of whom don't show much better results in the minors (except higher ranking by the "experts"). Similarly, no one is crediting Castro with any chance to be average, when on a typical day last year he outpitched the starter he replaced. So that's two...

I don't discount either.  And I am thrilled to have both of them.  Either or both could earn a SP slot and I expect both to be good if used in the pen.  But, in reality, we already need one of them to be better than a starter from last year and the other to take Casto's spot from last year, just to be where we were...Yes it is a low bar and they could pull us over that bar, but it is coming at the problem from the wrong end in my opinion.

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, now said:

What I don't get in all this discussion is how everyone is utterly discounting Cortes' minor league stats (just cause he doesn't flash high heat), whereas everyone has been clamoring for ML-ready young pitchers in trade, many of whom don't show much better results in the minors (except higher ranking by the "experts"). Similarly, no one is crediting Castro with any chance to be average, when on a typical day last year he outpitched the starter he replaced. So that's two...

Cortes may be the closes O's minor leaguer to being ML ready.   Though he only started 6 games at AAA.  Castro has not really started since 2014 in short A to A+ ball.   He started 5 games in 2015 but only when a total of 11.2 inning.  That is not really being a starter.    Ynoa has started 7 games in the majors and done pretty well but that is balanced out by a 5.25 ERA in AAA last year in 21 starts.    Wright and Asher both have career ERAs  over 6.00 as ML starters.   Its really not a pretty picture.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Cortes may be the closes O's minor leaguer to being ML ready.   Though he only started 6 games at AAA.  Castro has not really started since 2014 in short A to A+ ball.   He started 5 games in 2015 but only when a total of 11.2 inning.  That is not really being a starter.    Ynoa has started 7 games in the majors and done pretty well but that is balanced out by a 5.25 ERA in AAA last year in 21 starts.    Wright and Asher both have career ERAs  over 6.00 as starters.   Its really not a pretty picture.

DD said this, when he first selected him.

I was listening to Alabama and their song, "Cheap Seats", and it talked about their pitcher, oldwhatshisname.

Kinda of funny, here where we have 3 open slots.

 

[LookitsPuck]

I'm glad those guys are out of the rotation.

But year in and year out it seems like we say the same thing. The only way to properly ensure a rotation's success isn't to go into the year with 5 spots filled and dust off your hands. It's to have meaningful depth. And right now is guys like Asher, Ynoa and Wright are filling out the rotation...what is the depth?

People forget that the O's acquired Hellickson last year. He got shellacked. Asher went from being effective as a reliever to posting a near 7 ERA as a starter. Ynoa was hurt for a period. Wright, well, stunk in a reliever role. Putting those 3 into the rotation is going to give us pretty poor results. As bad as a hurt Tillman, a fully regressed Ubaldo and Wade Miley? Potentially. 

Starters get hurt. 

So, yeah. I'm not very keen on this rotation being world's better (or even better) than last year's. What happens if one of Gausman or Bundy gets hurt?

That's the real alarm here. No impact depth for starting pitchers in the minors that can be immediately called up.

[now]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Cortes may be the closes O's minor leaguer to being ML ready.   Though he only started 6 games at AAA.  Castro has not really started since 2014 in short A to A+ ball.   He started 5 games in 2015 but only when a total of 11.2 inning.  That is not really being a starter.    Ynoa has started 7 games in the majors and done pretty well but that is balanced out by a 5.25 ERA in AAA last year in 21 starts.    Wright and Asher both have career ERAs  over 6.00 as ML starters.   Its really not a pretty picture.

You're right after the first two. But for Castro, I'm projecting more based on multiple innings, with a strong pitch repertoire, and 50+ pitches thrown (IIRC) on numerous occasions, which is more than we can say for the majority of the 2017 starting staff (too often including Gausman).

And yes, it would mean replacing those middle relief innings, but those are usually low leverage, and we can do that with the likes of Mesa, Ynoa, Bleier, O'Day... or whoever. All of which is not to say we can't use more bona fide starters. But it's not a total void, in the meantime.

[spiritof66]

4 minutes ago, now said:

You're right after the first two. But for Castro, I'm projecting more based on multiple innings, with a strong pitch repertoire, and 50+ pitches thrown (IIRC) on numerous occasions, which is more than we can say for the majority of the 2017 starting staff (too often including Gausman).

With the likelihood that the rotation will be, at best, pretty bad, and without any innings-eaters so far, I would prefer to see Castro in the bullpen to start the season. 

[esmd]

The problem with this whole addition by subtraction thing, is that even though they've subtracted guys that were terrible on a historical level, they've still got to replace them with, you know, guys who are better.  Does anyone really think that Castro, Wright, Cortes, or whoever else they can throw in there from the current 40 man roster would be significantly better than Jimenez, Miley, Tillman, and Hellickson were last year?  I sure don't.  At best, I don't think you could count on any more than a negligible upgrade.  At worst, we set a set a new low bar.  Plus they're actually liable to bring Tillman back, and I see no reason to think he's still not damaged goods.

[Tx Oriole]

5 hours ago, weams said:

Is Subtraction a positive here? 

 

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/02/taking-the-orioles-rotation-for-another-spin-1.html

Would a rotation of best three out of eight randos be preferred? 

I do not want to see Tillman back at all. What does it take for Buck to wake the hell up? He wants Tillman back? I sure as hell hope that doesn't happen. 

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I don't want Tillman back either. However, knowing the Orioles luck he will pitch well if he signs with another team. Can the Orioles afford for that to happen? I am not sure.

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, NedFromYork said:

Cobb, Tillman, and Hutchinson with Hays in RF and call it a day.

Would rather put Lynn as a replacement for Tillman. Isn't there a pitcher in 3A that could pitch better than Hutchison? 

[foxfield]

I do not want Tillman back either....that said, he is most assuredly a cheap risk, especially if he can be signed on a minor league contract.  There is no harm to finding out if he is done or if he can rebound.  Someone is going to find out.  Given our holes, I just can't fathom why not.

Not Expensive...not long term...

[Tx Oriole]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I do not want Tillman back either....that said, he is most assuredly a cheap risk, especially if he can be signed on a minor league contract.  There is no harm to finding out if he is done or if he can rebound.  Someone is going to find out.  Given our holes, I just can't fathom why not.

Not Expensive...not long term...

Sorry. I mean I can understand what you are saying but gosh I hate to take the chance with him. I think he is one of Bucks boys. Could really screw up badly and Buck wouldn't pull him. This is a big fault of Buck. His loyalty to his boys. It's loyalty to a fault. 

[jtschrei]

How can this organization both

• Refuse to trade Manny and insist that they are competing this year

AND 

• Fail to address the worst rotation in the AL last year? The only way we're signing Lynn or Cobb is "if they fall into our lap?" 

It's just befuddling. I will be very excited the day that the Orioles get a new ownership group.