Where is the starter market? Where are the O's?

[wildcard]

This is what I am reading and hearing.   Please post if you see it this way or if you think it is going a different way.

Darvish wants to go to the Cubs.  The Cubs want Darvish.   They just have not come to terms yet.  They are holding up the market until he signs.

The Twins and the Brewers both want Darvish but Darvish likes the Cubs.  Both teams will settle of Cobb and/or Lynn..   They will both go 4 years for either.

Boras is holding Arrieta at about 24-25m per year and will try to create a market with the Nationals.  If that does not work Boras will wait the market out until someone is hurt in ST.   He could go into the season without signing.  The Nats are under the luxury tax at present  after being over last year.  They are willing to go over the luxury tax level for the right  deal.

The Yankees and Dodgers are staying under the luxury tax which is keeping them out of the market.

The Phillies are a total wild card.  The have money.  Can afford anyone that they can convince to come to a building team.  They are looking for bargains or good value deals

Vargas,  Cashner and Garcia are the next tier.    The O's, BlueJays, Mets,  Twins seem in competition for this starters.

Tillman could go to any one of several teams.   O's, Phillies, Tigers. Twins and probably more.   It doesn't look like he will get a large one year contract.   Something with a low base salary or a minors league contract.  

Giants, Rangers, Mariners, and Angels seem to be sitting out the FA starter  market though that could change.

That is what I am reading.   What do you see?

[jamalshw]

I don't think Darvish wants to go to the Cubs. I think he wants to go to Los Angeles or New York, but with neither likely to clear enough space to stay under the luxury tax limit, I think he'll settle for Chicago as his third choice and eventually sign there.

I think the Twins or Brewers could take the plunge on Arrieta depending on how bullish he is (or Boras is) to hold firm on the request. I think both are willing to go a bit beyond where some teams may want to go given their need for a top shelf starter. I think the one that misses on Arrieta grabs Cobb (or maybe Lynn, but I think Cobb is the favorite).

I agree that the Yankees and Dodgers will likely remain out of the top end of the market given price, but wouldn't be shocked if one of Lynn or Cobb goes to one of those two if money shifts around appropriately. If I'm the Yankees, however, I'm more concerned with 2B and 3B than SP.

Mets are another team that I think could play on Lynn. Otherwise, I tend to agree they're competition for the best of the rest.

I think the one added wildcard here is the Jake Odorizzi and Colin McHugh markets. With both names being floated around, they could eat into the markets for Cashner, Vargas, etc. I don't think either will do much to take away targets for the top-4 as they're below them, but they're likely better options than that next class.

There are enough arms out there that I do think the O's end up with a pair of them, but I'm not sure they're going to be great options.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I don't think Darvish wants to go to the Cubs. I think he wants to go to Los Angeles or New York, but with neither likely to clear enough space to stay under the luxury tax limit, I think he'll settle for Chicago as his third choice and eventually sign there.

I think the Twins or Brewers could take the plunge on Arrieta depending on how bullish he is (or Boras is) to hold firm on the request. I think both are willing to go a bit beyond where some teams may want to go given their need for a top shelf starter. I think the one that misses on Arrieta grabs Cobb (or maybe Lynn, but I think Cobb is the favorite).

I agree that the Yankees and Dodgers will likely remain out of the top end of the market given price, but wouldn't be shocked if one of Lynn or Cobb goes to one of those two if money shifts around appropriately. If I'm the Yankees, however, I'm more concerned with 2B and 3B than SP.

Mets are another team that I think could play on Lynn. Otherwise, I tend to agree they're competition for the best of the rest.

I think the one added wildcard here is the Jake Odorizzi and Colin McHugh markets. With both names being floated around, they could eat into the markets for Cashner, Vargas, etc. I don't think either will do much to take away targets for the top-4 as they're below them, but they're likely better options than that next class.

There are enough arms out there that I do think the O's end up with a pair of them, but I'm not sure they're going to be great options.

Thanks for the insight.  I am reading that the Mets don't want to give up the draft choice for Lynn.  So Vargas,  Cashner or Garcia are the best fit for them.

[wildbillhiccup]

17 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I don't think Darvish wants to go to the Cubs. I think he wants to go to Los Angeles or New York, but with neither likely to clear enough space to stay under the luxury tax limit, I think he'll settle for Chicago as his third choice and eventually sign there.

I think the Twins or Brewers could take the plunge on Arrieta depending on how bullish he is (or Boras is) to hold firm on the request. I think both are willing to go a bit beyond where some teams may want to go given their need for a top shelf starter. I think the one that misses on Arrieta grabs Cobb (or maybe Lynn, but I think Cobb is the favorite).

I agree that the Yankees and Dodgers will likely remain out of the top end of the market given price, but wouldn't be shocked if one of Lynn or Cobb goes to one of those two if money shifts around appropriately. If I'm the Yankees, however, I'm more concerned with 2B and 3B than SP.

Mets are another team that I think could play on Lynn. Otherwise, I tend to agree they're competition for the best of the rest.

I think the one added wildcard here is the Jake Odorizzi and Colin McHugh markets. With both names being floated around, they could eat into the markets for Cashner, Vargas, etc. I don't think either will do much to take away targets for the top-4 as they're below them, but they're likely better options than that next class.

There are enough arms out there that I do think the O's end up with a pair of them, but I'm not sure they're going to be great options.

Agree with all of this except for the Mets. They have too much rotation depth to shell out money for Lynn. deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Wheeler, Harvey, Lugo, and Gsellman. 

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I don't think Darvish wants to go to the Cubs. I think he wants to go to Los Angeles or New York, but with neither likely to clear enough space to stay under the luxury tax limit, I think he'll settle for Chicago as his third choice and eventually sign there.

I think the Twins or Brewers could take the plunge on Arrieta depending on how bullish he is (or Boras is) to hold firm on the request. I think both are willing to go a bit beyond where some teams may want to go given their need for a top shelf starter. I think the one that misses on Arrieta grabs Cobb (or maybe Lynn, but I think Cobb is the favorite).

I agree that the Yankees and Dodgers will likely remain out of the top end of the market given price, but wouldn't be shocked if one of Lynn or Cobb goes to one of those two if money shifts around appropriately. If I'm the Yankees, however, I'm more concerned with 2B and 3B than SP.

Mets are another team that I think could play on Lynn. Otherwise, I tend to agree they're competition for the best of the rest.

I think the one added wildcard here is the Jake Odorizzi and Colin McHugh markets. With both names being floated around, they could eat into the markets for Cashner, Vargas, etc. I don't think either will do much to take away targets for the top-4 as they're below them, but they're likely better options than that next class.

There are enough arms out there that I do think the O's end up with a pair of them, but I'm not sure they're going to be great options.

I don't think the Brewers or Twins will agree to Arrieta/Boras price.   The Nats and/or Phillies might.

[pastorfan]

I would think Darvish does end up with the Cubs and Arrieta with Brewers or Twins. This leaves Cobb or Lynn for the Brewers or Twins. That means we have a shot at one of them unless there is a "dark" horse somewhere. I personally think if you are going to lose draft picks then just jump in with both feet and get Cobb and Lynn. They could be easily tradeable in the future after teams do not have luxury tax concerns. 

[Tx Oriole]

50 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This is what I am reading and hearing.   Please post if you see it this way or if you think it is going a different way.

Darvish wants to go to the Cubs.  The Cubs want Darvish.   They just have not come to terms yet.  They are holding up the market until he signs.

The Twins and the Brewer both want Darvish but Darvish likes the Cubs.  Both teams will settle of Cobb and/or Lynn..   They will both go 4 years for either.

Boras is holding Arrieta at about 24-25m per year and will try to create a market with the Nationals.  If that does not work Boras will wait the market out until someone is hurt in ST.   He could go into the season without signing.  The Nats are under the luxury tax at present  after being over last year.  They are willing to go over the luxury tax level for the right  deal.

The Yankees and Dodgers are staying under the luxury tax which is keeping them out of the market.

The Phillies as a total wild card.  The have money.  Can afford anyone that they can convince to come to a building team.  They are looking for bargains or goodl value deals

Vargas  Cashner and Garcia are the next tier.    The O's, BlueJays, Mets,  Twins seem in competition for this starters.

Tillman could go to any one of several teams.   O's, Phillies, Tigers. Twins and probably more.   It doesn't look like he will get a large one year contract.   Something with a low base salary or a minors league contract.  

Giants, Rangers, Mariners, and Angels seem to be sitting out the FA starter  market though that could change.

That is what I am reading.   What do you see?

I not sure about any of these teams or the pitchers. I don't think DD will do anything that will help the O's rotation. Wish they'd go ahead and sign Lynn. Maybe Vargas or Cashner too. I read where the team needs two pitchers. 

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Agree with all of this except for the Mets. They have too much rotation depth to shell out money for Lynn. deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Wheeler, Harvey, Lugo, and Gsellman. 

I hope you are right.  I would like to  see the Mets out on Vargas and Cashner.

[wildbillhiccup]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I hope you are right.  I would like to  see the O's out on Vargas and Cashner.

Me too. Especially if it takes more than a one year deal to land either one of them. 

[Moose Milligan]

The O's aren't anywhere near the starter market.  As a matter of fact, they're not in the same ballpark. 

[Frobby]

What the OP says is plausible, but it seems that so often teams come out of nowhere to grab a player.    I think there may be a lot of that this year, because a lot of teams are laying behind the log waiting to pounce if market conditions are to their liking.    

[wildbillhiccup]

I really hope the Jays sign him (just so the Oriole's don't)

MLB.com's Jon Morosi reports that the Blue Jays are "showing continued interest" in Andrew Cashner.

Morosi says that Cashner is among the many hurlers the Jays are considering and that they "hope to land a veteran starter on a one-year deal." Cashner posted a 3.40 ERA over 28 starts for the Rangers last season and is just 31, but his strikeout rate was way down and it wouldn't be a surprise if he had to settle for a one-year contract with the way the market is going. The Orioles are another club that's been connected to Cashner.

[bpilktree]

I think the Dodgers want to sign space and our trying to move a player or two.  The problem is teams don't want to help them out unless they attach a top notch prospect with them.  That seems to be the underlying reason why the market is cloggged up.  Why would a team help out the Dodgers and allow them to get under they luxury enough so they can add  Darvish.  That also will restart their luxury tax and help them in future years with signing guys.  Teams not only are helping them to take on a contract like Kemp but it also gives the Darvish and space in the future.  I think teams realize the only way to really be able to compete with the big market teams is to force them to go over luxury tax a few years in a row to get to that 50% mark on signing guys.  That way they when they are offering big money to future free agents like Harper Manny and other that 30 million is actually 45 million or that 20 million is really 30 million  because of luxury tax rules.  Letting the Dodgers or Yanks stay under and add guys now also helps them in the future with their players and future free agency. 

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Thanks for the insight.  I am reading that the Mets don't want to give up the draft choice for Lynn.  So Vargas,  Cashner or Garcia are the best fit for them.

I doubt they land him, but I'm sure they're sniffing around and seeing if he can be had for under the $50M threshold. He likely still lands a 4-year deal, but if he slips to 3-years, he could fall down to the $48M range. It's unlikely, but possible. 

[jamalshw]

56 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Agree with all of this except for the Mets. They have too much rotation depth to shell out money for Lynn. deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Wheeler, Harvey, Lugo, and Gsellman. 

Sure they have plenty of depth, but not much quality beyond deGrom and Syndergaard. They make more sense at the Cashner/Vargas level, but I do think they'll sniff around Lynn to see if the price falls enough. He'll be the one of the four (based on what I've heard) that is most likely to drop out of the 4-year range. His AAV price tag will likely still be too hefty for the Mets, but we've already seen New York jump into markets they indicated they weren't playing in (see: Frazier at third where they were going to play Cabrera). 

After deGrom and Syndergaard (who hardly pitched last year himself), the team has question marks everywhere. Can Harvey bounce back? Can Matz stay healthy? Can Wheeler stay healthy and if he does, can he improve on the mid-5 ERA? As for Lugo and Gsellman, they're more depth guys (granted not in our rotation, but still...) than they are dependable starters. 

If I were the Mets (or a Mets fan), I'd be looking for a reliable No.3 starter. That could then give the team a rather reliable top-3 and let the Matz, Wheeler, Harvey trio fill out the last two spots and Lugo and Gsellman serve as insurance for injuries that will undoubtedly come given this lot.