Where is the starter market? Where are the O's?

[theocean]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

This is what I am reading and hearing.   Please post if you see it this way or if you think it is going a different way.

Darvish wants to go to the Cubs.  The Cubs want Darvish.   They just have not come to terms yet.  They are holding up the market until he signs.

The Twins and the Brewer both want Darvish but Darvish likes the Cubs.  Both teams will settle of Cobb and/or Lynn..   They will both go 4 years for either.

Boras is holding Arrieta at about 24-25m per year and will try to create a market with the Nationals.  If that does not work Boras will wait the market out until someone is hurt in ST.   He could go into the season without signing.  The Nats are under the luxury tax at present  after being over last year.  They are willing to go over the luxury tax level for the right  deal.

The Yankees and Dodgers are staying under the luxury tax which is keeping them out of the market.

The Phillies as a total wild card.  The have money.  Can afford anyone that they can convince to come to a building team.  They are looking for bargains or goodl value deals

Vargas  Cashner and Garcia are the next tier.    The O's, BlueJays, Mets,  Twins seem in competition for this starters.

Tillman could go to any one of several teams.   O's, Phillies, Tigers. Twins and probably more.   It doesn't look like he will get a large one year contract.   Something with a low base salary or a minors league contract.  

Giants, Rangers, Mariners, and Angels seem to be sitting out the FA starter  market though that could change.

That is what I am reading.   What do you see?

Good summary. I think Darvish is really holding up the market. As soon as he signs, all the other chips will fall into place fast. 

[wildbillhiccup]

51 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Sure they have plenty of depth, but not much quality beyond deGrom and Syndergaard. They make more sense at the Cashner/Vargas level, but I do think they'll sniff around Lynn to see if the price falls enough. He'll be the one of the four (based on what I've heard) that is most likely to drop out of the 4-year range. His AAV price tag will likely still be too hefty for the Mets, but we've already seen New York jump into markets they indicated they weren't playing in (see: Frazier at third where they were going to play Cabrera). 

After deGrom and Syndergaard (who hardly pitched last year himself), the team has question marks everywhere. Can Harvey bounce back? Can Matz stay healthy? Can Wheeler stay healthy and if he does, can he improve on the mid-5 ERA? As for Lugo and Gsellman, they're more depth guys (granted not in our rotation, but still...) than they are dependable starters. 

If I were the Mets (or a Mets fan), I'd be looking for a reliable No.3 starter. That could then give the team a rather reliable top-3 and let the Matz, Wheeler, Harvey trio fill out the last two spots and Lugo and Gsellman serve as insurance for injuries that will undoubtedly come given this lot. 

Vargas and Cashner are no better than the candidates the Mets have in house. Matz and Wheeler are better then both of them. 

[jamalshw]

44 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Vargas and Cashner are no better than the candidates the Mets have in house. Matz and Wheeler are better then both of them. 

In terms of talent if healthy, sure. Matz threw 66.2 innings last year and had a 6.08 ERA. I attribute that to healthy, bit it wasn't the first sign of injury issues with the young man. He's an injury risk and can't be counted on for more than 20 starts.

Wheeler is in a similar situation. He missed two whole seasons and came back healthy last year only to go down again and pitch 17 starts with a 5.21 ERA.

Even if you're going to count on their health (at least enough that Lugo and Gsellman can fill in when they are out), you then ALSO have to count on Harvey turning around from him 6.70 ERA season.

Basically, rolling forward without an added arm you have to assume relative health of Wheeler, Matz and Harvey as well as solid performances from all three who all had ERAs in the 5s of 6s last year an NL East with only one good team. Sure, you do have depth with Lugo and Gsellman, but I didn't see enough from either last year to count on either as a full time starter in the likely scenario that at least one of the three doesn't hack it either by health or performance.

All of that assumes the health of deGrom and Syndergaard. Sure, deGrom has been durable, but health of a pitcher is never a guarantee. Meanwhile, Syndergaard pitched so little last year there's not certainty he can be counted on for 30-33 starts either.

Given all of that, it's at least reason able to expect the Mets to at least explore additions of Lynn, Cashner, Vargas, Garcia and others.

[El Gordo]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

What the OP says is plausible, but it seems that so often teams come out of nowhere to grab a player.    I think there may be a lot of that this year, because a lot of teams are laying behind the log waiting to pounce if market conditions are to their liking.    

Dan's not behind no stinkin'  log he's laying in the weeds.

 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

In terms of talent if healthy, sure. Matz threw 66.2 innings last year and had a 6.08 ERA. I attribute that to healthy, bit it wasn't the first sign of injury issues with the young man. He's an injury risk and can't be counted on for more than 20 starts.

Wheeler is in a similar situation. He missed two whole seasons and came back healthy last year only to go down again and pitch 17 starts with a 5.21 ERA.

Even if you're going to count on their health (at least enough that Lugo and Gsellman can fill in when they are out), you then ALSO have to count on Harvey turning around from him 6.70 ERA season.

Basically, rolling forward without an added arm you have to assume relative health of Wheeler, Matz and Harvey as well as solid performances from all three who all had ERAs in the 5s of 6s last year an NL East with only one good team. Sure, you do have depth with Lugo and Gsellman, but I didn't see enough from either last year to count on either as a full time starter in the likely scenario that at least one of the three doesn't hack it either by health or performance.

All of that assumes the health of deGrom and Syndergaard. Sure, deGrom has been durable, but health of a pitcher is never a guarantee. Meanwhile, Syndergaard pitched so little last year there's not certainty he can be counted on for 30-33 starts either.

Given all of that, it's at least reason able to expect the Mets to at least explore additions of Lynn, Cashner, Vargas, Garcia and others.

There's been zero buzz about the Mets being interested in signing a starting pitcher this offseason. In fact, the only rumor has been the exact opposite with them shopping Harvey. I realize we're all just speculating, but I think you're reaaaaaaaallly stretching to make this work. Bottom line, they have seven starting pitching candidates. That's more than enough. 

[Camden_yardbird]

At what point does waiting to let it all playvout turn into over paying for whatever is left.  Presumably the Orioles need two players from this market.

[jamalshw]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

There's been zero buzz about the Mets being interested in signing a starting pitcher this offseason. In fact, the only rumor has been the exact opposite with them shopping Harvey. I realize we're all just speculating, but I think you're reaaaaaaaallly stretching to make this work. Bottom line, they have seven starting pitching candidates. That's more than enough. 

Except there HAS been buzz on the Mets being interested in signing a starting pitcher. There are tons of examples of this sprinkled around Twitter and MLBTradeRumors, but the latest time I saw it mentioned was on fanragsports here: https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-what-is-red-soxs-backup-plan/

The New York Mets' section:

They are definitely looking at a pitcher. The thinking, at least for now, is that Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn will be too pricey for them, but of course, it isn’t known where they will wind up — particularly Lynn, who doesn’t seemed to have the market expected. They’d love Cobb or Lynn, but it appears only if they really fell due to the dormant market. Otherwise, they will take a look at Jason Vargas, Jaime Garcia, Andrew Cashner (who’s represented by CAA which reps Todd Frazier, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes) and Hector Santiago, and those types.

[Number5]

8 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Dan's not behind no stinkin'  log he's laying in the weeds.

 

 

Very interesting. 

[Three Run Homer]

9 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Dan's not behind no stinkin'  log he's laying in the weeds.

 

 

I'm sure whatever move the O's make, some of us will think it is shtoopid.  

[MDtransplant757]

2 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I'm sure whatever move the O's make, all of us will think it is shtoopid.  

Fixed your post

[gtman55]

6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I'm sure whatever move the O's make, it will be shtoopid.  

Fixed it again.

[ChuckS]

I highly doubt Cashner will be able to keep his ERA under 5 playing in Baltimore. I’d stay away.

I would be okay with getting Garcia or Vargas on a 2 year deal assuming we can’t land Cobb or Lynn. Still holding out hope that we can acquire another starter via trade and at this point I would be happy with bringing Tillman back on a cheap deal. 

 

[wildcard]

46 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I highly doubt Cashner will be able to keep his ERA under 5 playing in Baltimore. I’d stay away.

I would be okay with getting Garcia or Vargas on a 2 year deal assuming we can’t land Cobb or Lynn. Still holding out hope that we can acquire another starter via trade and at this point I would be happy with bringing Tillman back on a cheap deal. 

 

JMO but I think the O's are looking for one year deals on Vargas, Cashner, and Tillman. All have then had injuries and the O's don't want to pay for multi years for a guy who arm might be close to wore out.

[Bradysburns]

The more I think about this situation, the sadder it gets. 

We're clearly going into 2018 with -- at best -- a mediocre rotation. 

Bundy, Gausman... and even adding Cashner and Lynn, you could wind up with the worst rotation in the East... easily.

Fact is, they let the rotation go to pot. They didn't plan properly. They didn't have backup plans in place. They went for band-aids and long shots and reclamation projects. They arguably mishandled both Bundy and Gausman along the way, to boot. And now here we are.

I would put this on Dan, but I imagine ownership has tied his hands to some degree. 

Still, the Davis contract is looking more horrible by the day, IMO. That was a ridiculous overpay. And I have to wonder how it's impacting our ability to sign starters right now. 

 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

I highly doubt Cashner will be able to keep his ERA under 5 playing in Baltimore. I’d stay away.

I would be okay with getting Garcia or Vargas on a 2 year deal assuming we can’t land Cobb or Lynn. Still holding out hope that we can acquire another starter via trade and at this point I would be happy with bringing Tillman back on a cheap deal. 

 

Sadly, an ERA at 5.1 would be tremendous improvement over the starter(s) he would be replacing.  But, that said....yeah your right!