Where is the starter market? Where are the O's?

[theocean]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

This doesn't quiet talk of collusion for me. Darvish only getting 21M a year is pretty surprising.

I really don't think there is any collusion. Teams have gotten smart watching the Royals, Cubs, and Astros win the Series with homegrown talent. They realized that big deals to players over thirty with injury histories is dumb.

[Frobby]

On 2/9/2018 at 9:31 AM, wildcard said:

This is what I am reading and hearing.   Please post if you see it this way or if you think it is going a different way.

Darvish wants to go to the Cubs.  The Cubs want Darvish.   They just have not come to terms yet.  They are holding up the market until he signs.

The Twins and the Brewers both want Darvish but Darvish likes the Cubs.  

 Batting 1.000 so far.  

[MurphDogg]

14 minutes ago, theocean said:

I really don't think there is any collusion. Teams have gotten smart watching the Royals, Cubs, and Astros win the Series with homegrown talent. They realized that big deals to players over thirty with injury histories is dumb.

Everybody got smart and made the same realizations at the same time and delayed the entire market? If the Dodgers had won Game 7 instead of the Astros, things would be different? It is unprecedented for this many players to be looking for deals in February.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

 

The Cubs are going to be regretful about this one well before year four is done, imho. 

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 Batting 1.000 so far.  

I can't take credit for anything.  This is just what I was reading.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Everybody got smart and made the same realizations at the same time and delayed the entire market? If the Dodgers had won Game 7 instead of the Astros, things would be different? It is unprecedented for this many players to be looking for deals in February.

It wasn't at the same time.

This has been developing over the last few years.  Look at the inaction for bat only guys like Davis and Trumbo in recent post seasons.

[tntoriole]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Everybody got smart and made the same realizations at the same time and delayed the entire market? If the Dodgers had won Game 7 instead of the Astros, things would be different? It is unprecedented for this many players to be looking for deals in February.

Yes, analytic GMs, structuring rosters through value, etc.  have been around for at least 25 years now.   All of a sudden, GMs everywhere were stupid about deals every offseason for the last 20, but this year, just this year, just happening to be the year before the CBA gets renegotiated...then they ALL get “smart”and come to this tactic simultaneously and with absolutely no discussion between their staffs or offices or owners??   Sure. 

Peter Ueberroth said the same thing about the owners and GMs back then ...they simply  “saw the light of fiscal responsibility.  After collusion was proven in 1990, Fay Vincent told the owners  ““You stole $280 million from the players, and the players are unified to a man around that issue, because you got caught and many of you are still involved.”  Like Bud Selig who was right in the middle of it. 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Yes, analytic GMs, structuring rosters through value, etc.  have been around for at least 25 years now.   All of a sudden, GMs everywhere were stupid about deals every offseason for the last 20, but this year, just this year, just happening to be the year before the CBA gets renegotiated...then they ALL get “smart”and come to this tactic simultaneously and with absolutely no discussion between their staffs or offices or owners??   Sure. 

Peter Ueberroth said the same thing about the owners and GMs back then ...they simply  “saw the light of fiscal responsibility.  After collusion was proven in 1990, Fay Vincent told the owners  ““You stole $280 million from the players, and the players are unified to a man around that issue, because you got caught and many of you are still involved.”  Like Bud Selig who was right in the middle of it. 

 

 

What the heck are you talking about?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2016/11/30/breaking-down-mlbs-new-2017-21-collective-bargaining-agreement/#5a62a68c11b9

Quote

Length: Five years (2017-2021)

Termination date: December 1, 2021

Also, some players, like Darvish are getting paid.  Relievers have done very well for themselves, which makes sense considering the impact they have had on the recent post seasons.

I wonder if folks have been paying attention to the offseason past what the Orioles do the last few years.

You have Boras bypassing GMs and going to owners to find deals for folks like Davis and Wieters.  You have the defending NL HR champ taking a 1/3 deal last spring.  You have Pedro Alvarez signing a minor league deal. 

You have free agents accepting qualifying offers.

This market didn't appear overnight.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

The Cubs are going to be regretful about this one well before year four is done, imho. 

Let’s say they win the World Series once or twice in the next three years and Darvish plays a key role. Think they’ll think they made a bad deal if Darvish isn’t so good the next three years?    This is Theo going for the jugular while he has a WS contender on his hands.    There may be consequences later but it’s a logical move IMO.    And $21 mm/yr ain’t all that bad.   If he can milk 16 WAR out of Darvish the next 6 years, he’s paid for.  

[MurphDogg]

Players share of revenue has declined precipitously since 2002 while franchise values are at an all-time high. The union is the weakest it has ever been. Tony Clark's relationship with ownership has long been too chummy.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Players share of revenue has declined precipitously since 2002 while franchise values are at an all-time high. The union is the weakest it has ever been. Tony Clark's relationship with ownership has long been too chummy.  

From what I have read Clark was providing the players what they thought they wanted.  Should he have defied them?

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Players share of revenue has declined precipitously since 2002 while franchise values are at an all-time high. The union is the weakest it has ever been. Tony Clark's relationship with ownership has long been too chummy.  

Percentage is down, but salaries were at an all time high last year, so I’m not crying for them.  

[tntoriole]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What the heck are you talking about?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2016/11/30/breaking-down-mlbs-new-2017-21-collective-bargaining-agreement/#5a62a68c11b9

Also, some players, like Darvish are getting paid.  Relievers have done very well for themselves, which makes sense considering the impact they have had on the recent post seasons.

I wonder if folks have been paying attention to the offseason past what the Orioles do the last few years.

You have Boras bypassing GMs and going to owners to find deals for folks like Davis and Wieters.  You have the defending NL HR champ taking a 1/3 deal last spring.  You have Pedro Alvarez signing a minor league deal. 

You have free agents accepting qualifying offers.

This market didn't appear overnight.

Sorry, you are right...they will likely start renegotiating in the next year or so

But you are more trusting than I of the MLB corporate ownership and their willingness to cut corners.  We shall see.   Maybe it is just as you say.  But I wouldn’t be surprised if something turned up that is not yet visible to public scrutiny. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Sorry, you are right...they will likely start renegotiating in the next year or so

But you are more trusting than I of the MLB corporate ownership and their willingness to cut corners.  We shall see.   Maybe it is just as you say.  But I wouldn’t be surprised if something turned up that is not yet visible to public scrutiny. 

You have a higher opinion of the owner's ability to collude than I do.  I've seen what the owners colluding looks like and it isn't nearly this subtle.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Let’s say they win the World Series once or twice in the next three years and Darvish plays a key role. Think they’ll think they made a bad deal if Darvish isn’t so good the next three years?    This is Theo going for the jugular while he has a WS contender on his hands.    There may be consequences later but it’s a logical move IMO.    And $21 mm/yr ain’t all that bad.   If he can milk 16 WAR out of Darvish the next 6 years, he’s paid for.  

It could certainly happen that way.  Or it could be that his entering age 31 season, pitching high leverage innings since he was 18 in Japan, Tommy John surgery and whatever his issues were in playoffs last year become a problem earlier rather than later.    But the Cubs can afford it either way.