What if Arrieta falls to the O's?

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Where are you getting this? Do you have a source other than your service entrance? I doubt Jake or the O's want anything to do with one another. But more to the point Boras will be holding out for ever for more than Darvish got and Dan wont want to wait for that dance to end.

Dan may not have a choice but to wait.   There are a bunch of teams that are probably bidding for Cashner, Vargas and Garcia.   The lesser starters will be cheaper and probably not as effective.    The  O's will probably have  money for Jake well in the season if it takes that long.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

The Orioles will not pursue Arrieta. Also, he is no "bargain" at $20MM. And his diminished velocity suggests there is a medical problem.

That could well be.  The O's have or can get his medicals.

[Frobby]

When you look objectively at Arrieta, he’s not that likely to a TOR starter over the next several years. His ERA has gone from 1.77 to 3.10 to 3.53, his IP have gone from 229 to 197 to 168.    His fastball was down about 2 mph last year.  The Cubs got his best years while he was cost controlled.  He’s turning 32 next month.   Poor timing for him.    

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When you look objectively at Arrieta, he’s not that likely to a TOR starter over the next several years. His ERA has gone from 1.77 to 3.10 to 3.53, his IP have gone from 229 to 197 to 168.    His fastball was down about 2 mph last year.  The Cubs got his best years while he was cost controlled.  He’s turning 32 next month.   Poor timing for him.    

So maybe is becomes available for less than 21m/yr....... in time.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So maybe is becomes available for less than 21m/yr....... in time.

I’d stay away at almost any price.   I couldn’t bear the thought of giving Arrieta away and watching him win a Cy Young and a WS ring, only to lure him back for a lot of money (even if not $21 mm/yr) and have him suck with us again.   

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d stay away at almost any price.   I couldn’t bear the thought of giving Arrieta away and watching him win a Cy Young and a WS ring, only to lure him back for a lot of money (even if not $21 mm/yr) and have him suck with us again.   

Considering who the O's have and the pitchers that the O's could acquire between now and opening day,  someone is likely to suck anyway.  

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d stay away at almost any price.   I couldn’t bear the thought of giving Arrieta away and watching him win a Cy Young and a WS ring, only to lure him back for a lot of money (even if not $21 mm/yr) and have him suck with us again.   

I think Arrieta is going to be pretty bad for the remainder of his career, so I would avoid him anyway.

That said, I think Arrieta would sooner sit out a year than come back to the Orioles. Not to mention he's asking for, and will likely get at some point, a Darvish-level contract, I don't care what teams say they're out.

[Aglets]

44 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Maybe you guys know more about  Jake's history with the O's then I do.   Jake was a struggling minor leaguer who couldn't control his stuff when Buck had him in 2011-2013.   No one knew how to make him a major league pitchier.   Connor nor Adair helped him.   I don't know that there were hard feeling between Jake and the O's.  It just did not work.

If Jake came back it would be as an established pitcher,  Buck and McDowell would just let him do it his way.

To me it all about money.  Angelos has already give Davis 23m/yr.   21m for Jake seems possible for 3 yr plus a vesting option.   The O's have the need for him.

The real reason why it would not happen is the the Rangers change their direction and bring him back to Texas where is was born and went to college.   Or the the Phillies out bid the O's.  Boras is all about money any way.

Boras settling for 3/63 will be a long process.  It will probably not happen in the next month but maybe by opening day.  Meanwhile Jake works out at Boras complex.

I'm honestly trying to figure out how you can start from the fact that Arrieta turned down 6/126M and then get to the point where you think he could "settle" for 3/63 with us.

Like we seriously have a better chance of trading for Kershaw or Bryce Harper or Strasburg.   

You literally have two parties (both Arrieta and the O's) who want nothing to do with each other.   I bet we would be Jake's 29th or 30th favorite team to sign with.

[atomic]

Arrieta is going to get a minimum of 6 years.  Orioles won't even do 4 years.   Buck and Arrieta go together like oil and water.   There is zero chance of him falling to the Orioles.  Look for someone no other team wants.  That is who we will get. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, cimota said:

Arrieta is going to get a minimum of 6 years.  Orioles won't even do 4 years.   Buck and Arrieta go together like oil and water.   There is zero chance of him falling to the Orioles.  Look for someone no other team wants.  That is who we will get. 

I’m not sure Arrieta will get 6 years.   

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I'm honestly trying to figure out how you can start from the fact that Arrieta turned down 6/126M and then get to the point where you think he could "settle" for 3/63 with us.

Like we seriously have a better chance of trading for Kershaw or Bryce Harper or Strasburg.   

You literally have two parties (both Arrieta and the O's) who want nothing to do with each other.   I bet we would be Jake's 29th or 30th favorite team to sign with.

Answer the question of who is going to sign Jake?   When I try to identify the team looking at who has the money and the need, the O's are right at the top of the list along with the Phillies and Rangers.  Also realize that Boras almost always has his clients sign with the highest bidder.

[oriole]

I'm sure the Nats will swoop in an save Boras once again.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, cimota said:

Arrieta is going to get a minimum of 6 years.  Orioles won't even do 4 years.   Buck and Arrieta go together like oil and water.   There is zero chance of him falling to the Orioles.  Look for someone no other team wants.  That is who we will get. 

Who gives Jake 6 years? Or 5 years ? or 4 years.  Name the team(s).

[atomic]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure Arrieta will get 6 years.   

He was offered six years and turned it down.  He will get six years.  

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, oriole said:

I'm sure the Nats will swoop in an save Boras once again.

Read the OP. I covered that.  If you don't agree please tell me why.