Cashner signing

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think teams use FIP and other ball in play metrics to inform their decisions on potential signings.  I'm sure the Orioles know all about Cashner's delta between ERA and FIP or xFIP, and know and accept that he's very likely to regress this year in ERA terms.  Otherwise why weren't they offering him a richer contract based mostly on his 3.40 ERA?

Sure but like I said, one tool among many.  Teams aren't just going, whose got the best FIP among the free agent class.

[atomic]

 

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Again, no one is saying FIP is a perfect tool or that it's the only thing someone should look at, that's not an argument that's being made. That argument is that ERA is problematic for multiple reasons (dependent on sequencing, allowing defensive quality to leak into the valuation of a pitcher, not park or league adjusted).

ERA + handles  the ballpark scenario.  FIP is just a bunch of numbers combined that are somewhat correlated to a pitcher's performance that has to have a changing constant thrown in so some people will fall for it.  On average if you strike out a lot of guys don't walk many or give up many home runs you will be a good pitcher.   Though the stat is going to favor guys who strike out guys who try to strike out everyone over pitchers who pitch to contact.  Guys like Jamie Moyer and Jim Palmer will have lower ERAs than FIPS and guys like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson will have lower FIPS than ERAs.  

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, cimota said:

 

ERA + handles  the ballpark scenario.  FIP is just a bunch of numbers combined that are somewhat correlated to a pitcher's performance that has to have a changing constant thrown in so some people will fall for it.  On average if you strike out a lot of guys don't walk many or give up many home runs you will be a good pitcher.   Though the stat is going to favor guys who strike out guys who try to strike out everyone over pitchers who pitch to contact.  Guys like Jamie Moyer and Jim Palmer will have lower ERAs than FIPS and guys like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson will have lower FIPS than ERAs.  

Explain how Andrew Cashner was signed to a contract that seems to much more closely align to his FIP-based value than his ERA-based value?  Have the Orioles (and by extension the other MLB teams looking for starters) fallen for the ruse? 

[Luke-OH]

It seems like you are ok with FIP when it fits your argument.

On 4/3/2016 at 12:50 AM, cimota said:

They named the best pitcher award after him long before WAR existed. He lead the league in numerous categories like wins, era, shutouts multiple years. Lead the league in FIP 7 times. I think it is a little bit ore than most inning pitched. But comparing players from different eras is not easy.

 

[atomic]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Explain how Andrew Cashner was signed to a contract that seems to much more closely align to his FIP-based value than his ERA-based value?  Have the Orioles (and by extension the other MLB teams looking for starters) fallen for the ruse? 

His Career ERA+ is 102 his career FIP is 3.99.   So I don't see how Cashner is proving your point. 

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, cimota said:

His Career ERA+ is 102 his career FIP is 3.99.   So I don't see how Cashner is proving your point. 

You know that teams much more heavily weight last year in their calculations.  See: Hosmer, Eric.  Last year Cashner's FIP/ERA difference was over a run a game.  His contract is for about a win over replacement per year, which is very much in line with his 2017 FIP.

[backwardsk]

I was listening to a radio broadcast about the Nats ST.  They said it was the first time taking IF with the shift.  Under Williams and Baker, the Nationals had been reluctant to use the shift.  It got me thinking about the use of fielding metrics to describe a pitcher's success.  

If you take the same pitcher who is a groundball/low strikeout guy and put him in front of two defenses (one that incorporates shifts and one that does not) you'd expect them to have more success with the shifted defense.  

Has there been reporting, either by Fangraphs or something else, where they look at a pitcher's ability to get contact into the shift and how that may impact the "luck" factor?  

[Beef Supreme]

Yes, teams are going to look at 100 things, including BB/9, K/9 and HR/9 as well as BAA and BABIP, et cetera. For a free agent pitcher changing teams, it is likely that the BB/9 and  K/9 will be similar year-to-year, barring injury. However, HR/9 can be dramatically affected by ballpark and other factors, thus making the already weak "predictive value" of FIP even weaker. Why would they stake their reputations a ratio multiplied by the league-average ERA, thus squashing all results towards the median ERA?

No analytics department would use a formula that deems 2/3 of the available data inconsequential as the foundation on which they build their strategy of which free agents to target and what contract terms of offer. And if they did, any GM worth his salt would fire the lot of them. FIP is not even a simplistic shorthand to value players, like WAR. At best, it is a yellow flag that alerts the reader to review the individual components of FIP to see what actually changed.

[Can_of_corn]

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-andrew-cashner-acclimating-well/c-267502174

Won't be seeing much of him this spring.

[weams]

On 2/22/2018 at 9:27 AM, Babypowder said:

You mean Fanagraphs.

And all these silly analytics are ruining the game, these people working at fangraphs getting hired to work for MLB teams is just further evidence of its decay. These nerds have probably never even watched an entire baseball game, much less played in one.

I work too damn hard to let you nerds talk to me like this! I am a regional manager in charge of 49 people! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

or something like that.

Moral decay. Mopar. 

[Moose Milligan]

"Spring Training is all about getting my work in. For me, it's not so much about what the hitter is doing. It's what I need to do, which is commanding my stuff on both sides of the plate, up [and] down," Cashner said. "[I'm] still getting acclimated with all the plays. I think the 'A' games are to show something or prove something. I'll prove my stuff during the season."

 

Thinks mighty highly of himself.  

[Redskins Rick]

9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

"Spring Training is all about getting my work in. For me, it's not so much about what the hitter is doing. It's what I need to do, which is commanding my stuff on both sides of the plate, up [and] down," Cashner said. "[I'm] still getting acclimated with all the plays. I think the 'A' games are to show something or prove something. I'll prove my stuff during the season."

 

Thinks mighty highly of himself.  

Sounds he pretty much speaks the truth.

[Moose Milligan]

37 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sounds he pretty much speaks the truth.

Sounds like Kenny Powers to me.

[interloper]

I look forward to the Orioles doing that Orioles thing where they hide him in sim games all spring so that he's not at all prepared to go 5 innings in a ML game until roughly May. 

Love that! 

[Orioles0615]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

I look forward to the Orioles doing that Orioles thing where they hide him in sim games all spring so that he's not at all prepared to go 5 innings in a ML game until roughly May. 

Love that! 

Yea I don't know why the insist on hiding pitchers. Its like they don't want to know that they are bad