Tillman back. Are we happy?

[theobird]

2 minutes ago, Finisher said:

Does seem bizarre Tillman gets minor league offers from a couple other teams and we offer 3 million guaranteed. Also 1/10 if he pitches the full year after his historically bad year last year? Literally bidding against yourself.

Nope. That's not the case. They are optimistic to the tune of 3 million, after seeing him throw this offseason, that he can come back and pitch like Tillman pre-2017. If they are right, Tillman will earn 10 million and be well worth that. If they are wrong, it is a 3 million dollar risk that went bad and he is gone. They will not keep throwing him out there if he stinks again, because it will cost them a ton of money...7 million dollars worth. Good gamble imo.

[Satyr3206]

I guess there is always the possibility he fails the Physical.

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I wasn't a fan of a Major League deal for Tillman, but I agree with what you say here.    It's easy to swallow the 3M if he can't cut it.

When has Angelos swallowed a bad contract. He'll be on the 25 all year... who do we lose off the 40 to keep a washed up Tillman?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

When has Angelos swallowed a bad contract. He'll be on the 25 all year... who do we lose off the 40 to keep a washed up Tillman?

Travis Snider in 2015.

[backwardsk]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

When has Angelos swallowed a bad contract. He'll be on the 25 all year... who do we lose off the 40 to keep a washed up Tillman?

Delmon Young. (If 1/3 is considered bad).

A real bad contract that he swallowed?  Jay Gibbons.

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, cimota said:

3 million is what Brian Matusz made when we had to give up a competitive balance pick to get rid of him. 

Delmon Young was making $2.25M when he was released. 

[theobird]

Its a good gamble. A smart move. And how many times have you heard me say that about a DD move? If Tilly is healthy and can find some semblance of his former form, then great. If not, nothing ventured nothing gained. Geez, save your angst for the next really stupid move that our FO makes. It won't be long now....

[Sanfran327]

12 minutes ago, theobird said:

Its a good gamble. A smart move. And how many times have you heard me say that about a DD move? If Tilly is healthy and can find some semblance of his former form, then great. If not, nothing ventured nothing gained. Geez, save your angst for the next really stupid move that our FO makes. It won't be long now....

Totally agree. Shoot, sometimes you gotta go against the grain.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Finisher said:

So if Tillman pitches to like a 5-6 ERA and we have nothing behind him and stick with him, he's getting 1/10??

It won’t play out that way.   Let’s see what innings thresholds trigger the incentives.   My guess is they don’t kick in until 100+ innings, and then increase every 20 IP or so.

Meanwhile:

https://mobile.twitter.com/masnRoch/status/965666940005076993

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

3 mil is pennies.  They can easily cut their losses.  I just don't want to see him in the rotation past April if he struggles.  

The upside is that you get the Tillman of old at a significantly reduced price. 

We still need another starter. 

You do remember that Peter Angelos is the owner right? 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Finisher said:

Does seem bizarre Tillman gets minor league offers from a couple other teams and we offer 3 million guaranteed. Also 1/10 if he pitches the full year after his historically bad year last year? Literally bidding against yourself.

It's almost like we've seen them do this before? hmmm...... 

[Frobby]

Favorable take from MLBTradeRumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/orioles-resign-chris-tillman.html

[Tony-OH]

Let's also consider this scary thought.

Dan Duquette thinks Tillman is better than his inhouse candidates to fill the last two spots in the rotation. If you say no this doesn't mean that, I'd give you the fact that he just guaranteed a guy who hasn't pitched well since early June 2016, five times more than any of his inhouse candidates will pitch for in 2018.

Just imagine what happens if Gausman or Bundy get hurt this spring? Remember, Gausman has been a traditional slow starter and Bundy has never been able to pitch well through a whole season yet in the big leagues (He made just four July starts and three September starts before being shut down after his 9/18 start). They both have the potential to be very good, but they are not sure bets.

So If I get our current rotation it looks something like this:

1. Gausman - Coming off a down year and has never thrown over 190 or more innings in a season.
2. Bundy - Has never thrown more 170 innings in a season
3. Cashner - Coming off a very good season but posted peripherals that suggest a major downturn this season
4. Tillman - Hasn't pitched well since early June, diminished velocity and command. Walk rates have gone up for the last three years and no other team would give him a guaranteed contract.
5. Castro/Cortes/Wright/Mesa Jr./Ynoa/and a host of other AAAA guys.

Anyone else clearing their October schedule for a long playoff run?

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's also consider this scary thought.

Dan Duquette thinks Tillman is better than his inhouse candidates to fill the last two spots in the rotation. If you say no this doesn't mean that, I'd give you the fact that he just guaranteed a guy who hasn't pitched well since early June 2016, five times more than any of his inhouse candidates will pitch for in 2018.

Just imagine what happens if Gausman or Bundy get hurt this spring? Remember, Gausman has been a traditional slow starter and Bundy has never been able to pitch well through a whole season yet in the big leagues (He made just four July starts and three September starts before being shut down after his 9/18 start). They both have the potential to be very good, but they are not sure bets.

So If I get our current rotation it looks something like this:

1. Gausman - Coming off a down year and has never thrown over 190 or more innings in a season.
2. Bundy - Has never thrown more 170 innings in a season
3. Cashner - Coming off a very good season but posted peripherals that suggest a major downturn this season
4. Tillman - Hasn't pitched well since early June, diminished velocity and command. Walk rates have gone up for the last three years and no other team would give him a guaranteed contract.
5. Castro/Cortes/Wright/Mesa Jr./Ynoa/and a host of other AAAA guys.

Anyone else clearing their October schedule for a long playoff run?

And to add to that, if the Orioles aren't competitive, it doesn't matter if Tillman somehow manages to return to peak form. He'll walk or be expensive after the season is over. This, like the Cashner move, smacks of trying to look like trying, but really just treading water for the next FO/manager.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's also consider this scary thought.

Dan Duquette thinks Tillman is better than his inhouse candidates to fill the last two spots in the rotation. If you say no this doesn't mean that, I'd give you the fact that he just guaranteed a guy who hasn't pitched well since early June 2016, five times more than any of his inhouse candidates will pitch for in 2018.

Just imagine what happens if Gausman or Bundy get hurt this spring? Remember, Gausman has been a traditional slow starter and Bundy has never been able to pitch well through a whole season yet in the big leagues (He made just four July starts and three September starts before being shut down after his 9/18 start). They both have the potential to be very good, but they are not sure bets.

So If I get our current rotation it looks something like this:

1. Gausman - Coming off a down year and has never thrown over 190 or more innings in a season.
2. Bundy - Has never thrown more 170 innings in a season
3. Cashner - Coming off a very good season but posted peripherals that suggest a major downturn this season
4. Tillman - Hasn't pitched well since early June, diminished velocity and command. Walk rates have gone up for the last three years and no other team would give him a guaranteed contract.
5. Castro/Cortes/Wright/Mesa Jr./Ynoa/and a host of other AAAA guys.

Anyone else clearing their October schedule for a long playoff run?

If Duquette is done signing pitchers, then no.   I think this team is .500ish if things go reasonably well, but not a serious playoff contender.

I may be in the minority, but I’m not worried about a “long playoff run” right now.    I want to have a fun summer.   It’s possible Tillman could help make that happen, though it’s also quite possible he’ll be just as bad as last year.