Most important player for 2018?

[Just Regular]

17 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Aw crap Bundy got lit up

Hey now - I actually think the early spring blowup is a hallmark of the quality veteran SP.  Not as entertaining as some of the "maladies" that cause veteran hitters to miss games, but part of the spring training vibe nonetheless.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I know, I know, all of this is Spring Training, but I would rather have my team playing good in preseason games than playing bad.

[mdbdotcom]

I see Chris Davis as the most important player on the team, mainly because his salary means he will never be benched. The question is, which Chris Davis is going to show up?

1. If he under-performs significantly, as he did while earning -0.1 WAR last year, he will again be the dead zone in the middle of the lineup; the ultimate rally killer.
2. If he performs at 2016 level (3.0 WAR, his third best year), he'll be a productive contributor, if not the force he was in 2015 and 2013. And that's probably the most we can expect, because 2015 and 2013 were the only seasons in which he was the dominating force in the lineup he's being paid to be.
3. But since that potential is there, it should be noted that he is capable of being as feared a hitter as Stanton or Judge. When he is Crush Davis he makes comebacks feel more likely and is a threat to break a game wide open. I should note that he's never had a season like this in a playoff year. 

Winning with Chris performing like #1 (above) would be a very tall task. The Orioles need him to perform in a range somewhere from #2 to #3. That need doesn't exist for any other single player. That's why I think he's the most important player on the team.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, oriole said:

Even though the SP doing well is most important for a productive season, it's shared between 5+ starters and honestly, they all need to do well enough so the load is shared.

As far as individual players, I gotta say Chris Davis. If we can get a legit feared slugger in the lineup that's going to do good things for the guys hitting around him. Also anything to take the pressure off Jones can have a real positive effect on his hitting. Jones is at his worst when he is trying to be the hero.

I keep coming back to the fact that in Davis’ best two years, we didn’t make the playoffs, whereas we won the division when he batted below .200 and missed the final month with a suspension.   It would help if he bounced back, but any starting pitcher in our rotation is more important IMO.    This team has shown that it wins a lot when our starters give them a fighting chance.  

[mdbdotcom]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I keep coming back to the fact that in Davis’ best two years, we didn’t make the playoffs, whereas we won the division when he batted below .200 and missed the final month with a suspension.   It would help if he bounced back, but any starting pitcher in our rotation is more important IMO.    This team has shown that it wins a lot when our starters give them a fighting chance.  

I would agree with this if we could consider the starting pitchers as one person for the sake of this exercise, but I don't think any one starter is more important than Davis. If the pitching is so fragile that every one of them needs to have a good year for the team to have a good year, then we are probably doomed.

As for Chris Tillman, I think there's a decent chance that he won't make the team. Should he be cut, I'm hoping that means his place will be taken by someone better.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

I would agree with this if we could consider the starting pitchers as one person for the sake of this exercise, but I don't think any one starter is more important than Davis. If the pitching is so fragile that every one of them needs to have a good year for the team to have a good year, then we are probably doomed.

9 hitters in the lineup, but only 5 starting pitchers at a time.   If Tillman has a good year, he’ll pitch slightly more than 1/9 of the total innings for this team.    Davis if healthy will have slightly fewer than 1/9 of the plate appearances.   

Well, we could debate it all day I suppose.    I asked the question because I wanted different opinions, and I’m glad to have yours.   

[oriole]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

9 hitters in the lineup, but only 5 starting pitchers at a time.   If Tillman has a good year, he’ll pitch slightly more than 1/9 of the total innings for this team.    Davis if healthy will have slightly fewer than 1/9 of the plate appearances.   

Well, we could debate it all day I suppose.    I asked the question because I wanted different opinions, and I’m glad to have yours.   

Do you buy into the notion that if one hitter is pitched around then that gives the hitters around him better pitches? Meaning...if Davis does well enough then his success  will radiate throughout a portion of the lineup. The same doesn't seem to be true with pitching. 

 

I totally agree that the SP is the most important part of a successful season but each individual pitcher has less effect on the staff as a whole than an individual hitter does to the rest of the lineup. 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, oriole said:

Do you buy into the notion that if one hitter is pitched around then that gives the hitters around him better pitches? Meaning...if Davis does well enough then his success  will radiate throughout a portion of the lineup. The same doesn't seem to be true with pitching. 

 

I totally agree that the SP is the most important part of a successful season but each individual pitcher has less effect on the staff as a whole than an individual hitter does to the rest of the lineup. 

No, I don’t really buy into the idea that one hitter’s success affects the guys ahead or behind him very much.    I’m not going to say it’s zero in every instance, but it’s pretty insignificant in most cases IMO.

For example, Davis hit 4th in the majority of the games in both 2015 (great year) and 2016 (mediocre year).   In 2015, the batters who batted 3rd walked 52 times; in 2016, they walked 45 times.

[now]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

9 hitters in the lineup, but only 5 starting pitchers at a time.   If Tillman has a good year, he’ll pitch slightly more than 1/9 of the total innings for this team.    Davis if healthy will have slightly fewer than 1/9 of the plate appearances.   

Well, we could debate it all day I suppose.    I asked the question because I wanted different opinions, and I’m glad to have yours.   

That's an interesting question, comparing impact of positon players to pitchers. If you add fielding chances then the position players have different impacts among them. If you add leverage then relievers and starters will all have different calculations applied. As you point out, a starter with more IP will have a chance to outrank position players in impact. I wonder if there is a comprehensive chart ranking all of the above in terms of relative impact on team performance. I know Bill James did it long ago for positional impact... just wondering if the list could integrate starting and relief pitchers too.

[oriole]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, I don’t really buy into the idea that one hitter’s success affects the guys ahead or behind him very much.    I’m not going to say it’s zero in every instance, but it’s pretty insignificant in most cases IMO.

For example, Davis hit 4th in the majority of the games in both 2015 (great year) and 2016 (mediocre year).   In 2015, the batters who batted 3rd walked 52 times; in 2016, they walked 45 times.

You can't use walks as evidence. We both know the only time an Orioles hitter walks is when they forget to swing.

 

I can't pick a SP still for this exercise. Tillman could pitch like he used to but Cashner could experience a Gallardo type of crash and burn along with Bundy and Gausman pitching similarly to last season and that probably isn't enough to get this team a wild card.

[now]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Dylan Bundy.

Could you elaborate? I would go with the interpretation of most variability... i.e., Tillman or Davis. Whereas Bundy seems to me to have a more predictable outcome. Do you see a bigger range of floor-to-ceiling for DB in 2018?

[OriolesMagic83]

Lew Ford.  Bring back the mojo.  His presence in the clubhouse is worth 5 WAR minimum.

[Kaven5]

Caleb Joseph.

He must remain healthy. Deal with a staff that will need help. Pressure to at least contribute offensively on a team that must score to win. 

 

 

[mdbdotcom]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

No, I don’t really buy into the idea that one hitter’s success affects the guys ahead or behind him very much.    I’m not going to say it’s zero in every instance, but it’s pretty insignificant in most cases IMO.

For example, Davis hit 4th in the majority of the games in both 2015 (great year) and 2016 (mediocre year).   In 2015, the batters who batted 3rd walked 52 times; in 2016, they walked 45 times.

2016 was Davis' third best year. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

2016 was Davis' third best year. 

Davis had a higher OPS in 2012, plus he won that extra innings game in Boston as a pitcher.